Nigeria’s inflation rate slowed in December 2025 following a combination of easing food prices and a methodological adjustment to the Consumer Price Index (CPI), according to the latest inflation report released in January 2026.
Headline inflation stood at 15.15 percent year-on-year in December 2025, a sharp decline from 34.80 percent recorded in December 2024. On a month-on-month basis, inflation eased to 0.54 percent, down from 1.22 percent in November, signalling a slowdown in the pace of price increases.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) attributed the steep year-on-year moderation largely to a revision of the index reference period, which now uses the average CPI for the full year 2024 as the base (2024 = 100).
The adjustment was implemented to neutralise base-effect distortions that would have artificially inflated the December 2025 inflation reading if a single-month reference period had been retained.
The CPI index rose to 131.2 points in December 2025, compared with 130.5 points in November, confirming that prices continued to rise, albeit at a slower pace.
Food Inflation Turns Negative Month-on-Month
Food inflation was the primary driver of December’s disinflation. The food inflation rate fell to 10.84 percent year-on-year, from 39.84 percent in December 2024. On a month-on-month basis, food inflation declined by 0.36 percent, a rare contraction in food prices.
According to the NBS, the decline was driven by lower average prices for key food items like tomatoes, garri, eggs, potatoes, beans, onions, vegetables, millet, wheat grain, and plantain. The moderation in food prices provided temporary relief to households after months of elevated food-led inflation.
Despite the December slowdown, the 12-month average food inflation rate remained elevated at 22.00 percent, reflecting the cumulative impact of prolonged price pressures over the year.
Core Inflation Remains Elevated
Core inflation, which excludes farm produce and energy, continued to reflect underlying price rigidity across services and non-food items.
Core inflation stood at 18.63 percent year-on-year in December 2025, down from 29.28 percent in December 2024.
On a month-on-month basis, core inflation eased to 0.58 percent, from 1.28 percent in November, indicating slower price increases but not outright price declines.
The twelve-month average core inflation rate stood at 23.49 percent, underscoring persistent structural inflation pressures across housing, healthcare, education, transport, and personal services.
Urban and Rural Inflation Diverge
Inflation dynamics diverged across urban and rural areas in December.
Urban inflation stood at 14.85 percent year-on-year, down sharply from 37.29 percent in December 2024, while month-on-month inflation increased marginally to 0.99 percent.
In contrast, rural inflation declined to 14.56 percent year-on-year, from 32.47 percent, and recorded a month-on-month contraction of 0.55 percent.
The twelve-month average inflation rate stood at 23.46 percent for urban areas and 21.93 percent for rural areas.
Divisional Contributions Highlight Persistent Cost Pressures
Food and non-alcoholic beverages remained the largest contributor to headline inflation, accounting for 6.06 percentage points of the year-on-year increase.
Other notable contributors included restaurants and accommodation services, transport, housing and utilities, education, and healthcare, reflecting continued cost pressures across essential services.
State Inflation Shows Wide Disparities
At the state level, Abia (19.03 percent), Ogun (18.80 percent), and Katsina (18.66 percent) recorded the highest headline inflation rates on a year-on-year basis in December 2025. Sokoto (8.61 percent), Plateau (9.05 percent), and Kaduna (10.38 percent) recorded the lowest rates.
On a month-on-month basis, inflation increased most sharply in Cross River, Abia, and Delta, while Ondo, Gombe, and Jigawa recorded declines.
Food inflation was highest year-on-year in Yobe, Ogun, and Abuja, while Akwa Ibom, Sokoto, and Plateau recorded the slowest increases. Several states, including Plateau, Rivers, and Zamfara, recorded month-on-month food price declines.
Inflation Still Elevated on a Structural Basis
Despite December’s sharp moderation, the twelve-month average headline inflation rate stood at 23.01 percent, highlighting the persistence of elevated price levels across the economy.
The data suggest that while Nigeria has entered a phase of disinflation, driven largely by food-price easing and base-year adjustments, underlying inflation pressures remain, particularly within the services and core segments of the economy.
For policymakers, the report reinforces the need for sustained exchange-rate stability, improved food supply logistics, and cautious monetary policy calibration, as the economy transitions from inflation acceleration to gradual moderation.
