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China’s Foreign Exchange Decrease in May

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China’s foreign exchange reserves decreased by $28 billion in May to its lowest level since late 2011.

The world’s largest currency hoard declined to $3.19 trillion in May, after rising $7.1 billion in April and $10.3 billion in March, data from the People’s Bank of China showed on Tuesday.

Some analysts have attributed the drop to the dollar rally and sporadic official intervention, while other analysts said the drop did not necessarily suggest capital outflows.

“It mostly reflects exchange rate fluctuations which we estimate lowered the dollar value of the portion of the reserves held in other currencies by $25 billion,” said Julian Evans-Pritchard, from Capital Economics.”

Economists surveyed had earlier predicted foreign exchange reserves would fall to $3.20 trillion from $3.22 recorded in April.

“Depreciation expectations faded and the central bank didn’t burn its reserves to intervene in the foreign exchange market,” said Li Wei, a China and Asia economist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney. “The drop was largely due to the valuation effect of a strong dollar, which leads to the depreciation of other currencies.”

However, despite the weakness against the greenback, the central bank hasn’t had to deplete its cash to boost the yuan as stability returns to the yuan.

“The market was pretty calm as the yuan depreciated,” Liu Dongliang, a senior analyst at China Merchants Bank Co. in Shenzhen, said before the data release. “The central bank didn’t interfere in any significant way.”

CEO/Founder Investors King Ltd, a foreign exchange research analyst, contributing author on New York-based Talk Markets and Investing.com, with over a decade experience in the global financial markets.

Forex

Nigeria’s Annual Remittance Inflow Estimated at $24 Billion -CBN

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The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has started focusing on how to better harness Nigeria’s huge diaspora remittances as seen in recent foreign exchange policy geared towards stimulating growth and fast-tracking economic recovery with foreign inflows.

On Thursday, the apex bank said it adjusted forex policy to service the economy with diaspora remittances and curb the excesses of few unscrupulous forex dealers.

In an effort to boost remittance inflows and foster an environment that would enable faster, cheaper, and more convenient flow of remittances back to Nigeria, the Central Bank of Nigeria, on November 30, 2020, announced a new policy initiative, which would help to support these objectives,” Godwin Emefiele stated.

Speaking further, he said, “Given the estimated annual remittance inflow of close to $24bn, which could help in improving our balance of payment position, reduce our dependence on external borrowing and mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on foreign exchange inflows into the country, the CBN sought to find ways to support improved remittance inflows into the country through official channels.

Based on this premise, we analyzed data on IMTO inflows into the country over the past year, and through our investigations discovered that some IMTOs, rather than compete on improving transaction volumes and create more efficient ways for Nigerians in the Diaspora to remit funds, resorted to engaging in arbitrage arrangements on the naira dollar exchange rate, which to a large extent resulted in a significant drop in flows into the country. It also encouraged the use of unsafe unofficial channels, which also supported diversion of remittance flows meant for Nigeria, thereby undermining our Foreign Exchange management framework.

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Forex

CBN Forced Speculators, Hoarders to Sell Dollar Lower

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The Central Bank of Nigeria’s new forex policy has forced many speculators and hoarders at the Nigerian parallel market popularly known as the black market to start bringing out their forex at an even lower price.

The Naira to United States Dollar exchange rate moderated from N500 to N470 earlier this morning across the nation’s black market.

Similarly, the local currency exchanged at N620 to a British Pound, an improvement from N640 it was sold on December 1, 2020.

The story is not different against the European common currency as it gained slightly to N570, up from N580 it sold on Tuesday.

The improvements recorded against global counterparts was after the CBN directed that henceforth recipients of foreign remittance can now receive such fund in foreign currency (US Dollar) in cash or through an ordinary domiciliary account.

This means the apex bank planned to inject $20 billion estimated diaspora remittances per year into the real sector of the economy to force hoarders to sell their dollars or lose substantially and also to curb forex dealers in the habit of buying forex directly from the recipient’s domiciliary account because of old CBN policy that restricted them from withdrawing foreign currency in cash.

With this old policy out of the way, recipients of foreign remittances can now withdraw foreign currency and exchange it at any of the registered bureau de change operators across the nation at N392 to a US dollar. The bureau de change rate set by the central bank.

Investors King expects the policy to fast track the recovery process and enhance economic activity across the board, especially at a time when importers are looking for forex to bring in goods in order to meet the usual December high demand.

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Forex

Naira Exchange Rate Improves as CBN Plans to Flood Economy With $20 Billion Diaspora Remittances

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The Naira to US Dollar exchange rate improved by N10 to N490 on Tuesday following the Central Bank of Nigeria’s new directive that allows recipients of diaspora remittances to receive their fund in foreign currency (US Dollar) or via their ordinary domiciliary account.

The move was after the apex bank blamed the parallel market for the wide foreign exchange rate and cautioned analysts for using speculative rates as the real Naira/US dollar rate.

Therefore, the apex bank decided to inject $20 billion annual diaspora remittances into the real sector of the economy and hurt the activities of unscrupulous individuals at the parallel market.

Investors King expects this to gradually moderate the nation’s foreign exchange rate against global counterparts, deepen business activities and fast track economic recovery.

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