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Nigeria’s Average Oil Production Falls by 14.69% in Q2 2023

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The Nigerian Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has released its highly anticipated 2023 second-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report, revealing a significant decline in Nigeria’s oil production.

According to the report, Nigeria’s average daily oil production dropped by 14.69 percent year-on-year (YoY) to 1.22 million barrels per day (mb/d) in the second quarter of 2023. This marks a notable decrease from the 1.43 mb/d recorded during the corresponding period in 2022.

The NBS’s report stated that “The nation, in the second quarter of 2023, recorded an average daily oil production of 1.22 million barrels per day (mbpd), lower than the daily average production of 1.43 mbpd recorded in the same quarter of 2022 by 0.22 mbpd and lower than the first quarter of 2023 production volume of 1.51 mbpd by 0.29 mbpd.”

The oil sector‘s real growth was reported to be -13.43 percent YoY in Q2 2023, indicating a decrease of 1.66 percent points compared to the rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2022 (-11.77 percent).

Also, this represents a sharp decline of 9.22 percent points when compared to the growth rate in Q1 2023, which stood at -4.21 percent.

On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the oil sector recorded a growth rate of -14.12 percent in Q2 2023.

In terms of its contribution to the overall real GDP, the oil sector made up 5.34 percent in Q2 2023. This percentage is down from the figures recorded during the same period in 2022 and the preceding quarter, where it contributed 6.33 percent and 6.21 percent, respectively.

Regarding the mining sector, the report notes that it encompasses Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas, Coal Mining, Metal Ore, Quarrying, and other Minerals sub-activities.

In Q2 2023, this sector experienced a nominal decline of -7.11 percent YoY. Metal Ores exhibited the highest growth rate among the sub-activities at 186.40 percent, followed by quarrying and other minerals activities at 60.83 percent.

However, Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas remained the primary contributors to the sector, accounting for 85.80 percent in Q2 2023. When comparing the growth rate in Q2 2023 to Q2 2022 and Q1 2023, there was a noticeable decline of 56.86 percent points and a fall of 3.59 percent points, respectively.

The Mining & Quarrying sector contributed 6.58 percent to the overall GDP in the second quarter of 2023. This is a decrease compared to the contributions recorded in the second quarter of 2022 at 8.20 percent and the previous quarter at 6.73 percent.

In real terms, the Mining and Quarrying sector contracted by -12.16 percent YoY in the second quarter of 2023.

In comparison to the same quarter of 2022 and the first quarter of 2023, it was lower by 1.07 percent points and lower by 8.20 percent points, respectively. Quarter-on-quarter, the growth rate recorded was -11.11 percent during the quarter.

The contribution of Mining and Quarrying to Real GDP in the quarter under review stood at 5.58 percent, lower than the rate of 6.51 percent recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2022 and lower than the 6.26 percent recorded in the first quarter of 2023.

These statistics underscore the challenges faced by Nigeria’s oil and mining sectors in the second quarter of 2023, raising important economic concerns for the nation.

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Crude Oil

IOCs Stick to Dollar Dominance in Crude Oil Transactions with Modular Refineries

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Crude Oil - Investors King

International Oil Companies (IOCs) are standing firm on their stance regarding the currency denomination for crude oil transactions with modular refineries.

Despite earlier indications suggesting a potential shift towards naira payments, IOCs have asserted their preference for dollar dominance in these transactions.

The decision, communicated during a meeting involving indigenous modular refineries and crude oil producers, shows the complex dynamics shaping Nigeria’s energy landscape.

While the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) had previously hinted at the possibility of allowing indigenous refineries to purchase crude oil in either naira or dollars, IOCs have maintained a firm stance favoring the latter.

Under this framework, modular refineries would be required to pay 80% of the crude oil purchase amount in US dollars, with the remaining 20% to be settled in naira.

This arrangement, although subject to ongoing discussions, signals a significant departure from initial expectations of a more balanced currency allocation.

Representatives from the Crude Oil Refinery Owners Association of Nigeria (CORAN) said the decision was not unilaterally imposed but rather reached through deliberations with relevant stakeholders, including the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).

While there were initial hopes of broader flexibility in currency options, the dominant position of IOCs has steered discussions towards a more dollar-centric model.

Despite reservations expressed by some participants, including modular refinery operators, the consensus appears to lean towards accommodating the preferences of major crude oil suppliers.

The development underscores the intricate negotiations and power dynamics shaping Nigeria’s energy sector, with implications for both domestic and international stakeholders.

As discussions continue, attention remains focused on how this decision will impact the operations and financial viability of modular refineries in Nigeria’s evolving oil landscape.

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Crude Oil

Brent Crude Hits $88.42, WTI Climbs to $83.36 on Dollar Index Dip

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Oil prices surged as Brent crude oil appreciated to $88.42 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed to $83.36 a barrel.

The uptick in prices comes as the U.S. dollar index dipped to its lowest level in over a week, prompting investors to shift their focus from geopolitical tensions to global economic conditions.

The weakening of the U.S. dollar, a key factor influencing oil prices, provided a boost to dollar-denominated commodities like oil. As the dollar index fell, demand for oil from investors holding other currencies increased, leading to the rise in prices.

Investors also found support in euro zone data indicating a robust expansion in business activity, with April witnessing the fastest pace of growth in nearly a year.

Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, noted that the market had been under pressure due to sluggish growth in the euro zone, making any signs of improvement supportive for oil prices.

Market participants are increasingly looking beyond geopolitical tensions and focusing on economic indicators and supply-and-demand dynamics.

Despite initial concerns regarding tensions between Israel and Iran and uncertainties surrounding China’s economic performance, the market sentiment remained optimistic, buoyed by expectations of steady oil demand.

Analysts anticipate the release of key economic data later in the week, including U.S. first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) figures and March’s personal consumption expenditures, which serve as the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge.

These data points are expected to provide further insights into the health of the economy and potentially impact oil prices.

Also, anticipation builds around the release of U.S. crude oil inventory data by the Energy Information Administration, scheduled for Wednesday.

Preliminary reports suggest an increase in crude oil inventories alongside a decrease in refined product stockpiles, reflecting ongoing dynamics in the oil market.

As oil prices continue their upward trajectory, investors remain vigilant, monitoring economic indicators and geopolitical developments for further cues on the future direction of the market.

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Crude Oil

NNPC and Newcross Set to Boost Awoba Unit Field Production to 12,000 bpd

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NNPC and Newcross Exploration and Production Ltd are working together to increase production at the Awoba Unit Field to 12,000 barrels per day (bpd) within the next 30 days.

This initiative, aimed at optimizing hydrocarbon asset production, follows the recent restart of operations at the Awoba field, which commenced this month after a hiatus.

The field, located in the mangrove swamp south of Port Harcourt, Rivers State, ceased production in 2021 due to logistical challenges and crude oil theft.

The joint venture between NNPC and Newcross is poised to bolster national revenue and meet OPEC production quotas, contributing significantly to Nigeria’s energy sector.

Mele Kyari, NNPC’s Group Chief Executive Officer, attributes this achievement to a conducive operating environment fostered by the administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

The endeavor underscores a collective effort involving stakeholders from various sectors, including staff, operators, host communities, and security agencies, aimed at revitalizing Nigeria’s oil and gas sector.

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