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Asian Markets Tumble Ahead of Critical US Inflation and Retail Sales Data

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Asian shares took a downward turn on Monday as investors braced themselves for crucial US inflation and retail sales data, which could have a major impact on the global outlook for interest rates.

This follows a spike in bond yields that has raised concerns among investors. To add to the uncertainty, news of the US Air Force shooting down a flying object near the Canadian border only added to the air of geopolitical mystery.

The officials declined to comment whether the object was similar to the large white Chinese balloon shot down earlier this month.

The MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan declined by 0.1% after losing 2.2% last week. Other markets including Japan’s Nikkei and South Korea also fell by 0.5% and 0.3%, respectively. S&P 500 futures were down 0.2%, and Nasdaq futures dipped 0.3%.

The direction of assets in the near term could well be determined by the US inflation and retail sales data this week, which could either slow or accelerate the recent rise in bond yields. Forecasts suggest a rise of 0.4% in headline and core consumer prices, with sales rebounding by 1.6%.

However, there is a risk of upward revision as a re-analysis of seasonal factors saw upward revisions to CPI in December and November, lifting core inflation to 4.3% from 3.1%.

Bruce Kasman, head of economic analysis at JPMorgan, expects core CPI to rise by 0.5% and sales to jump 2.2%. He believes that the recent tightening of labor markets in developed markets, along with the latest news, reinforces the conviction that a recession will eventually be necessary to bring inflation back to central bank comfort zones.

With a full slate of Fed officials speaking this week, the markets are likely to get a timely reaction to the data. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are at five-week highs of 3.75% after jumping 21 basis points last week, while two-year yields hit 4.51%.

The shift in yields has stabilized the dollar, especially against the euro, which slipped 1.1% last week to $1.0670.

The rise in yields and the dollar has put pressure on gold prices, which have been stuck at $1,862 an ounce compared to its early February peak of $1,959.

Meanwhile, oil prices have eased a bit after jumping on Friday when Russia announced plans to cut its daily output by 5% in March. Brent dipped 36 cents to $86.03 a barrel, while U.S. crude fell 35 cents to $79.37.

Is the CEO and Founder of Investors King Limited. He is a seasoned foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Business Insider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and other prominent platforms. With over two decades of experience in global financial markets, Olukoya is well-recognized in the industry.

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Crude Oil

Oil Prices Surge as Hurricane Threat Looms Over U.S. Gulf Coast

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Oil jumped in Asian trading on Monday as a potential hurricane system approached the U.S. Gulf Coast, and as markets recovered from a selloff following weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data on Friday.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose 72 cents, or 1.06%, to $68.39 a barrel while Brent crude oil was up 71 cents, or 1%, at $71.77 a barrel.

Prices had gained as much as $1 during early Asian trading before pulling back.

Analysts said the bounce was in part a reaction to a potential hurricane in the U.S. Gulf Coast.

A weather system in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is forecast to become a hurricane before it reaches the northwestern U.S. Gulf Coast, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said on Sunday.

The U.S. Gulf Coast accounts for some 60% of U.S. refining capacity.

“Sentiment recovered somewhat from last week’s selloff,” said independent market analyst Tina Teng.

At the Friday close, Brent had dropped 10% on the week to the lowest level since December 2021, while WTI fell 8% to its lowest close since June 2023 on weak jobs data in the U.S.

A highly anticipated U.S. government jobs report showed nonfarm payrolls increased less than market watchers had expected in August, rising by 142,000, and the July figure was downwardly revised to an increase of 89,000, which was the smallest gain since an outright decline in December 2020.

A decline in the jobless rate points to the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by just 25 basis points this month rather than a half-point rate cut, analysts said.

Lower interest rates typically increase oil demand by spurring economic growth and making oil cheaper for holders of non-dollar currencies.

But weak demand continued to cap price gains.

The weakness in China is driven by economic slowdown and inventory destocking, Jeff Currie, chief strategy officer of energy pathways at U.S. investment giant Carlyle Group, told the APPEC energy conference in Singapore on Monday.

Refining margins in Asia have slipped to their lowest seasonal levels since 2020 on weak demand from the two largest economies.

Fuel oil exports to the U.S. Gulf Coast fell to the lowest level since January 2019 last month on weaker refining margins.

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Crude Oil

Oil Prices Rebound on OPEC+ Output Delay Talks and U.S. Inventory Drop

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Oil prices made a modest recovery on Thursday on the expectations that OPEC+ may delay planned production increases and the drop in U.S. crude inventories.

Brent crude oil, against which Nigerian oil is priced, rose by 66 cents, or 0.9% to $73.36 per barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude appreciated by 64 cents or 0.9% to $69.84 per barrel.

The rebound in oil prices was a result of the American Petroleum Institute (API) report that revealed that the U.S. crude oil inventories had fallen by a surprising 7.431 million barrels last week, against analysts 1 million barrel decline projection.

The decline signals better than projected demand for the commodity in the United States of America and offers some relief for traders on global demand.

John Evans, an analyst at PVM Oil Associates, attributed the rebound in crude oil prices to the API report.

He said, “There is a pause of breath and light reprieve for oil prices.”

Also, discussions within the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, collectively known as OPEC+, are fueling speculation about a potential delay in planned output increases.

The group was initially expected to increase production by 180,000 a day in October 2024.

However, concerns over softening demand in China and potential developments in Libya’s oil production have prompted the group to reconsider its strategy.

Despite the recent rebound, analysts caution that lingering uncertainties around global oil demand may continue to weigh on prices in the near term.

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Energy

Power Generation Surges to 5,313 MW, But Distribution Issues Persist

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Nigeria’s power generation continues to get better under the leadership of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

According to the latest statement released by Bolaji Tunji, the media aide to the Minister of Power, Adebayo Adelabu, power generation surged to a three-year high of 5,313 megawatts (MW).

“The national grid on Monday hit a record high of 5,313MW, a record high in the last three years,” the statement disclosed.

Reacting to this, the Minister of Power, Adebayo Adelabu, called on power distribution companies to take more energy to prevent grid collapse as the grid’s frequency drops when power is produced and not picked by the Discos.

He added that efforts would be made to encourage industries to purchase bulk energy.

However, a top official of one of the Discos was quoted as saying that the power companies were finding it difficult to pick the extra energy produced by generation companies because they were not happy with the tariff on other bands apart from Band A.

“As it is now, we are operating at a loss. Yes, they supply more power but this problem could be solved with improved tariff for the other bands and more meter penetration to recover the cost,” the Disco official, who pleaded not to be named due to lack of authorisation to speak on the matter, said.

On Saturday, the ministry said power generation that peaked at 5,170MW was ramped down by 1,400MW due to Discos’ energy rejection.

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