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Russia-Ukraine Conflict, an Economic Perspective

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Crude oil - Investors King

By Coronation Merchant Bank Economic Research Team

The ongoing disruptions in Europe following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has potential economic implications. The Russia-Ukraine crisis has been brewing for eight years since Russia occupied Crimea, a region along the Southern Russia –Ukraine border. Russia and Ukraine are regarded as emerging European economies.

In the latest regional economic outlook published by the IMF, GDP growth for Russia is estimated at 2.8% y/y this year and 2.1% y/y in 2023. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s GDP growth is projected at 3.6% y/y in 2022 and 3.4% y/y in 2023. On a broader level, the emerging market and developing economies group, where Russia and Ukraine fall under, is expected to grow by 4.8% y/y in 2022.

Given the ongoing crisis, a downward revision may be on the horizon due to the obvious economic challenges Ukraine and Russia will experience.

Over the past weeks, speculations around the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict placed upward pressure on oil prices. Oil prices surged above USD100 per barrel to hit their highest level since 2014 after Russia launched an invasion of Ukraine. Since July ’21, OPEC+ has struggled to meet its production quota.

It is worth highlighting that Russia is the world’s largest natural gas exporter, it supplies about c.38% of natural gas to countries within the Eurozone. The ongoing conflict has an impact on gas prices. Steady upticks in gas prices could be recorded on the back of potential retaliation actions from Russia as a reaction to sanctions.

Supply-chain disruptions could heighten. Regarding shipping, commercial vessels have been advised to avoid any transit or operation within the exclusive economic zone (EEZ) of Ukraine or Russia within the Black Sea. Furthermore, the airspace over the whole of Ukraine has been declared closed and air traffic has been suspended.

The rise in oil and natural gas prices as well as the potential worsening of global supply chain constraints would contribute to inflationary pressure and weaken purchasing power, particularly in the Eurozone area and the United States. To tame rising inflation in select advanced economies, central banks have been postured to kick-off policy rate hikes this year. At this point, we do not expect a reversal in this stance. However, we continue to monitor global trends closely.

Russia and Ukraine are major exporters of agricultural commodities, particularly grains. Based on data from FAO, both countries accounted for about c.30%, c.80% and c.14% of global wheat, sunflower seeds, and maize exports respectively in 2020.

Meanwhile, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Nigeria imported N144bn (USD346.2m) worth of durum wheat in 2020 and N123.9bn (USD297.8m) worth of durum wheat between January – September ’21 from Russia. Nigeria also imports different types of seafood such as mackerel, herrings, and blue whiting from Russia.

Furthermore, the NBS data show that Nigeria imported milk worth N721.5m (USD1.7m) from Ukraine in 2021. Regarding capital importation, since 2019, Nigeria has received a total of USD84.3m in capital imports from Russia.

On a separate note, the price of gold, which is considered a haven asset in times of uncertainty has increased. Gold was USD32/oz firmer at USD1,808/oz, on 25 February compared with USD1,776/oz recorded in the corresponding period of 2021.

From a fiscal perspective, higher oil prices bodes well for Nigeria. However, the presence of the fuel subsidy regime undermines expected benefits. The ongoing conflict also has a potential negative impact on the country’s imported food inflation rate, potential (but minimal) disruptions to trade activity and capital importation.

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Economy

Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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Gas-Pipeline

The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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