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The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) Unemployment Data Revision Sparks Controversy

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U.K. unemployment rate

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released its revised methodology yesterday, revealing a 4.1% unemployment rate in the first quarter of 2023, down from 5.3% in the preceding quarter.

However, this revision has ignited criticism and raised concerns among analysts.

Critics argue that the new methodology, although aligned with the International Labour Organisation (ILO) standard, may not offer an accurate reflection of Nigeria’s unemployment situation.

They fear it could mislead policymakers and the government, preventing effective responses to this critical socioeconomic issue.

The Statistician-General of the Federation and Chief Executive of the NBS, Semiu Adeniran, emphasized that the updated numbers don’t alter the grim reality of unemployment in the country. He urged the government not to become complacent in addressing this pressing challenge.

The revised methodology highlights that a significant portion of employed individuals in Nigeria work less than 40 hours per week, with underemployment rates at 12.2% in Q1 2023. Self-employment and farming activities remain dominant sources of income for Nigerians.

Despite the reduction in the unemployment rate, experts caution that the change in methodology does not necessarily represent an improvement in the employment landscape.

According to the ILO definition, underemployment remains a significant concern, standing at 21.2% in Q1, compared to 13.7% in Q4 2022.

However, some have expressed reservations about the new methodology and argue that international comparability should not overshadow the relevance of data for policymaking.

They stress the importance of aligning government objectives with the data collected by the NBS.

The Centre for Social Justice (CSJ) vehemently rejected the NBS findings, claiming they do not reflect the reality of Nigeria’s economic challenges.

The CSJ calls on the government to create more decent jobs and improve the livelihoods of its citizens.

Wealth Management and Business Development Consultant, Mr. Ibrahim Shelleng, believes that the revised methodology offers a better understanding of unproductive segments of the population.

Still, it may underestimate the scale of unemployment and underemployment in Nigeria due to its focus on productive output over hours worked.

President of the Association of Capital Market Academics of Nigeria, Prof. Uche Uwaleke, expressed concerns about the low sample size and the inclusion of apprentices in the new methodology, suggesting it could lead to erroneous policy decisions.

The debate over the methodology underscores the importance of ensuring that data aligns with the unique conditions prevalent in the country to facilitate effective policy responses to unemployment.

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Economy

Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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Gas-Pipeline

The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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