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Nigeria’s Unemployment Rate Surges to 5.0% in Q3 2023

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First Generation Unemployment

Nigeria’s unemployment rate surged to 5.0% in the third quarter (Q3) of 2023, representing an increase of 0.8% from the previous quarter, according to recent statistical data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

The latest figures underscore the persistent challenges facing Nigeria’s labor market, with the increase in unemployment posing fresh concerns for policymakers grappling with economic recovery efforts amidst global uncertainties.

Among the most affected demographics, the unemployment rate among youth aged 15-24 years surged to 8.6% in Q3 2023, representing a significant increase of 1.4% compared to the previous quarter.

Urban areas also experienced a slight uptick in unemployment, with the urban unemployment rate rising to 6.0% in Q3 2023, a modest increase of 0.1% from the previous quarter.

This trend reflects the complex dynamics of urban employment and underscores the need for targeted policies to address urban job creation and economic resilience.

Moreover, the data revealed that the combined rate of unemployment and time-related underemployment as a share of the labor force population increased to 17.3% in Q3 2023 from 15.5% in the previous quarter.

This broader measure of labor market underutilization highlights the multifaceted nature of Nigeria’s employment challenges, calling for comprehensive strategies to promote inclusive and sustainable job creation.

Key Highlights

  • The labour force participation rate among the working-age population declined to 79.5% in Q3 2023 compared to 80.4% in Q2 2023.
  • The employment-to-population ratio was 75.6% in Q3 2023 with a decrease of 1.5% compared to a ratio of Q2 2023.
  • The combined rate of unemployment and time-related underemployment as a share of the labour force population (LU2) increased to 17.3% in Q3 2023 from 15.5% in Q2 2023.
  • About 87.3% of workers were self-employed in Q3 2023.
  • The proportion of workers in Wage Employment in Q3 2023 was 12.7%
  • The unemployment rate increased significantly in Q3 2023 at 5.0%. This is an increase of 0.8% from Q2 2023.
  • The rate of unemployment among persons with post-secondary education was 7.8% in Q3 2023
  • The unemployment rate among youth aged (15-24 years) was 8.6% in Q3 2023. Increase of 1.4% compared to Q2 2023.
  • The unemployment rate in urban areas was 6.0% in Q3 2023, a slight increase of 0.1% from Q2 2023.
  • Time-related underemployment in Q3 2023 was 12.3%, showing a slight increase of 0.5% from the rate recorded in Q2 2023. This shows an increase of 1.4% compared to the rate in Q4 2022.
  • 4.1% of the working-age population was in subsistence agriculture in Q3 2023.
  • Informal employment rate in Q3 2023 was 92.3%, while Q2 2023 was 92.7%.
  • Percentage of youth Not in Employment, Education or Training (NEET Rate) was 13.7% in Q3 2023.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Economy

Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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Gas-Pipeline

The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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Economy

IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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Economy

South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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