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Russia-Ukraine War to Disrupt Nigeria’s N993.38bn Imports From Russia

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NPA

Data compiled by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reveals that the value of Russia’s imports to Nigeria over 12-month is N993.38bn – the 12-month in review is import value between Nigeria and Russia from Q3 2020 and the corresponding period in 2021.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is one that came with global implications and unfortunately Nigeria is not insulated from this disruption given that Russia is one of the country’s largest export partners in recent years.

According to the report by NBS, Nigeria imports four specific items from Russia, the country presently at war with Ukraine. These four items are Durum wheat, herrings, blue whitings, and mackerel.

Nigeria-Russia Breakdown according to the NBS Report

Q3 2020: In Q3, Nigeria imported durum wheat worth N46.56bn, mackerel worth N13.76bn, and blue whitings worth N1.57bn. In that period, Russia was the second leading exporter of durum wheat to Nigeria, the first for mackerel, and the third for blue whitings. Russia became Nigeria’s seventh-largest trading partner in Q3 2020 with the accumulation of N154.21bn about 2.87 percent of Nigeria’s import trade value for the period in review.

Q4 2020: Russia still maintained its position with an import trade value accumulating to N162.62bn which was 2.74 percent of Nigeria’s total import trade value. However, aside from the usual imported items, Nigeria also imported N4.82bn vaccines for human medicine from Russia. In Q4, Nigeria imported durum wheat worth N62.9bn, mackerel worth N2.27bn, and herrings worth N6.59bn. The additional importation of vaccines made Russia Nigeria’s fifth import trade partner for vaccines for human medicine.

Q1 2021: Russia remained Nigeria’s top trade partner for herrings and fourth for wheat as the country imported N15.8bn herrings and N37.20bn durum wheat from Russia.

Q2 2021: Russia was missing from the report for top wheat providers in this quarter. However, Nigeria imported N27.23bn blue whitings and N4.18bn mackerel from Russia in this quarter. Import from Russia in this quarter was N284.36bn cumulatively, which was 4.09 per cent of the total import trade value.

Q3 2021: In this quarter, Russia dropped to the sixth import trading partner for Nigeria with an import trade value of N339.19bn cumulatively, which was 4.16 per cent of the total import trade value. In the quarter, durum wheat worth N86.75bn and mackerel worth N30.69bn were imported from Russia.

Projections with import disruption

As the crisis between both countries persists, Nigeria is at a risk from not only Russia but also Ukraine as Nigeria also has trade relationships with Ukraine. In 2020, Nigeria spent $156.08m on imports from Ukraine, data by the United Nations Comtrade Database on International trade reveals. The database also indicated that import from Russia was $1.24bn in 2020.

While the war continues and heats up with trade sanctions imposed on Russia by global trade communities, Nigeria may need to look beyond Russia for products like cereals, mineral fuel, oil distillation products, fish, iron and steel, fertilizers, amongst others.

Some economic experts have also expressed that Nigeria may experience more elevated inflation in the coming weeks as the war persists.

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Economy

Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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Gas-Pipeline

The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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Economy

IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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Economy

South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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