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Visible Decline in Total Value of Merchandise Trade – Coronation Economic Note

This decline can be partly attributed to the slowdown in economic activities in Q1 ‘23 due to the cash crunch associated with the Naira redesign policy.

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The latest report from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in its series on foreign trade, shows that the total value of trade declined by -17.8% y/y to N12trn in Q1 ’23 compared with N14.6trn recorded in Q4 ’22.

This decline can be partly attributed to the slowdown in economic activities in Q1 ‘23 due to the cash crunch associated with the Naira redesign policy.

Meanwhile, on a q/q basis, it grew by +2.5%. The net result was a surplus of N927.2bn. The total export value increased marginally by 1.6% q/q to N6.5trn compared with N6.4trn in Q4 ’22 while the import value increased by 3.8% q/q to N5.6trn from N5.4trn recorded in Q4 ’22. The total trade as a percentage of nominal GDP (2022) stood at 6.0% in Q1 ’23, compared with 5.9% recorded in Q4 ’22.

According to the NBS, most imports in Q1 ’23 originated from China (N1.3trn). This is followed by the Netherlands (N575.2bn), Belgium (N518.1bn), India (N427.4bn), and the United States (N283.9bn). These countries collectively accounted for 55.8% of the total imports in Q1 ’23. Imports from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) stood at N42.3bn in Q1 ’23, accounting for 23.7% of total imports within the region.

The value of imported oil-related products and agricultural goods increased by 11.5% q/q and 5.9% q/q respectively. Meanwhile the value of imported manufactured products declined by -4.2% q/q.

Regarding export destinations, the top five were Netherlands (N837.6bn), United States (N579.4bn), Spain (N488.2bn), France (N487.3bn) and Indonesia (N456.7bn) was the top exporting partner for Nigeria in Q1 ’23. These countries collectively accounted for 43.9% of total exports in Q1 ’23.

Crude oil accounted for the largest share (79.4%) of total exports in Q1 ’23. On a q/q basis, it grew by 4.1% to N5.1trn vs N4.9trn recorded in the previous quarter. The q/q increase in the value of total crude exported can be partly attributed to improved oil production.

According to the NBS, average crude oil production (condensates inclusive) in Q1 ’23 was recorded at 1.5mbpd vs 1.49mbpd in the previous quarter. We understand that OPEC+ has revised Nigeria’s oil production quota to 1.38mbpd (expected to take effect from January’24) from 1.7mbpd. The FGN’s production benchmark is still pegged at 1.68mbpd.

As for non-oil exports, superior quality cocoa beans, sesamum seeds, cashew nuts in shell, soya beans, other frozen shrimps and prawns, cocoa butter, and sorghum seed featured as the top export commodities in Q1 ’23. Nigeria exported goods worth N399.2bn to fellow members of the ECOWAS in Q1 ’23, compared with N553.8bn in Q4 ‘22. This represented 59.9% of total exports within Africa.

Apapa Port remained the most active port during the period and accounted for 93.6% of total exports. Goods worth N6.1trn exited the country through this port. Other ports widely used within the period include Tincan Island (N199bn), and Port Harcourt (N150bn).

Looking ahead, the importation of refined fuel products is expected to decline with the commencement of operations in the Dangote refinery.

This could lead to additional fx savings from distribution costs (i.e. freight rate, jetty throughput charges, NPA charges, etc.).

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Economy

Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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Gas-Pipeline

The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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Economy

IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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Economy

South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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