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Power, Still in Need of a Leg-up – Coronation Merchant Bank

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Power shortages remain a prominent infrastructure gap in Nigeria. For businesses located in Nigeria, self-generation places pressure on operating expenses. Household wallets are also significantly affected by the same expense. The availability of power is a catalyst to boosting levels of industrial activity for economic development. The FGN estimates national energy demand at c.28,000 megawatts (MW).

Therefore, improving power sector performance, particularly in manufacturing and services will be central to unlocking economic growth post COVID-19. Several African countries suffer from insufficient electricity generation capacity as well as inadequate and poorly maintained transmission and distribution networks that significantly affect their socio-economic activities. Based on data from the International Energy Agency (IEA), in 2019, 81% of the African population had access to electricity in urban areas while only 37% had access to electricity in rural areas.

Turning to the Nigerian electricity landscape, according to the latest Tracking SDG7 report, about 89 million Nigerians (45% of the population) have no access to electricity. The World Bank estimates that Nigeria suffers an annual economic loss due to unreliable power supply at between 5-7% of the country’s GDP.

There is uncertainty around the exact number of back-up generators in the country. Some studies have estimated that Nigeria could have as much as 15,000MW installed capacity of power generators. Other studies have put the installed generator capacity in Lagos alone at around 16,000 MW. These generators range from small 0.5 KVA for a small kiosk to large 75 KVA / 60 kW generators servicing residential estates and industries across the country.

The Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN) disclosed that the power sector recorded national peak generation of 3,844.3MW on 01 November ‘21, compared with 5,802MW recorded in 01 March ’21.

Metering remains a challenge. To attempt to solve this issue, the FGN plans to provide up to 4 million meters to Nigerians in the second phase of its National Mass Metering Programme (NMMP). The first phase of the initiative has led to the distribution of about 750,000 meters nationwide within eight months. This is an improvement with regards to installation speed given that the preceding Meter Asset Provider (MAP) programme recorded 350,000-meter installations in over 18 months.

According to the Nigerian Bulk Electricity Trading Company (NBET), the electricity distribution companies (DISCOs) remitted revenues totalling N91.3bn to the NBET in Q2’21. This is a 22.6% decline from the N111.8bn recorded in the previous quarter. The decline in revenues from the 11 DISCOs can be partly attributed to poor power supply in Q2 ‘21. The decline in revenue can also be attributed to the high technical and commercial losses that have been exacerbated by energy theft as well as consumers’ apathy to payments under the prevailing practice of estimated billing.

A better energy mix of non-renewable and green energy will accelerate the process of attaining access to power for all. The FGN targets 30% of national energy to come from renewables by 2030. In April 2021, the FGN began implementing its plan to deliver electricity through solar energy to about 25 million Nigerians whose communities are off the national power grid through the Solar Power Naija programme. The initiative aims to create five million connections through a N140bn financing programme.

Furthermore, the European Union granted an additional EUR15m (USD17.4m) to fund the second phase of Nigeria’s renewable energy and energy efficiency sector under the Nigerian Energy Support Programme (NESP). Additionally, the Agence française de développement (AFD) recently invested c.USD70m to fund renewable energy and efficient energy projects in the country to bridge the nation’s power needs and reduce environmental pollution. The AFD fund could guarantee electricity supply to c.80 million Nigerians affected by power shortages.

The lack of reliable power supply has stifled economic activity, private investments, and job creation. An industrial take-off, which will be supported by improved power supply, is required if Nigeria is to achieve sustainable double-digit GDP growth. Forward steps should also be taken to modernise power infrastructure (with particular emphasis on transmission), reduce the Aggregate, Technical, Commercial and Collection (ATC&C) losses, as well as increase transparency and contract enforceability through enhanced regulatory oversight.

Increased investments targeted towards boosting renewable energy generation would also assist with increasing productivity in sectors like agriculture and manufacturing.

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Economy

Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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Gas-Pipeline

The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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