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Nigeria’s Unemployment Rate Improved to 4.1% in Q1, 2023 as NBS Adopts New Computing Model

Approximately 76.7% of working-age Nigerians were engaged in some form of employment during the first quarter of 2023, compared to 73.6% in the previous quarter.

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Unemployment

Nigeria’s unemployment rate has dropped to 4.1% in the first quarter (Q1) of 2023 as the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) adopts a new data collection and analysis model.

This represents a significant drop from the 5.3% reported in the final quarter of 2022.

Key Highlights of the Report

Improved Employment Rate: One of the standout findings in the report is the increase in the employment rate.

Approximately 76.7% of working-age Nigerians were engaged in some form of employment during the first quarter of 2023, compared to 73.6% in the previous quarter.

Shift in Work Patterns: The data also indicates a shift in work patterns, with more Nigerians involved in their own businesses or engaging in farming activities.

Self-employment and agriculture accounted for 75.4% of employment in Q1 2023, up from 73.1% in Q4 2022.

Underemployment Decrease: The underemployment rate, which measures those working less than 40 hours per week but willing to work more, decreased to 12.2% in Q1 2023 from 13.7% in Q4 2022.

This is seen as a positive development, indicating that more Nigerians are finding jobs that better match their skills and preferences.

Informal Employment Remains High: Informal employment, including agriculture, still makes up the majority of employment in Nigeria.

In Q1 2023, 92.6% of employed individuals were in the informal sector, down slightly from 93.5% in the previous quarter.

The Paradigm Shift: A New Computing Model

The adoption of this model, which incorporates modern statistical techniques and aligns with international best practices, has breathed new life into the country’s labor market data collection and analysis.

Sharper Definitions: The revamped computing model places a sharper focus on definitions and concepts related to employment.

Employed persons are now defined as those working for pay or profit for at least one hour in the last 7 days.

Underemployed individuals are those working less than 40 hours per week but actively seeking more work, while unemployed persons are those not in employment but actively searching and available for work.

Redefining Working-Age Population: The revised methodology broadens the working-age population to include individuals aged 15 and above.

It also introduces a distinction between commercial and subsistence agriculture, providing a more nuanced view of employment in the agricultural sector.

A Shift in Employment Patterns: The report also reveals a notable shift in employment patterns. More Nigerians are now involved in their own businesses or engaged in farming activities, with self-employment and agriculture accounting for 75.4% of employment in Q1 2023, up from 73.1% in Q4 2022.

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Economy

Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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Gas-Pipeline

The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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Economy

IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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Economy

South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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