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Australian Dollar at Risk of Dropping to 40 US Cents – BT Investment

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Australian dollar

Vima Gor, an investment manager who oversees the equivalent of about $11 billion in fixed income assets at BTIM in Sydney on Thursday predicted that the Reserve Bank of Australia will be forced to cut rate from the present 1.75 percent to 1 percent or even lower. According to Gor, the composition of Australia’s recent economic growth data is weak because of the risks posed by the country’s reliance on foreign capital.

“The Australian dollar is at far more risk than most people think,” wrote Gor. “A shock downside could easily see it move to 40 cents against the U.S. dollar if current trends continue, commodities fall to lows again and economic growth deteriorates.”

The investment manager highlighted the deficits in Australia’s current account and its budget, and said that the country’s top credit rating is likely to be reviewed within the next few months.

“The move towards zero for the RBA will be the first for a country so reliant on foreign capital,” he said. “Low rates in an economy like Australia will genuinely be a test of the stability of an economy that has a very specific relationship with the rest of the world.”

The local currency, which traded at 74.14 US cents as of 12:18 p.m. on Friday in Sydney has averaged 88 cents over the past 10 years and has not been lower than 47.76 US cents recorded in 2001. Gor, 40 US cents prediction is lower than the 2016 analysts forecast of 72 US cents and even higher in subsequent years.

Gor, who last month said it is possible the RBA would follow Europe and Japan in taking its rates below zero, has a different view from majority of analysts that predicted 72 US cents for the Australian dollar by the end of 2016 and even higher in subsequent years.

CEO/Founder Investors King Ltd, a foreign exchange research analyst, contributing author on New York-based Talk Markets and Investing.com, with over a decade experience in the global financial markets.

Forex

Naira Exchange Rate Improves as CBN Plans to Flood Economy With $20 Billion Diaspora Remittances

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Nigeria 1000 notes

The Naira to US Dollar exchange rate improved by N10 to N490 on Tuesday following the Central Bank of Nigeria’s new directive that allows recipients of diaspora remittances to receive their fund in foreign currency (US Dollar) or via their ordinary domiciliary account.

The move was after the apex bank blamed the parallel market for the wide foreign exchange rate and cautioned analysts for using speculative rates as the real Naira/US dollar rate.

Therefore, the apex bank decided to inject $20 billion annual diaspora remittances into the real sector of the economy and hurt the activities of unscrupulous individuals at the parallel market.

Investors King expects this to gradually moderate the nation’s foreign exchange rate against global counterparts, deepen business activities and fast track economic recovery.

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CBN Amends Forex Receipt as Naira Hits Record Low

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Naira Dollar Exchange Rate

In a bid to simplify and finally liberalize the receipt of diaspora remittances, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has amended its receipt procedures to allow beneficiaries of diaspora remittances receive such inflows in foreign currency (US Dollars).

The apex bank stated in a circular signed by Dr. O.S. Nnaji, Director Trade and Exchange Department, CBN.

In the circular, recipients of remittances can now receive funds in either foreign currency cash (US Dollars) or into their ordinary domiciliary account.

While the International Money Transfer Operators (IMTOs) will henceforth receive diaspora remittances in foreign currency through the designated bank of their choice.

The CBN plans to ease forex scarcity, speed up the recovery process and checkmate the activities of speculators and hoarders at the black by injecting diaspora remittances estimated at about $20 billion per year into the real economy.

This is expected to not just improve business activities but also moderate foreign exchange rate from the current N500/US$ and move the central bank a step closer to unifying the nation’s foreign exchange rates.

The circular partly reads “In an effort to liberalize, simplify and improve the receipt and administration of diaspora remittances into Nigeria, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) wishes to announce as follows;

“Beneficiaries of Diaspora Remittances through International Money Transfer Operators (IMTOs) shall henceforth receive such inflows in foreign currency (US Dollars) or into their ordinary domiciliary account. Such recipients of remittances may have the option of receiving these funds in foreign currency cash (US Dollars) or into their ordinary domiciliary account.”

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Naira Devaluation Pushed Exchange Rate to N500/US$ at Black Market

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NAIRA

Naira to United States Dollar exchange rate plunged to N500 on Monday after the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) devalued the Naira by N6 on Friday amid growing scarcity.

At the current rate, the local currency has lost N140 per US dollar when compared with N360 it was sold in the same month of 2019 and N5 compared to N495 it exchanged on Friday.

In an effort to ease pressure on the nation’s foreign reserves and unify foreign exchange rates in line with the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank’s requirement for loans, the CBN devalued the official exchange rate by N6 from N379/US$ to N385/US$ and directed bureau de change operators to sell at N392/US$, up from N386/US$.

However, with importers and businesses looking to meet the usual high demand for goods in December pushing demand for the United States dollar off the roof, Naira’s value has continued to plummet despite efforts by the CBN to prop up its value.

Against the British Pound, the Naira declined to N650, down from N620 it exchanged last week. This depreciation continues against the Euro common currency as the local currency declined to N585.

Lack of liquidity due to the weak foreign reserves, low oil prices and weak demand for the commodity amid production cuts by OPEC and allies is hurting CBN’s ability to effectively intervene at the nation’s foreign exchange markets.

The apex bank usually sells forex to dealers to ease scarcity and facilitate trades. However, lack of foreign revenue generation has forced the CBN to reduce its weekly forex sales to $10,000 per bureau de change operator despite reopening of the economy pushing demand for forex further up.

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