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Visible Decline in Total Value of Merchandise Trade – Coronation Economic Note

This decline can be partly attributed to the slowdown in economic activities in Q1 ‘23 due to the cash crunch associated with the Naira redesign policy.

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Shipowners

The latest report from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in its series on foreign trade, shows that the total value of trade declined by -17.8% y/y to N12trn in Q1 ’23 compared with N14.6trn recorded in Q4 ’22.

This decline can be partly attributed to the slowdown in economic activities in Q1 ‘23 due to the cash crunch associated with the Naira redesign policy.

Meanwhile, on a q/q basis, it grew by +2.5%. The net result was a surplus of N927.2bn. The total export value increased marginally by 1.6% q/q to N6.5trn compared with N6.4trn in Q4 ’22 while the import value increased by 3.8% q/q to N5.6trn from N5.4trn recorded in Q4 ’22. The total trade as a percentage of nominal GDP (2022) stood at 6.0% in Q1 ’23, compared with 5.9% recorded in Q4 ’22.

According to the NBS, most imports in Q1 ’23 originated from China (N1.3trn). This is followed by the Netherlands (N575.2bn), Belgium (N518.1bn), India (N427.4bn), and the United States (N283.9bn). These countries collectively accounted for 55.8% of the total imports in Q1 ’23. Imports from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) stood at N42.3bn in Q1 ’23, accounting for 23.7% of total imports within the region.

The value of imported oil-related products and agricultural goods increased by 11.5% q/q and 5.9% q/q respectively. Meanwhile the value of imported manufactured products declined by -4.2% q/q.

Regarding export destinations, the top five were Netherlands (N837.6bn), United States (N579.4bn), Spain (N488.2bn), France (N487.3bn) and Indonesia (N456.7bn) was the top exporting partner for Nigeria in Q1 ’23. These countries collectively accounted for 43.9% of total exports in Q1 ’23.

Crude oil accounted for the largest share (79.4%) of total exports in Q1 ’23. On a q/q basis, it grew by 4.1% to N5.1trn vs N4.9trn recorded in the previous quarter. The q/q increase in the value of total crude exported can be partly attributed to improved oil production.

According to the NBS, average crude oil production (condensates inclusive) in Q1 ’23 was recorded at 1.5mbpd vs 1.49mbpd in the previous quarter. We understand that OPEC+ has revised Nigeria’s oil production quota to 1.38mbpd (expected to take effect from January’24) from 1.7mbpd. The FGN’s production benchmark is still pegged at 1.68mbpd.

As for non-oil exports, superior quality cocoa beans, sesamum seeds, cashew nuts in shell, soya beans, other frozen shrimps and prawns, cocoa butter, and sorghum seed featured as the top export commodities in Q1 ’23. Nigeria exported goods worth N399.2bn to fellow members of the ECOWAS in Q1 ’23, compared with N553.8bn in Q4 ‘22. This represented 59.9% of total exports within Africa.

Apapa Port remained the most active port during the period and accounted for 93.6% of total exports. Goods worth N6.1trn exited the country through this port. Other ports widely used within the period include Tincan Island (N199bn), and Port Harcourt (N150bn).

Looking ahead, the importation of refined fuel products is expected to decline with the commencement of operations in the Dangote refinery.

This could lead to additional fx savings from distribution costs (i.e. freight rate, jetty throughput charges, NPA charges, etc.).

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Economy

August 2023 Witnesses Highest Revenue Allocation of the Year – N1.1 Trillion Shared

The driving force behind this boost in revenue can be attributed to foreign exchange gains that have contributed significantly to the government’s income stream.

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Revenue - Investors King

The Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) unveiled its allocation of N1.1 trillion to the three tiers of government for the month of August 2023, Investors King reports.

This substantial increase was detailed in a communiqué following the committee’s latest meeting. August allocation was the highest so far with an increase of N133.99 billion when compared to the N966.11 billion shared in July 2023.

The driving force behind this boost in revenue can be attributed to foreign exchange gains that have contributed significantly to the government’s income stream.

Breaking down the N1.1 trillion total distributable revenue, the statement reveals that it consists of distributable statutory revenue amounting to N357.4 billion, distributable Value Added Tax revenue totaling N321.94 billion, Electronic Money Transfer Levy revenue at N14.10 billion, Exchange Difference revenue of N229.57 billion, and an augmentation of NN177.09 billion.

Of this impressive sum, the Federal Government is set to receive N431.25 billion, while the State governments will be allocated N361.19 billion, and the local government Councils will obtain N266.54 billion.

However, it’s essential to note that the total revenue available for August stood at N1.48 trillion, marking a 14% or 0.26 trillion decrease from the preceding month’s figure of N1.74 trillion.

The FAAC communiqué further underscores that various deductions were made, including N58.76 billion for the cost of collection, N254.05 billion for total transfers and refunds, and N71 billion allocated to savings. Additionally, the Excess Crude Account maintained a balance of $473,754.57.

The statement elaborated, “Gross statutory revenue of N891.934 billion was received for the month of August 2023. This was lower than the N1,150.424 billion received in July 2023 by N258.490 billion. The gross revenue available from the Value Added Tax was N345.727 billion. This was higher than the N298.789 billion available in July 2023 by N46.938 billion.”

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Zambia’s Finance Minister Faces Dual Challenge in Upcoming Budget Address

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Zambian economy

As Zambia’s Finance Minister, Situmbeko Musokotwane, prepares to present the nation’s budget, he finds himself at a pivotal crossroads.

The second-largest copper producer in Africa is grappling with two pressing concerns: debt sustainability and soaring living costs.

Debt Restructuring Dilemma: Musokotwane’s foremost challenge is finalizing the $6.3 billion debt-restructuring deal with official creditors, led by China and France.

Delays have hindered disbursements from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and left private creditors in limbo.

To reassure investors, a memorandum of understanding with the official creditor committee is urgently needed.

President Hakainde Hichilema emphasizes the importance of sealing these transactions to signal closure on this tumultuous chapter.

Plummeting Tax Revenue: The key copper-mining industry, which accounts for 70% of Zambia’s export earnings, is in turmoil.

First-half mining company taxes and mineral royalty collections have nosedived, adding to economic woes.

This, in turn, has depreciated the local currency, exacerbating imported inflation, particularly in fuel prices.

Rising Food Inflation: Musokotwane faces mounting political pressure to combat soaring living costs, with annual inflation reaching an 18-month high of 12%. Corn meal prices, a staple in Zambia, have surged by a staggering 67% in the past year.

Neighboring countries’ demand for corn has led to smuggling and further price spikes, raising concerns about food security.

Currency Woes: The kwacha’s value has been a barometer for the nation’s economic health. It depreciated by 16% since June 22, the worst performance among African currencies, reflecting the ongoing debt-restructuring uncertainty.

In his budget address, Musokotwane faces the daunting task of striking a balance between debt management, economic stability, and alleviating the burden on Zambia’s citizens.

The international community will keenly watch to see if his fiscal measures can steer the nation toward a path of recovery and prosperity.

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IMF Urges Sub-Saharan African Nations to Eliminate Tax Exemptions for Fiscal Health

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IMF global - Investors King

Sub-Saharan African countries have been advised by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to tackle their fiscal deficits by focusing on eliminating tax exemptions and bolstering domestic revenue rather than resorting to fiscal expenditure cuts, which could hamper economic growth.

The IMF conveyed this recommendation in a paper titled ‘How to avoid a debt crisis in Sub-Saharan Africa.’

The IMF’s paper emphasizes that Sub-Saharan African nations should reconsider their overreliance on expenditure cuts as a primary means of reducing fiscal deficits. Instead, they should place greater emphasis on revenue-generating measures such as eliminating tax exemptions and modernizing tax filing and payment systems.

According to the IMF, mobilizing domestic revenue is a more growth-friendly approach, particularly in countries with low initial tax levels.

The paper highlights success stories in The Gambia, Rwanda, Senegal, and Uganda, where substantial revenue increases were achieved through a combination of revenue administration and tax policy reforms.

The IMF also pointed out that enhancing the participation of women in the labor force could significantly boost Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in developing countries.

The IMF estimates that raising the rate of female labor force participation by 5.9 percentage points, which aligns with the average reduction in the participation gap observed in the top 5% of countries during 2014-19, could potentially increase GDP by approximately 8% in emerging and developing economies.

In a world grappling with the weakest medium-term growth outlook in over three decades, bridging the gender gap in labor force participation emerges as a vital reform that policymakers can implement to stimulate economic revival.

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