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Forex Weekly Outlook June 13 – 17

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Forex Weekly Outlook June 13 – 17

 

The dollar rallied again last week after crude oil prices plunged and commodity backed currencies followed suit, but the uncertainties surrounding global market ahead of Federal Reserve meeting this week and Britain’s referendum later in the month continues.

Last week, Fed Chair Janet Yellen said interest rate hikes are coming but gave no clue as to when, while explaining that the economy has registered considerable growth towards Fed’s goals of maximum employment and price stability, she said a shift in the economic outlook will necessitate a corresponding shift in Fed’s policy. Also the US unemployment claims improved from 268,000 to 264,000 following a six-year low nonfarm payrolls report in May. Given the current market condition, I will be trading EURUSD, AUDJPY and last week pairs.

EURUSD

The 19-nation currency, Euro is enmeshed in brexit and as such vulnerable, even with 0.6 percent revised economic growth in the first quarter. The currency remains unattractive as investors continued to seek less volatile currency with predictable direction. On the other hand, the US dollar is moderately stable with rate hike off the table, and I believe Fed’s positive assertion of the economy has renewed interest in the US dollar compared to the Euro.

outlook

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Again, the EURUSD chart shows the pair has been unable to breakout of the channel started in October, and failed again six weeks ago after reaching 1.1614. Last week’s candlestick further confirmed bearish continuation by closing as a dark cloud cover into previous bullish candlestick. This week, as long as price remains below 1.1338, I am bearish on EURUSD with 1.1090 as the target.

US retail sales, building permits and inflation reports are due later in the week.

AUDJPY

Since CPI data showed, Australian inflation fell 0.2 percent in the first quarter of the year, the Aussie dollar has lost about 827 pips. Currently, the commodity-backed currency is being weighed upon by drop in commodity prices and heightened global risks. With all the positive economic data, ranging from the fastest growth rate in four years to low unemployment rate, the currency remains unattractive as investors seem to doubt the viability of Governor Glenn Stevens claims regarding the economic outlook, especially with the fact that Australia depend on struggling China for exports and most of her manufacturing.

In fact, an investment manager who oversees the equivalent of about $11 billion in fixed income assets at BTIM in Sydney, Vima Gor published an odd analysis on Thursday, saying the Australian dollar is at far more risk than most people think, and predicted 40 cents.

While Japanese yen remain attractive and projected to be even more in demand as investors scramble for safe haven assets to curtail possible shortfall of brexit as markets await referendum result.

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From the chart, this pair has been trading in channel since October 2014 and lost a total of 2,421 pips, but after RBA cut interest rate by 25 basis points in April, the pair has failed to sustain price above 80.82 resistance level. Another confirmation is the last two rejection candlesticks (shooting stars) confirming rejection of higher prices, this week I am bearish on AUDJPY provided price remains below 80.82 resistance level while keeping an eye on Australia’s unemployment report and BOJ monetary policy statement due on Thursday. My target will be 75.83.

Last Week Recap

GBPCAD plunged 544 pips last week amid brexit, and hits our 1.8480 price target. But this week 1.8117 support level is our temporary setback and with Canadian dollar more likely to retreat with oil prices. I will be cautious and look for a sell below 1.8105 (2016 low), while targeting 1.7755.

GBPCADDaily

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GBPCHF lost over 505 pips last week after closing the Monday gap during Asian trading session on Tuesday. But with our target one and two met (496 pips), I will be careful trading this pair this week for the simple fact that both paired currencies are prone to brexit’s effect. That being said, I am bearish on GBPCHF provided 1.3926 resistance level holds, with 1.3507 as target.

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USDJPY last week view is the same this week, “its failure to break 111.65 resistance level after three attempts, and eventually breaching 107.47 support level on Friday, suggest that the continuation of the downward trend has started and as long as investors are yet to know the fate of EU and UK regarding the referendum, and the US June rate hike decision off the table. The Japanese yen remain attractive, especially with G7 agreement hindering BOJ from intervening in its gains.”

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This week, as long as 107.47 resistance level holds, I am bearish on USDJPY with 105.21 as the first target and 102.17 second target.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Dollar

Dollar Hits Four-Month Low as Rate Cut Speculations Grow

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Forex Weekly Outlook March 6 - 10

The US dollar extended its decline, reaching the lowest level since early August as swap traders increased bets on a Federal Reserve interest rate cut as early as May.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index registered its fifth consecutive day of losses, reflecting concerns about a potential recession and dovish comments from the Fed that are prompting investors to speculate on a reversal of the central bank’s aggressive tightening cycle.

Global Head of Currency Strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co., Win Thin, emphasized the dollar’s vulnerability, stating, “The dollar remains vulnerable until we see a shift in market expectations for the Fed, and that may be a 2024 story.”

He added, “With the dollar rally stalled, it will take some firm real sector data to challenge the current dovish Fed narrative.”

Amid these developments, the New Zealand dollar led gains among Group-of-10 peers, propelled by the central bank’s warning of potential rate hikes in the coming year.

Simultaneously, the Japanese yen strengthened to a two-month high as concerns about elevated US rates diminished.

The prevailing narrative suggests that unless there is a notable change in market expectations for the Fed, the dollar is likely to remain under pressure, with potential shifts anticipated in 2024.

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Naira

Black Market Exchange Rate Today 28th November 2023

What is the Dollar to Naira exchange rate at the parallel market, known as the black market (Abokifx) today? As of November 28th, 2023, the dollar to naira exchange rate is 1 USD to 1157 NGN at the black market.

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New Naira notes

What is the Dollar to Naira exchange rate at the parallel market, known as the black market (Abokifx) today? As of November 28th, 2023, the dollar to naira exchange rate is 1 USD to 1157 NGN at the black market.

This means that for every one US dollar, you can exchange it for ₦1157, Investors King reports.

This digital business news platform has obtained the official dollar to naira exchange rate in Nigeria today including the Black Market rates, Bureau De Change (BDC) rate, and CBN rates.

How Much is Dollar to Naira Today in the Black Market?

This rate is subject to change depending on a variety of factors including global economic trends, political developments, and market fluctuations. However, you can buy and sell 1 USD at ₦1157 and ₦1153 as of the time of writing today.

What is the current exchange rate of the dollar to naira in the black market today?

According to Investors King, as of the time this report was filed, a dollar can be purchased at the Lagos parallel market (black market) for ₦1157 and sold for ₦1153.

Exchange Rate of Dollar To Naira in Black Market Today?

Dollar to Naira (USD to NGN) Black Market Exchange Rate Today
Selling Rate 1153
Buying Rate 1157

Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Naira Exchange Rates for Banks

Investors King understands that although the dollar to naira opened at N1157 per $1 in the parallel market today, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not acknowledge the parallel market, also referred to as the black market. The CBN has instructed individuals in need of forex to approach their bank as the I&E window is the sole recognized exchange.

On Tuesday, November 28th, 2023, individuals in the black market purchased one US dollar for N1157 and sold it for N1153. This shows that the value of the Naira declined when compared to Monday, November 27th, 2023 when the local currency was exchanged at N1155 to a Dollar and a Dollar was purchased at N1145.

To stay informed about the dollar to naira exchange rate, there are a number of reliable sources that you can turn to. Here are some tips for staying up-to-date:

  • Check the Central Bank of Nigeria’s website: The CBN is responsible for regulating the country’s monetary policy and is a reliable source for the latest exchange rates. You can check their website regularly for updates.
  • Follow financial news outlets: Financial news outlets such as Investors King, Bloomberg, Reuters, and CNBC provide regular updates on the global currency markets, including the dollar to naira exchange rate.
  • Use online currency converters: There are a number of online currency converters that allow you to quickly and easily check the exchange rate between the dollar and the naira.
  • Follow social media accounts of financial experts: Following social media accounts of financial experts such as analysts, economists, and financial advisors can give you valuable insights into the latest trends in the currency markets.

By staying informed about the dollar-to-naira exchange rate, you can make informed decisions when buying or selling foreign currencies. Whether you are a business owner looking to trade in foreign currencies or an individual looking to invest in the currency markets, knowledge of the latest exchange rates is key to success. Keep these tips in mind and stay informed about the latest trends in the global currency markets.

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Dollar

Dollar Declines Amid Rising Optimism on Fed Rate Cut Prospects

Global Markets React to Growing Confidence in Fed’s Cautious Stance

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U.S dollar - Investors King

The dollar faced a fourth consecutive day of decline, setting it on course for its worst month since November last year.

This trend is bolstered by increasing optimism among traders regarding the Federal Reserve’s trajectory toward rate cuts.

The South Korean won and Thai baht led the gains in Asia, with the won experiencing its most significant jump in almost two weeks.

Simultaneously, Treasuries stabilized after a previous rally, with yields on the two-year note, sensitive to the Fed’s rate path, hitting a one-week low.

The market sentiment reflects a broader positive outlook, with Wall Street forecasters becoming more upbeat about the prospects for the coming year.

Improved investor sentiment and reduced expectations of a recession have fueled this optimism, along with the belief that the Fed has completed its rate-hiking cycle, prompting a rally in the S&P 500.

Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab, cautioned about the potential consequences of rate cuts, stating, “If the market is right in expecting that rate cuts could start maybe even at the end of the first quarter, in the first half, that would require to some degree a weaker economic and labor market backdrop than what we’re seeing right now.”

Despite the positive market sentiment, concerns about the economic and labor market backdrop persist.

The Bloomberg US Treasury Index has turned positive for the year, reflecting slowing inflation and measured job growth that triggered a rally and sent yields plummeting.

Traders are closely monitoring economic data this week, including the Fed’s preferred measure of underlying inflation.

Also, corporate earnings reports from prominent firms such as Crowdstrike Holdings Inc., Salesforce Inc., and Dell Technologies Inc. will provide insights into the evolving landscape of cybersecurity priorities and corporate expenditure.

The Fed’s expressed concern about inflation persisting above the 3% target adds a layer of complexity to the market’s reaction, as analysts anticipate potential pushback against implied easing and the recent rally in bonds and shares.

As investors navigate through these evolving dynamics, gold remains stable near its highest level since May, supported by lower Treasury yields and expectations of impending Fed interest rate cuts.

Meanwhile, oil prices extend their decline as the market weighs the possibility of deeper output cuts from OPEC+ against signs of supply outpacing demand.

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