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DMO Raises N418.2bn in FGN Bonds Auction, Demand Reflects System Liquidity – Coronation Economic Note

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The DMO held its monthly auction of FGN Bonds on Monday (29 January ’24). It offered N360bn but raised N418.2bn through re-openings of the 16.29% FGN MAR 2027, 14.55% FGN APR 2029, 14.70% FGN JUN 2033, 15.45% FGN JUN 2033, 15.45% FGN JUN 2038.

The bids were allotted at the marginal rates of 15.00%, 15.50%, 16.00%, and 16.50% respectively. The bid-to-cover ratio stood at 1.45x compared to 3.24x recorded in the December auction.

The demand at this auction primarily reflects system liquidity triggered by FAAC allocation and
coupon payments. Notably, market liquidity was reported at N210.4bn on Friday (the working day
before the bond auction).

Call, overnight, and repo rates closed within a range of 7% – 19% as rates in the money market moderated. There was significant demand for longer-tenured bonds, such as the JUN 2038 bonds (N90bn was offered, demand was N311.9bn while N266.7bn was allotted).

Domestic institutions were the core participants at the auction. According to the latest monthly report by the National Pension Commission (PENCOM), FGN bonds held by pension fund administrators as at end- December ’23 increased by 24.2% y/y to N11.5trn from N9.2trn.

The PENCOM report shows that FGN bonds accounted for 62.4% of total assets under management (AUM).

December’s headline inflation increased by +72bps to 28.92% y/y. We expect to see another uptick when the NBS releases its January figure. Our view is partly hinged on exchange rate volatility which is contributing to higher prices for imported goods.

Insecurity in specific regions is disrupting supply chains, leading to shortages and increased costs for essential goods. Rising fuel prices, influenced by changes in the global oil market, are having downstream effects on transportation and production costs.

The first MPC meeting under the tenure of the new CBN Governor, has been scheduled for 26th
and 27th of February 2024, we anticipate continuous monetary policy tightening, given elevated
inflation levels.

Based on the FGN 2024 Budget, the fiscal deficit is estimated at N9.1trn which is 3.88% of the
2024 estimated nominal GDP. The deficit is expected to be financed by new borrowings of N7.8trn
(N6.1trn from domestic sources, and N1.8trn from external sources). We expect domestic fixed
income yields to remain elevated.

For FGN bonds, we currently see yields at the mid-curve around 15.9% -16.3% and between 16.6% – 18.6% at the longer end of the curve over the next 3 months.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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African ESG Bond Issuance Surges to $4.4bn in 2024

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The landscape of sustainable investment in Africa is experiencing a significant upswing as the issuance of Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) bonds by African entities hit $4.4 billion in 2024.

This substantial increase highlights a growing commitment among African institutions to raise funds for investments aligned with ESG principles.

The surge in ESG bond issuance underscores a broader trend towards responsible and sustainable investing on the continent.

The African Development Bank (AfDB) emerges as a key player in this segment, having successfully issued social bonds worth $2 billion in January 2024, in addition to hybrid sustainable bonds amounting to $750 million.

Joining the AfDB in this endeavor is the Arab Bank for Economic Development in Africa (BADEA), which, with the support of the African Export-Import Bank, has issued bonds totaling €500 million.

This momentum in the ESG bond market has propelled financial institutions like BNP Paribas, JPMorgan, and Bank of America Securities into leading positions as arrangers for such bonds on the continent.

The surge in ESG bond issuance reflects a broader global trend towards sustainable finance, with the total value of emissions of this kind expected to reach $950 billion in 2024, according to Moody’s.

It is evident that ESG bonds are gaining traction in Africa, supported by development finance institutions and initiatives aimed at fostering sustainable economic growth and development across the continent.

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Coinbase Unveils $1 Billion Convertible Bond Plan to Fuel Growth

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Coinbase Global, Inc., the renowned cryptocurrency exchange platform, has announced its strategic move to bolster its financial position by initiating a private sale of $1 billion in convertible senior notes.

The bonds, set to mature in 2030, come with an additional provision allowing initial buyers to acquire an extra $150 million to address potential over-allotments.

This ambitious plan, aimed at fortifying Coinbase’s financial foundation, underscores the company’s commitment to fostering growth and expansion in the ever-evolving cryptocurrency landscape.

The proceeds from the convertible bond issuance are earmarked for “working capital and capital expenditures,” reflecting Coinbase’s strategic vision to drive innovation and enhance its market presence.

Convertible bonds offer a unique avenue for Coinbase to raise capital, providing investors with the flexibility to convert their holdings into company stock.

This approach not only diversifies Coinbase’s funding sources but also potentially reduces interest costs compared to traditional debt financing methods.

The decision to opt for convertible bonds aligns with Coinbase’s strategy to navigate market dynamics effectively while maximizing shareholder value.

Amidst recent operational challenges, including glitches during bitcoin’s price surges, Coinbase remains steadfast in its pursuit of growth opportunities.

Coinbase’s move to secure $1 billion through convertible bonds underscores its confidence in the long-term prospects of the cryptocurrency industry.

As the company continues to innovate and adapt to market trends, investors are poised to witness Coinbase’s strategic vision translate into sustained growth and value creation in the dynamic world of digital assets.

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Nigeria Taps Citibank, JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs for Eurobond Issue

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Nigeria has taken a significant step towards its first eurobond issue since 2022 by enlisting the expertise of top-tier investment banks, including Citibank NA, JPMorgan Chase & Co., and Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

Sources familiar with the matter disclosed that the eurobond offer, anticipated before June, is yet to have its size determined.

The decision to tap into international debt markets underscores Nigeria’s quest to secure external funding to meet its expenditure requirements amidst fiscal needs.

With Africa’s largest oil producer potentially eyeing up to $1 billion in external borrowing this year, the move aligns with President Bola Tinubu’s approved spending plan of 28.8 trillion naira ($18 billion) for 2024.

Amidst Nigeria’s ambitious fiscal targets, including a budget deficit of 9.8 trillion naira, equivalent to 3.8% of gross domestic product (GDP), external borrowings remain a vital component for financing infrastructure projects and stimulating economic growth.

The engagement of renowned investment banks reflects Nigeria’s efforts to instill confidence among foreign investors and attract capital inflows.

Since assuming office in May, President Bola Tinubu has spearheaded a series of reforms aimed at revitalizing the economy, including currency devaluation and subsidy removals.

In addition to Citibank, JPMorgan, and Goldman Sachs, Standard Chartered Bank and Lagos-based Chapel Hill Denham have been engaged as advisers by the Nigerian government.

This strategic move signals Nigeria’s determination to leverage global financial expertise in navigating its fiscal landscape and tapping into international capital markets to bolster economic development.

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