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Today’s markets – Powell, Fed, RBA, China Trade Data, Oil, Gold, Bitcoin

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By Craig Erlam, Senior Market Analyst, UK & EMEA, OANDA

It’s shaping up to be another relatively flat day in the markets as investors turn their attention to Capitol Hill ahead of Jerome Powell’s first testimony.

The Fed Chair will appear before the Senate Banking Committee later today to testify on the semi-annual monetary policy report. These events naturally attract a lot of attention but the reality is the Chair’s performance is usually quite polished and uncontroversial, and the occasion itself can drag on and frequently venture away from topic. In other words, we shouldn’t assume we’re about to get fireworks from Powell.

What may make this occasion different is the fact that there’s so much uncertainty around the outlook for interest rates and inflation. While the Fed has maintained that rate hikes must continue, the economic data from January has forced markets to adjust to that reality too so there’s every chance we get a hawkish offensive from Powell.

Considering the likelihood of the January data being a blip rather than a trend, I think it would probably be wiser for Powell to maintain his previous tone as he may risk spooking the markets but if the FOMC truly is weighing up a 50 basis point hike this month, this would be a good opportunity to lay the groundwork for it.

Nearing the end

The RBA appeared to soften its tone once more after hiking rates by another 25 basis points today. The central bank is now of the opinion that inflation has peaked and so multiple rate hikes may no longer be the base case. That said, the RBA will decide meeting by meeting and a lot can change in between. Markets are now pricing in at least one more hike in the cycle and maybe two. The Australian dollar is a little lower on the day as the decision was perceived to be a dovish hike.

Some promising signs

Chinese trade data highlighted some modest improvements but remain quite weak overall. The drop in imports can possibly be attributed to some one-off factors including Covid exit waves and the Lunar New Year and the data will surely improve over the coming months as the economy returns to normal. Exports remained under pressure, although the number was better than expected, indicating still soft global demand which aligns with what we’ve seen recently elsewhere.

Pushing the highs

Oil prices rebounded again on Monday, the second day in a row that they’ve reversed sizeable early losses to end the day in positive territory. They’re now on a good run and traders were clearly not deterred by China’s modest growth target for long. Against that backdrop, it may well be the case that Brent and WTI are about to test the upper end of their trading ranges that they’ve remained within since early December.

A break above $89 would be a very bullish signal for Brent while the same would be true of $83 in WTI. Whether they have the momentum to pull that off may well depend on Powell’s dual testimonies and/or Friday’s jobs data.

Tentatively higher

Gold is edging tentatively higher ahead of Powell’s testimony, during which conditions could become much more volatile. The yellow metal has run into resistance around $1,860 this week which was always likely to be the first test to the upside. Above here, $1,890-$1,900 will be a big test, should it get that far.

Of course, all of this may simply depend on what Powell has to say. A hawkish testimony could wipe out any bullish momentum built up over the last week, at which point attention will shift back to the lows around $1,780-$1,800.

Hanging on in there

Bitcoin has been in consolidation since Friday’s sell-off with traders seemingly fearful of further ripple effects but still willing to hang on for now just in case. It’s been a fantastic year for crypto so far but events late last week were a quick reminder of the challenges facing the industry in the short term and the consequences of that. There’ll also be an eye on Powell’s testimony today as it may influence overall risk appetite in the markets.

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Crude Oil

NNPC and Newcross Set to Boost Awoba Unit Field Production to 12,000 bpd

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NNPC and Newcross Exploration and Production Ltd are working together to increase production at the Awoba Unit Field to 12,000 barrels per day (bpd) within the next 30 days.

This initiative, aimed at optimizing hydrocarbon asset production, follows the recent restart of operations at the Awoba field, which commenced this month after a hiatus.

The field, located in the mangrove swamp south of Port Harcourt, Rivers State, ceased production in 2021 due to logistical challenges and crude oil theft.

The joint venture between NNPC and Newcross is poised to bolster national revenue and meet OPEC production quotas, contributing significantly to Nigeria’s energy sector.

Mele Kyari, NNPC’s Group Chief Executive Officer, attributes this achievement to a conducive operating environment fostered by the administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

The endeavor underscores a collective effort involving stakeholders from various sectors, including staff, operators, host communities, and security agencies, aimed at revitalizing Nigeria’s oil and gas sector.

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Gold

Gold Prices Slide Below $2,300 as Investors Digest Fed’s Rate Outlook

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Amidst a backdrop of global economic shifts and geopolitical recalibration, gold prices dipped below the $2,300 price level.

The decline comes as investors carefully analyse signals from the Federal Reserve regarding its future interest rate policies.

After reaching record highs earlier this month, gold suffered its most daily decline in nearly two years, shedding 2.7% on Monday.

The recent retreat reflects a multifaceted landscape where concerns over escalating tensions in the Middle East have eased, coupled with indications that the Federal Reserve may maintain higher interest rates for a prolonged period.

Richard Grace, a senior currency analyst and international economist at ITC Markets, noted that tactical short-selling likely contributed to the decline, especially given the rapid surge in gold prices witnessed recently.

Despite this setback, bullion remains up approximately 15% since mid-February, supported by ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, central bank purchases, and robust demand from Chinese consumers.

The shift in focus among investors now turns toward forthcoming US economic data, including key inflation metrics favored by the Federal Reserve.

These data points are anticipated to provide further insights into the central bank’s monetary policy trajectory.

Over recent weeks, policymakers have adopted a more hawkish tone in response to consistently strong inflation reports, leading market participants to adjust their expectations regarding the timing of future interest rate adjustments.

As markets recalibrate their expectations for monetary policy, the prospect of a higher-for-longer interest rate environment poses challenges for gold, which traditionally does not offer interest-bearing returns.

Spot gold prices dropped by 1.2% to $2,298.67 an ounce, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index remaining relatively stable. Silver, palladium, and platinum also experienced declines following gold’s retreat.

The ongoing interplay between economic indicators, geopolitical developments, and central bank policies continues to shape the trajectory of precious metal markets.

While gold faces near-term headwinds, its status as a safe-haven asset and store of value ensures that it remains a focal point for investors navigating uncertain global dynamics.

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Crude Oil

Oil Prices Hold Firm Despite Middle East Tensions

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Despite ongoing tensions in the Middle East, oil prices remained resilient, holding steady above key levels on Tuesday.

Brent crude oil traded above $87 a barrel after a slight dip of 0.3% on the previous trading day, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) hovered around $82 a barrel.

The stability in oil prices comes amidst a backdrop of positive sentiment across global markets, with signs of strength in various sectors countering concerns about geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

One of the factors supporting oil prices is the weakening of the US dollar, which makes commodities priced in the currency more attractive to international investors.

Concurrently, equities experienced gains, contributing to the overall positive market sentiment.

However, geopolitical risks persist as Israel intensifies efforts to eliminate what it claims is the last stronghold of Hamas in Gaza and secure the release of remaining hostages.

These actions are expected to keep tensions elevated in the region, adding uncertainty to oil markets.

Despite the geopolitical tensions, options markets have shown a more optimistic outlook in recent days regarding the potential for a spike in oil prices. This suggests that market participants are cautiously optimistic about the resolution of conflicts in the region.

Despite the lingering risks, oil prices have remained below the $90 per barrel price level, a level that many analysts consider significant, particularly as the summer months approach, typically known as the peak demand season for oil.

While prices have experienced some volatility, they have yet to reach the $90 threshold, prompting expectations of further increases later in the year.

Jeff Currie, chief strategy officer of energy pathways at Carlyle Group, expressed confidence in the potential for oil prices to surpass $100 per barrel, citing tight market conditions indicated by timespreads.

However, he also noted the importance of monitoring OPEC’s response to rising prices, as the organization may adjust production levels to stabilize the market.

Overall, while geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to pose risks to oil markets, the resilience of oil prices amidst these challenges underscores the complex interplay of global factors influencing commodity markets.

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