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Russia-Ukraine Conflict, an Economic Perspective

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By Coronation Merchant Bank Economic Research Team

The ongoing disruptions in Europe following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has potential economic implications. The Russia-Ukraine crisis has been brewing for eight years since Russia occupied Crimea, a region along the Southern Russia –Ukraine border. Russia and Ukraine are regarded as emerging European economies.

In the latest regional economic outlook published by the IMF, GDP growth for Russia is estimated at 2.8% y/y this year and 2.1% y/y in 2023. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s GDP growth is projected at 3.6% y/y in 2022 and 3.4% y/y in 2023. On a broader level, the emerging market and developing economies group, where Russia and Ukraine fall under, is expected to grow by 4.8% y/y in 2022.

Given the ongoing crisis, a downward revision may be on the horizon due to the obvious economic challenges Ukraine and Russia will experience.

Over the past weeks, speculations around the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict placed upward pressure on oil prices. Oil prices surged above USD100 per barrel to hit their highest level since 2014 after Russia launched an invasion of Ukraine. Since July ’21, OPEC+ has struggled to meet its production quota.

It is worth highlighting that Russia is the world’s largest natural gas exporter, it supplies about c.38% of natural gas to countries within the Eurozone. The ongoing conflict has an impact on gas prices. Steady upticks in gas prices could be recorded on the back of potential retaliation actions from Russia as a reaction to sanctions.

Supply-chain disruptions could heighten. Regarding shipping, commercial vessels have been advised to avoid any transit or operation within the exclusive economic zone (EEZ) of Ukraine or Russia within the Black Sea. Furthermore, the airspace over the whole of Ukraine has been declared closed and air traffic has been suspended.

The rise in oil and natural gas prices as well as the potential worsening of global supply chain constraints would contribute to inflationary pressure and weaken purchasing power, particularly in the Eurozone area and the United States. To tame rising inflation in select advanced economies, central banks have been postured to kick-off policy rate hikes this year. At this point, we do not expect a reversal in this stance. However, we continue to monitor global trends closely.

Russia and Ukraine are major exporters of agricultural commodities, particularly grains. Based on data from FAO, both countries accounted for about c.30%, c.80% and c.14% of global wheat, sunflower seeds, and maize exports respectively in 2020.

Meanwhile, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Nigeria imported N144bn (USD346.2m) worth of durum wheat in 2020 and N123.9bn (USD297.8m) worth of durum wheat between January – September ’21 from Russia. Nigeria also imports different types of seafood such as mackerel, herrings, and blue whiting from Russia.

Furthermore, the NBS data show that Nigeria imported milk worth N721.5m (USD1.7m) from Ukraine in 2021. Regarding capital importation, since 2019, Nigeria has received a total of USD84.3m in capital imports from Russia.

On a separate note, the price of gold, which is considered a haven asset in times of uncertainty has increased. Gold was USD32/oz firmer at USD1,808/oz, on 25 February compared with USD1,776/oz recorded in the corresponding period of 2021.

From a fiscal perspective, higher oil prices bodes well for Nigeria. However, the presence of the fuel subsidy regime undermines expected benefits. The ongoing conflict also has a potential negative impact on the country’s imported food inflation rate, potential (but minimal) disruptions to trade activity and capital importation.

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Economy

Nigerians Can Now Check Food Prices Live on Mobile App, Says BOI

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The Bank of Industry (BOI) has launched a mobile app for Nigerians to check live food prices in the country.

The web version, Pricesense.ng helps users check the wholesale and retail prices of food items such as rice, beans, tomato, maize and others in different states across the country.

According to BOI, the states available for checking of the prices are Borno, Plateau, Rivers, Oyo, FCT, Lagos, Enugu and Kano.

It noted that the app provides for analytics of food prices across brand type, quantity and at different dates of the year.

One of the challenges currently assailing Nigerians is food.

However, prices of food vary from state to state. Hence, the decision of BOI to come up with the app so that Nigerians would be abreast of the current prices of food in states and take necessary steps that would better suit their conditions.

Aside from food insecurity, food prices have been on the rise since the inception of President Bola Tinubu’s administration.

As at June 2024, food inflation crossed 40 percent while many poor Nigerians languish in acute hunger.

There are many factors responsible for the food shortage and inflation of prices.

Some of them are lack of fertile policies by the Federal and State Governments, disruption in regular weather patterns, insecurity in food-producing regions and high cost of farm inputs such as fertilisers among others.

The Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission (FCCPC) had accused traders of price gouging leading to the high cost of staple foods in the country.

The FCCPC boss, Mr. Tunji Bello, stated that some traders forming cartels in markets across the country are responsible for the sharp rise in food prices.

While the commission acknowledged that factors like the exchange rate and the increase in petrol prices have made previous prices unsustainable, it criticized the disproportionate price hikes, which Mr. Bello attributed to cartels seeking to exploit consumers.

The commission this year had closed some supermarkets it accused of unethical market practices with respect to prices of goods. Furthermore, the commission had earlier ordered traders across the country to crash prices of goods and services within one month or face its actions.

Also, some notable traditional rulers in the country, especially in the South West, had accused some leaders of traders of forcing others to sell at fixed prices.

These monarchs including the Ooni of Ife, Oba Enitan Ogunwusi and late Owa Obokun of Ijesaland, Oba Gabriel Adekunle Aromolaran had banned market union associations in their domains from fixing prices of food items for traders and neither should they force them from joining associations.

However, some international development organisations like the World Bank, International Rescue Committee (IRC) and the Food and Agricultural Organisation (FA0) had predicted record number of food insecure people in the country for 2024.

In particular, the World Bank noted that around seven states in the country would witness severe hunger while the FAO noted that up to 32 million Nigerians in 2024 would be food insecure with women and children mostly affected.

Efforts by the federal government to quell the crisis include the approval of duty-free food imports for 150 days and distribution of grains to all 36 states of the federation.

Furthermore, the federal government has also begun the sale of rice at a discount price of N40,000 per 50kg bag.

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High Cost of Living: FG Removes VAT on Diesel, Cooking Gas

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The Federal Government said it has removed Value Added Tax (VAT) on diesel and cooking gas, among others as part of measures to cushion the harsh economic realities in the country.

Unveiling two major fiscal incentives, Nigeria’s Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun, said VAT was modified to reduce the hardship citizens battle.

Edun, in a statement by the Director, Information and Public Relations at the Ministry of Finance, Mohammed Manga, said the incentives are aimed at transforming Nigeria’s oil and gas sector.

He identified the incentives as value-added tax (VAT) modification order 2024 and notice of tax incentives for deep offshore oil and gas production, in accordance with the Oil and Gas Companies (tax incentives, exemption, remission, etc.) Order 2024.

Explaining the incentives further, the Minister stated that the VAT Modification Order 2024 introduces exemptions on a range of key energy products and infrastructure, including Diesel, Feed Gas, Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG), Compressed Natural Gas (CNG), Electric Vehicles, Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) infrastructure, and Clean Cooking Equipment.

According to him, the measures are designed to lower the cost of living, reinforce energy security, and boost the nation’s transition to cleaner energy sources.

In addition, he said the Notice of Tax Incentives for Deep Offshore Oil & Gas Production provides new tax reliefs for deep offshore projects, adding that the initiative is aimed at positioning Nigeria’s deep offshore basin as a premier destination for global oil and gas investments.

The minister maintained that the reforms are part of a broader series of investment-driven policy initiatives championed by President Tinubu, in line with Policy Directives 40-42.

He said the policies are pointers to the Federal Government’s strong commitment to fostering sustainable growth in the energy sector and enhancing Nigeria’s global competitiveness in oil and gas production.

Edun assured that the initiatives would ensure Nigeria’s firm track to reclaim its position as a leader in the global oil and gas market.

According to him, these fiscal incentives demonstrate President Tinubu’s unwavering commitment to fostering sustainable growth, enhancing energy security, and driving economic prosperity for all Nigerians.

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Farmers Warn of Looming Food Crisis in Nigeria, Urge Government Action

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Food Security - Investors King

The All Farmers Association of Nigeria (AFAN) has identified flooding, insecurity, low mechanization, and difficulty in accessing credit as some of the factors responsible for the country’s food shortage.

The farmers warned that Nigeria could face severe food shortages if the government fails to address these challenges.

This was disclosed in a statement by the National President of AFAN, Kabir Ibrahim, on Monday.

Ibrahim called on the Federal Government to intervene urgently to prevent the country from slipping into a worse situation.

He revealed that measures such as food importation, support for smallholder farmers, and the distribution of palliatives and agricultural inputs should be implemented.

He urged the government to adopt seamless agribusiness practices, particularly through the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).

Ibrahim also encouraged the government to offer incentives and affordable credit to small and large-scale agribusiness farmers, noting that this would boost food production and distribution.

However, Ibrahim pointed out that palliatives and mass importation are only temporary measures.

He urged the government to consider long-term solutions, especially sustainable agribusiness practices that support smallholder farmers.

He said, “Various efforts such as the importation of some food items for a given period in defined quantities, support to smallholder farmers or small-scale producers, and distribution of palliatives and agricultural inputs are works in progress.

“These should be implemented transparently and dispassionately for them to impact the food system by immediately bringing down prices.

“The most probable respite can come by encouraging seamless agribusiness practices through AfCFTA and other available windows.

“The engine room of food production in Nigeria still revolves around the smallholder farmers, who should be encouraged to scale up by enabling them to get real value for their produce, among a myriad of other incentives.”

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