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Naira’s Decline Sparks Concerns of Impending Petrol Price Surge

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Nigerian petrol station

Oil marketers have raised concerns over a possible increase in the pump price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), commonly known as petrol, as the value of the Nigerian naira continues to decline against the United States dollar.

The naira’s exchange rate on the black market fell from N900/dollar on Wednesday to N920/dollar on Thursday, sparking worries about the sustainability of the current petrol price.

A few weeks ago, the naira reached N945/dollar on the parallel market but subsequently recovered.

However, it has once again started depreciating this week, causing unease among economic stakeholders and those in the oil and gas sector.

Oil dealers and marketers argue that with the exchange rate of N920/$, the current petrol price of N617/litre cannot be maintained.

They project a cost of between N680/litre to N700/litre for PMS, considering the N920/$ exchange rate. They explained that when petrol prices were set at N590/litre to N617/litre, the forex rate was around N750/$ to N800/$.

While the Federal Government has insisted on not increasing petrol prices, the oil marketers believe that the government may be secretly subsidizing the commodity based on the current exchange rate reality.

This implies that the government might be spending approximately N90 as subsidy on petrol due to the naira’s depreciation against the dollar.

The ex-depot price of petrol was reported to be around N585/litre on Thursday. With the projected cost of N680/litre, it suggests that the government might need to spend about N95/litre as subsidy.

Given that petrol consumption in Nigeria is approximately 52 million litres daily, this could lead to a monthly expenditure of about N153 billion on fuel subsidy.

Despite assurances from the President and the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation Limited (NNPCL) that there would be no increase in the pump price of PMS, oil marketers insist that rising exchange rates could drive up petrol prices.

They argue that the only way to maintain the current prices is if the government is quietly subsidizing fuel.

The Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) has also warned that it will revert to the status quo should there be any further petrol price hike.

The Trade Union Congress (TUC) has called for a thorough investigation of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC) in response to the ongoing concerns.

The naira’s continued weakness in the parallel market has exacerbated the situation, despite efforts by the Central Bank of Nigeria to stabilize it.

Bureau De Change operators reported selling rates between 916/dollar and 920/dollar, further highlighting the currency’s vulnerability.

Oil marketers have called on the President to personally inspect Nigeria’s refineries and ensure their revitalization.

They believe that with the refineries in operation, the country can reduce its dependence on imported petroleum products, ultimately stabilizing fuel prices and the exchange rate.

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Economy

Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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Gas-Pipeline

The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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