- Falling Oil, Foreign Reserves and Nigerian Economy
Since the OPEC and non-OPEC reached an agreement to extend production cut by another 9 months in May. The Brent crude oil has plunged about 18 percent to $44.35 a barrel on Wednesday, a price level described by many oil experts as the bear region.
While Nigeria’s production level is expected to rise by 250,000 barrels per day in coming months, the weak global oil prices pose a challenge to the Nigeria’s foreign revenue and economic recovery.
It is not a co-incidence that the foreign reserves declined by $702 million from $30.9 billion recorded in May to $30.2 billion in June. Even with the projected surge in output level, the nation will have to discount its product to attract buyers as demand is at a record low. Therefore, the foreign reserves may plunge even further, except the Investors and Exporters forex window attract substantial foreign direct investment to offset revenue deficit. Depending on if the Central bank can still sustain its 30 percent contribution to the window.
This, further put the ongoing forex intervention in question. Can the central bank sustain more than $4 billion forex intervention program at a lower oil price of $44-$40 a barrel? A price below the 2017 oil benchmark of $45 a barrel.
Accordingly, the forex intervention helped curtail consumer prices from 19 percent to 16.25 percent in May and boosted forex liquidity. Subsequently, manufacturing activities surged to 52 in May to sustain April expansion, while the foreign exchange rate of the Naira improved to N365 a dollar. It’s lowest in over 6 months.
However, the continuous falls of the oil prices may hurt current progress and delay economic recovery more than anticipated by investors and businesses. This is because as the pace of increase of the foreign reserves wind down forex intervention will gradually reduce and so is the economic activities.
Therefore, the government either up its production level to sell more at a cheaper price or hope OPEC will cut production further as hinted by Iran on Wednesday to sustain the ongoing progress and gradually revamp the economy.
Nigeria to Become Leading Gold Producer in West Africa – Adegbite
Adegbite Says Nigeria to Become Gold Hub in West Africa
The Minister of Mines and Steel Development, Olamilekan Adegbite, has said Nigeria is on its way to becoming a leading gold producer in West Africa.
Adegbite made the statement in Abuja while taking stock of his first year in office as minister.
He said, “Indeed, the international roadshows we have had in the past have produced fruits. Today, we have Thor exploration in Osun State through the Segilola Gold project.
“The exploration firm is projected to start producing (gold) in the first half of next year. The project is expected to create about 400 direct jobs and 1,000 indirect jobs.”
According to Adegbite, the Federal Government has licensed two gold refineries that would refine in line with the London Bullion Market Association standard.
He added, “Numerous industries will spring up when our gold economy becomes full-fledged. Some of them will include equipment leasing and repairs, logistics and transport, as gold requires a specialised means of transport, security, insurance, aggregators, and so on.”
The minister noted that for the first time, the country had mined, processed and refined gold under the Presidential Artisanal Gold Mining Development Initiative for use as part of Nigeria’s external reserves.
Adegbite also stated that the mines ministry had initiated a process that would lead to local capacity development in the production of barite.
“Presently, the barite that is used in the oil and gas industry is imported. But we are resolved to reverse this trend. As you may know, barite is a critical weighting material in drilling fluids due to its high specific gravity,” he said.
NUPENG, Lagos State Agree to Call Off Strike
NUPENG Agrees With Lagos State, Call Off Strike
The Nigeria Union of Petroleum and Gas (NUPENG) has ordered Lagos State Petroleum Tanker Drivers (PTDs) to call off its ongoing strike.
This was disclosed in a joint communique signed by the Lagos Commissioner of Energy and Mineral Resources, Olalere Odusote, and the NUPENG Deputy National President, Solomon Kilanko.
It would be recalled that Investors King had reported that NUPENG directed all PTDs to withdraw their services from Lagos State effective from Monday 10 August 2020 because of the persistent extortions and harassments of PTDs by both uniform security agencies and touts.
However, on the 10th of August, the commencement day of the strike, Lagos State government met with the leadership of NUPENG to address the union concerns and eventually agreed on a way forward.
Part of the communique reads “The Lagos State Government met today with the representatives of NUPENG, which agreed to call off its strike immediately.
“Other decisions taken at the meeting are security – the state government will meet the heads of all security agencies and secure their commitment to ensure the free passage of petroleum products vehicles given their importance to the economy.”
“Area boys’ – the menace of ‘area boys’ will be handled by relevant government agencies and a dedicated phone number will be established, within the next week to ensure the petroleum products transporters have prompt access to security agencies.”
The communique also stated that the Lagos State government will set up a standing committee to communicate with the union on an ongoing basis, saying it will help address a similar issue going forward. See the complete communique below.
Crude Oil Expands Gain on US Stimulus talks, Better Than Expected Chinese Factory Data
Crude Oil Gains on US Stimulus, Better Than Expected Chinese Factory Data
Oil prices extended its gains on Tuesday following a better than expected factory data from China and a possible agreement between Democrats and Republicans on economic stimulus.
“The oil complex is heavily reliant on that aid. We need people to be able to boost economic activity to spur demand,” said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital in New York.
President Trump on Monday said House Speaker, Nancy Pelosi and Senator Chuck Schumer, top Democrat in the chamber of Congress, wanted to meet him to discuss or make a deal on coronavirus-related economic stimulus.
The possibility of a stimulus deal, coupled with a reduction in China’s factory deflation in the month of July due to the surge in oil prices and improved industrial activity bolstered the outlook of the energy sector.
China is the world’s largest importer of crude oil. Therefore, improved factory activity generally boosts the oil market.
Also, the announcement from Iraq that it planned to cut an additional 400,000 barrels per day in August and September to compensate for its previous overproduction above OPEC+ quota aided the oil market this week.
“This would send out a strong signal to the oil market on various levels. That said, this would also require the international companies operating in Iraq to join in with the cuts,” Commerzbank analyst Eugen Weinberg said.
The Brent crude oil, against which Nigerian oil is priced, expanded from $41.30 per barrel it traded on Monday to $45.40 per barrel on Tuesday at 10:10 am Nigerian time.
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