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Renewed Hope: the 2024 FGN Budget – Coronation Economic Note

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The 2024 FGN Budget, titled “Budget of Renewed Hope,” was signed by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu on 02 January’24. There were a few revisions made.

The aggregate expenditure is estimated at N28.7trn which is 11.9% or N1.2trn higher than the initially proposed N27.5trn. This figure is 15.9% higher than the 2023 FGN budget of N24.82trn.

Notably, the allocation to capital expenditure in the approved 2024 budget rose by 13.8% to N9.9trn, accounting for 34.5% of the total expenditure, compared to the initial proposed figure of N8.7trn. The increased capital spending aligns with the FGN’s intent to reduce the country’s infrastructure deficit gap. We note that the 2024 budget estimates point towards a fiscal deficit of N9.1trn (approximately 3.88% of the 2024 estimated nominal GDP), which is considerably lower than N13.8trn estimated in the 2023 FGN budget.

The projected fiscal expenditure also includes an increase in statutory transfer to N1.7trn from the initial N1.3trn in the proposed budget However, non-debt recurrent expenditure declined by – 15.5% to N8.7trn from the initially proposed N10.2trn. However, the debt service estimate remained unchanged at N8.2trn.

Furthermore, there was a slight modification in the assumptions underlying the budget. The exchange rate was revised upward to N800/USD from N750/USD. However, other assumptions remained unchanged (oil price benchmark of USD77.9/b, oil production of 1.78mbpd, inflation rate of 21.4%, and GDP growth rate of 3.76% y/y).

There were notable budgetary reallocations, for example, the National Judicial Council received a substantial increase by +107% from N165bn to N341.6bn. Similarly, the allocation to the National Assembly increased by 74.23% to N344.8bn from N197.9bn.

This marks the highest allocation to the National Assembly. Other budgetary reallocations include Niger-Delta Development Commission: N338.9bn (previously N324.8bn), Universal Basic Education Commission: N263billion (previously N251.4bn), Public Complaints Commission: N14.4bn (previously N13.6bn), Northeast Development Commission: N131.8bn (previously N126.9bn), Basic Healthcare Provision Fund: N131.5bn (previously N125.7bn) National Agency for Science and Engineering
Infrastructure: N131.5bn (previously N125.7bn).

The estimated revenue to fund the 2024 budget was revised upward to N19.6trn, 78.2% higher than the 2023 provision of N11trn. The breakdown of this revenue estimate shows that N9.2trn
(46.9%) is expected from oil-related sources while the balance of N10.4trn (53.1%) is expected
from non-oil sources.

Overall, the revenue projections point towards expectations of improved revenue inflow, on the back of the removal of PMS subsidy, fx depreciation following the fx liberalization policy, and increased collection of non-oil taxes.

In our view, achieving the proposed revenue target in 2024 would require deliberate efforts towards tackling the challenges in the oil sector. Average oil production from January – November ‘23 was 1.46mbpd. This is below the FGN 2023 oil production target of 1.72mbpd. In 2024, we expect oil production to range between 1.4 -1.6mbpd, still below the FGN’s 2024 oil production target of 1.78mbpd.

On the other hand, it is worth highlighting that actual non-oil revenue has exceeded FGN’s target by an average of 9.4% since FY2021. Additionally, as at end-September ’23, we note an overperformance of non-oil revenue (N2.5trn exceeding the prorated target of N1.8trn). We expect the FGN to increase its tax mobilization initiatives and further enhance independent revenue generation and collection efforts, especially from government-owned enterprises (GOEs). The proposed fiscal deficit of N9.1trn is expected to be financed by new borrowings totaling c.N7.8trn (domestic: c.N6.0trn, external: c.N1.7trn). Other sources of deficit financing include privatization proceeds of c.N298.4bn and drawdowns on bilateral/multilateral projects/programs of c.N941.1bn.

Regarding ways and means advances from the CBN, we note the senate’s approval to securitize c.N7.3trn of the ways and means advances to a 40-year bond at 5% interest. In early 2023, N23trn was securitized to a 40-year bond at 9% interest. This brings the total amount of securitized ways and means advances to N30.3trn. Although securitization would reduce the cost of debt service and enhance debt transparency, it will concurrently elevate the total public debt stock to approximately N95.2trn. This represents 47.7% of the 2022 nominal GDP, surpassing the debt management office’s (DMO) debt-toGDP ratio target of 40% set for the period of 2020-2023. However, we understand that there are plans to revise Nigeria’s debt-to-GDP ratio target.

The revenue targets are laudable and indeed optimistic. However, we must emphasize that without a significant acceleration of revenue-based fiscal consolidation efforts, the FGN may fall short of meeting its revenue targets. A scenario that could potentially have negative implications for debt sustainability. However, it is important to recognize that challenges present opportunities for strategic adjustment and enhanced fiscal policies. Encouraging proactive measures and innovative strategies to boost revenue can position the FGN for greater fiscal resilience and contribute to achieving its financial goals for sustainable development.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Economy

Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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Gas-Pipeline

The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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Economy

IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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Economy

South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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