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‘Nigeria Loses $2.5bn Monthly For Failing To Meet 1.8m Barrel Daily Oil Production Allocation’

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The shortfall in the daily crude oil production allocation by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to Nigeria is making the country to lose a whooping sum of $2.5bn monthly, the Nigeria Employers’ Consultative Association (NECA) has said.

Recall that Nigeria’s crude oil production increased by 4.2 per cent to 1.23 million barrels per day in December 2022, but NECA maintained that the production is still short.

Hence, the country has been losing about $2.5bn monthly for failing to meet the 1.8m barrel per day crude oil production allocation by OPEC.

The Director-General of NECA, Adewale-Smatt Oyerinde, in a statement noted that a 0.57 million barrel per day shortfall has been translating to about $2.5bn monthly loss for Nigeria.

Oyerinde revealed that oil theft appeared to worsen and the unsustainable subsidy on petroleum products had joined to reduce the government’s revenue, leading to absurd debt accumulation.

He said that misalignment between the fiscal and monetary policies, which were dwindling investors’ confidence, has made the country unattractive for Foreign Direct Investments.

While expressing the need for the government, especially the incoming one to show the political will to implement policies that will drive the economy back on a growth trajectory, Oyerinde said, “Crude oil production grew in the month of December 2022 by 4.2 per cent month-on-month to 1.23m barrel per day, but remained significantly short of the 1.8m barrel per day allocated by OPEC to the nation, amounting to about $2.5bn loss monthly at an average of $100pb.

“Deliberate efforts must be made to reverse some of the current policies and implement new ones. All leakages associated with government revenue must be blocked (oil theft, skewed concessions, fuel subsidy, etc.). A wholesome review of the tax administration to make it more equitable and investor-friendly should be initiated,” he further submitted.

The NECA boss, however, lamented that while governments in other climes were reducing tax rates in order to enhance economic activities, promote sustainable consumption and attract investors, Nigeria cannot continue to over-tax its businesses and citizens.

According to him, there is a misplacement of priority by the present administration which caused the underdevelopment and deterioration of critical sectors such as education, health and infrastructure in the country.

He said, “With over 50 different taxes, levies and fees and Company Income Tax hovering around 35 per cent, raising taxes in order to increase revenue will be counterproductive. As the nation nears the mark of N77trn in debt with negligible impact on infrastructural development, the incoming government must develop strategies to diversify the revenue base through the revival of the country’s lagging non-oil sectors.

“While there have been projections for a global recession in 2023, the time for a major paradigm shift in our economic philosophy is now. Over the last decade, the country has spent over N10tn on fuel subsidy, about N15.5tn on Capital Expenditure, N2.5tn on Health and about N3.9tn on Education. This is a misplacement of priority and shows that critical developmental items such as education, health and infrastructure have suffered due to crass misplacement of our economic priorities.”

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Crude Oil

Oil Prices Rise on U.S. Inventory Draws Despite Global Demand Worries

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Oil prices gained on Wednesday following the reduction in U.S. crude and fuel inventories.

However, the market remains cautious due to ongoing concerns about weak global demand.

Brent crude oil, against which Nigerian crude oil is priced, increased by 66 cents, or 0.81% to $81.67 a barrel. Similarly, U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 78 cents, or 1.01%, to $77.74 per barrel.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a substantial decline in crude inventories by 3.7 million barrels last week, surpassing analysts’ expectations of a 1.6-million-barrel draw.

Gasoline stocks also fell by 5.6 million barrels, while distillate stockpiles decreased by 2.8 million barrels, contradicting predictions of a 250,000-barrel increase.

Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group, described the EIA report as “very bullish,” indicating a potential for future crude draws as demand appears to outpace supply.

Despite these positive inventory trends, the market is still wary of global demand weaknesses. Concerns stem from a lackluster summer driving season in the U.S., which is expected to result in lower second-quarter earnings for refiners.

Also, economic challenges in China, the world’s largest crude importer, and declining oil deliveries to India, the third-largest importer, contribute to the apprehension about global demand.

Wildfires in Canada have further complicated the supply landscape, forcing some producers to cut back on production.

Imperial Oil, for instance, has reduced non-essential staff at its Kearl oil sands site as a precautionary measure.

While prices snapped a three-session losing streak due to the inventory draws and supply risks, the market remains under pressure.

Factors such as ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas, and China’s economic slowdown, continue to weigh heavily on traders’ minds.

In recent sessions, WTI had fallen 7%, with Brent down nearly 5%, reflecting the volatility and uncertainty gripping the market.

As the industry navigates these complex dynamics, analysts and investors alike are closely monitoring developments that could further impact oil prices.

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Oil Prices Climb as Markets Eye Potential US Rate Cuts in September

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Oil prices rose during the Asian trading session today on speculation that the U.S. Federal Reserve may begin cutting interest rates as soon as September.

Brent crude oil, against which Nigerian oil is priced, increased by 32 cents to $82.95 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil climbed 34 cents to $80.47.

The anticipation of rate cuts stems from recent U.S. inflation and labor market data indicating a trend towards disinflation and balanced employment, according to ANZ Research.

The Federal Reserve is set to review its policy on July 30-31, with expectations of holding rates steady but providing clues for potential cuts in September.

The potential rate cuts could stimulate economic activity, increasing demand for oil. This optimism has been partially offset by recent concerns over China’s slower-than-expected economic growth, which could dampen global oil demand.

President Joe Biden’s announcement to not seek re-election and endorse Vice President Kamala Harris had minimal impact on oil markets.

Analysts suggest that U.S. presidential influence on oil production is limited, although a potential Trump presidency could boost oil demand due to his stance against electric vehicles.

In response to economic challenges, China surprised markets by lowering key policy and lending rates. While these measures aim to bolster the economy, analysts remain cautious about their immediate impact on oil demand.

With OPEC+ production cuts continuing to support prices, the focus remains on the U.S. Federal Reserve’s next moves.

Any decision to cut rates could further influence oil prices in the coming months, highlighting the interconnectedness of global economic policies and energy markets.

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Dangote Refinery Clash Threatens Nigeria’s Oil Sector Stability

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Nigeria’s oil and gas sector is facing a new challenge as a dispute between Dangote Industries Limited and the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Agency (NMDPRA) intensifies.

The disagreement centers on claims by NMDPRA that diesel from the Dangote Refinery contains high sulfur levels, making it inferior to imported products.

The $20 billion Dangote Refinery, located near Lagos, has the potential to process half of Nigeria’s daily oil output, promising to reduce dependency on foreign fuel imports and create thousands of jobs.

However, the recent accusations have cast a shadow over what should be a significant achievement for Africa’s largest economy.

Industry experts warn that the ongoing conflict could deter future investments in Nigeria’s oil sector.

“Regulatory uncertainty is a major disincentive for investors,” said Luqman Agboola, head of energy at Sofidia Capital. “Any factor affecting foreign investment impacts the entire value chain, risking potential energy deals.”

The regulatory body, led by Farouk Ahmed, maintains that Nigeria cannot rely solely on the Dangote facility to meet its petroleum needs, emphasizing the need for diverse sources.

This position has stirred controversy, with critics accusing the agency of attempting to undermine a vital national asset.

Amidst these tensions, energy analyst Charles Ogbeide described the agency’s comments as reckless, noting that the refinery is still in its commissioning stages and is working to optimize its sulfur output.

In response, Dangote Industries has called for fair assessments of its products, asserting that their diesel meets African standards.

The refinery’s leadership argues that certain factions may have ulterior motives, aiming to stifle progress through misinformation.

As the dispute continues, the broader implications for Nigeria’s oil sector remain uncertain. The outcome will likely influence not only domestic production but also the country’s standing in the global energy market.

Observers hope for a resolution that supports both industrial growth and regulatory integrity, ensuring stability in a sector crucial to Nigeria’s economy.

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