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Nigeria’s Unemployment Rate Jumps to 23.1% in Q3

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  • Nigeria’s Unemployment Rate Jumps to 23.1% in Q3

The high unemployment rate in Nigeria has taken a new turn in the third quarter (Q3) of 2018 despite efforts by the current administration to enhance job creation and deepen growth.

The number of economically active people (between age 15-64) rose from 111.1 million in Q3 of 2017 to 115.5 million in Q3, 2018, according to a Labour Force Statistics released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Wednesday.

The total number of people in the labour force, those who are able and willing to work, increased from 75.94 million in Q3 2015 to 80.66 in Q3 2016; 85.1 million in Q3 2017 and 90.5 million in Q3, 2018.

The total number of people with jobs rose from 68.4 million in Q3 2015, to 68.72 million in Q3 2016, to 69.09 million in Q3 2017 and 69.54 million in Q3 2018.

While the number of people in full-time employment, those working at least 40 hours a week, climbed from 51.1 million in the same quarter of 2017 to 51.3 million in Q3 2018.

The total number of people in part-time employment or underemployment, which decreased from 13.20 million in Q3 2015 to 11.19 million in Q3 2016, increased from 18,02 million filed in Q3 of 2017 to 18.21 million in the third quarter of 2018.

The total number of unemployed persons, those that did nothing at all or worked less than 20 hours a week rose from 17.6 million recorded in Q4 of 2017 to 20.9 million in Q3 2018.

However, out of the 20.9 million classified as unemployed, the NBS said 11.1 million of the number did some form of work but with far too few hours to be officially tagged employed. The remaining 9.7 million did nothing as 8.8 million of that number were first-time job seekers that have never worked before.

Therefore, putting the national unemployment rate at 23.1 percent in the third quarter of 2018, up from the 18.8 percent filed in Q3 2017.

Again, the combined number of unemployment and underemployment rates rose to 43.3 per cent in the quarter, a 3.3 per cent increase when compared to 40 per cent of Q3, 2017.

The youths unemployment rate declined slightly from 30.50 per cent in the second quarter of 2018 to 29.7 per cent in the third quarter. Still, higher than the 25.5 per cent filed in Q3, 2017. Youths underemployment stood at 25.7 per cent in Q3, 2018.

The combined number of youths either unemployed or underemployed rose to 55.4 per cent in the quarter, higher than the 52.6 per cent from the same period of 2017. Another indication of rising youth unemployment and underemployment when compared to the national combined rate of 43.3 per cent.

Despite six consecutive quarters of economic growth, Nigeria has failed to enhance new job creation and sustained old ones. A substantial number of the 9.7 million unemployed Nigerians said they were previously employed but lost their jobs due to harsh economic condition.

The economy grew at 1.81 per cent in the third quarter but that has failed to translate to job security or new job creation, not even numerous capital projects were able to absorb enough workers to ease growing unemployment rate.

Rising unemployment rate, falling forex reserves, high-interest rates, and weak consumer confidence in the economy are some of the factors impacting growth in recent months, and with the global oil price trading at $58 a barrel, far below the $86 attained in October, Nigeria may struggle even more in 2019 if global economy continued to slow amid protectionism.

President Buhari earlier today presented the 2019 proposed budget of N8.8 trillion to the joint session of the senate and house of representative. Again, funding remained a concern as national debt as already risen to over $73 billion.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

Economy

Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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Gas-Pipeline

The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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Economy

IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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Economy

South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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