The Australian dollar has gained 158 pips against the US dollar since the Reserve Bank of Australia cut rates by 25 basis points on Tuesday. Even though the central bank delivered what was expected, the Australian dollar climbed higher. Nullifying RBA efforts to curb the local currency gains in order to pressure costs and boost exports.
While some experts and analysts have attributed this to the Fed less hawkish monetary stance and Bank of Japan stimulus disappointment, I think the markets is yet to price in RBA 25 basis points cut and the current surge against the US dollar is as a result of speculations due to increase in demand for the yen as a safe haven asset.
This is because so far this week, the US manufacturing sector remains moderately okay, so is the consumer spending that has contributed the most to the US economy since the global downturn started last year, after China devalued Yuan by 1.9 percent on 11th August, 2015.
Today, US Automatic Data Processing Non-Farm Employment Change shows 179,000 jobs were added in July, beating 171,000 expected and May’s 176,000.
But Australia on the other hand is struggling with weak exports that has pushed its trade balance’s deficit to 3.20 billion from 2.42 billion and building permit approvals below economists forecast of 0.9 percent. All these amid China’s weak outlook, its largest trading partner. Hence, I do not think the Aussie dollar is attractive enough to break 0.7675 resistance level.
If the Non-farm payrolls came out positive on Friday, I expect the AUDUSD pair to break the 0.7505 support level, outside the ascending channel, if sustained it should open up 0.7379 price level as more traders jump on the long awaited downward trend as shown above.
Naira Exchange Rate Improves as CBN Plans to Flood Economy With $20 Billion Diaspora Remittances
The Naira to US Dollar exchange rate improved by N10 to N490 on Tuesday following the Central Bank of Nigeria’s new directive that allows recipients of diaspora remittances to receive their fund in foreign currency (US Dollar) or via their ordinary domiciliary account.
The move was after the apex bank blamed the parallel market for the wide foreign exchange rate and cautioned analysts for using speculative rates as the real Naira/US dollar rate.
Therefore, the apex bank decided to inject $20 billion annual diaspora remittances into the real sector of the economy and hurt the activities of unscrupulous individuals at the parallel market.
Investors King expects this to gradually moderate the nation’s foreign exchange rate against global counterparts, deepen business activities and fast track economic recovery.
CBN Amends Forex Receipt as Naira Hits Record Low
In a bid to simplify and finally liberalize the receipt of diaspora remittances, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has amended its receipt procedures to allow beneficiaries of diaspora remittances receive such inflows in foreign currency (US Dollars).
The apex bank stated in a circular signed by Dr. O.S. Nnaji, Director Trade and Exchange Department, CBN.
In the circular, recipients of remittances can now receive funds in either foreign currency cash (US Dollars) or into their ordinary domiciliary account.
While the International Money Transfer Operators (IMTOs) will henceforth receive diaspora remittances in foreign currency through the designated bank of their choice.
The CBN plans to ease forex scarcity, speed up the recovery process and checkmate the activities of speculators and hoarders at the black by injecting diaspora remittances estimated at about $20 billion per year into the real economy.
This is expected to not just improve business activities but also moderate foreign exchange rate from the current N500/US$ and move the central bank a step closer to unifying the nation’s foreign exchange rates.
The circular partly reads “In an effort to liberalize, simplify and improve the receipt and administration of diaspora remittances into Nigeria, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) wishes to announce as follows;
“Beneficiaries of Diaspora Remittances through International Money Transfer Operators (IMTOs) shall henceforth receive such inflows in foreign currency (US Dollars) or into their ordinary domiciliary account. Such recipients of remittances may have the option of receiving these funds in foreign currency cash (US Dollars) or into their ordinary domiciliary account.”
Naira Devaluation Pushed Exchange Rate to N500/US$ at Black Market
Naira to United States Dollar exchange rate plunged to N500 on Monday after the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) devalued the Naira by N6 on Friday amid growing scarcity.
At the current rate, the local currency has lost N140 per US dollar when compared with N360 it was sold in the same month of 2019 and N5 compared to N495 it exchanged on Friday.
In an effort to ease pressure on the nation’s foreign reserves and unify foreign exchange rates in line with the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank’s requirement for loans, the CBN devalued the official exchange rate by N6 from N379/US$ to N385/US$ and directed bureau de change operators to sell at N392/US$, up from N386/US$.
However, with importers and businesses looking to meet the usual high demand for goods in December pushing demand for the United States dollar off the roof, Naira’s value has continued to plummet despite efforts by the CBN to prop up its value.
Against the British Pound, the Naira declined to N650, down from N620 it exchanged last week. This depreciation continues against the Euro common currency as the local currency declined to N585.
Lack of liquidity due to the weak foreign reserves, low oil prices and weak demand for the commodity amid production cuts by OPEC and allies is hurting CBN’s ability to effectively intervene at the nation’s foreign exchange markets.
The apex bank usually sells forex to dealers to ease scarcity and facilitate trades. However, lack of foreign revenue generation has forced the CBN to reduce its weekly forex sales to $10,000 per bureau de change operator despite reopening of the economy pushing demand for forex further up.
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