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Nigeria May Adjust VAT Rate To 15% In Next Three Years ~EIU

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Value added tax - Investors King

In a bid to raise its revenue profile, Nigeria may hike its Value Added Tax (VAT) rate to 15 percent from the current 7.5 percent, according to a projection by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), London.

According to the EIU report titled, “Country Report Nigeria,” an increase in the consumption tax becomes inevitable given the rising public debt burden and the likelihood that the Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB) might not be able to deliver a considerable increase in the government’s revenue.

The Unit also projected that increase in VAT rate would be implemented in installment in the next three years to 2025.

“We expect three equal VAT rate increases, taking the rate to 15 percent by 2025. The first is expected in 2022, prior to the next elections but seemingly inevitable given a rising debt burden, with further rises in 2024 and 2025.

“Even then we expect fiscal revenue to peak at just five percent of the GDP in 2024, which also assumes no fuel subsidies beyond 2022.

“The federal government’s tax take is among the world’s lowest, undermined by widespread evasion and a large informal sector.

“The PIB is likely to be balanced between the interests of the treasury and investors, and so not deliver a considerable increase in revenue.

“Consequently, the VAT, currently at 7.5 percent, is likely to be used as a means of repairing the public finances,” the report stated.

The report also projected that public finances would remain in deficit till the year 2025, because an average global crude oil price of $63.8/barrel in 2021-25, which makes up for more than 50 percent of the federal government’s retained income, would be insufficient to balance the budget.

It added that the percentage of public debt to the GDP would stand at 35.4 percent of the GDP in 2025.

“Overall, we expect the fiscal deficit to narrow to 3.3 percent of GDP in 2021 (from 3.7 percent of the GDP in 2020) as international oil prices rise.

“Also, the VAT rate increases and rising oil prices will push down the deficit to 2.6 percent of the GDP in 2023-24, but a decline in average global oil prices in 2025 will cause the shortfall to widen to 3.0 percent of the GDP in that year.

“The government has raised its public debt limit to 40 percent of GDP to incorporate higher budget shortfalls over the medium term and to accommodate securitisation of the Central Bank of Nigeria’s deficit-financing as long-term debt. We expect public debt to reach only 35.4 percent of the GDP in 2025,” the report added.

It further projected that “high debt-servicing costs, a large public wage bill, and the purchase of COVID-19 vaccines will elevate expenditure.

“Capital investment will be emphasised to compensate for the disappearance of petrol subsidies once the PIB is enacted (which is expected in late 2021).

“The government will justify price deregulation by promising to invest the savings in infrastructure and will face pressure to match rhetoric with action,” it said.

It, however, hinged the hope of market-determined petrol pump price on the Dangote Refinery, a new 650,000-barrel/day refinery near Lagos expected to come on-stream in 2022.

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Economy

Vandalism Sparks Blackouts, Traders in Kano and Kaduna Plead for Urgent Power Restoration

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electricity

Many traders in Kano and Kaduna States have been thrown into worry over blackout.

Those affected, especially small business owners whose means of livelihoods largely depend on the availability of electricity, bemoaned the upsurge in vandalisation of public infrastructure.

This panic is coming as the Transmission Company of Nigeria announced that two towers along its 330kV Shiroro–Kaduna transmission lines 1 and 2 have been vandalised, resulting in damage to parts of both transmission lines.

As a result, some areas of Kano and Kaduna states are experiencing blackouts.

The company received a report of the damage from its Shiroro Regional Office on Friday.

A statement signed by the company’s General Manager of Public Affairs, Ndidi Mbah, indicated that arrangements are underway to deploy the newly acquired “emergency restoration system” to the site, pending the reconstruction of the damaged towers.

Although the company did not explicitly attribute the damage to bandits, it is suspected that they may be involved, particularly in light of the recent killing of 13 farmers in the Shiroro community.

According to TCN, the 330kV transmission line 1 tripped first, followed shortly by the second line while efforts were still ongoing to reclose the first. This prompted the urgent mobilisation of local vigilantes to patrol the lines.

It added that the incident revealed damage to towers T133 and T136, with cables severely damaged at multiple points.

The statement further disclosed that an aerial survey, in collaboration with security operatives, has been conducted, and temporary measures are in place to supply bulk power to the Kaduna and Kano regions via the 330kV Kaduna–Jos transmission line.

Mbah said arrangements are in top gear to deploy the newly procured ’emergency restoration system’ to the site, pending the reconstruction of the damaged towers.

He added that TCN has also conducted an aerial survey in collaboration with security operatives, given the area’s vulnerability to banditry, which poses a significant threat to both TCN installations and personnel.

A trader in Kano who identified himself as Usman, urged TCN to intensify efforts in restoring electricity to the affected areas so that more harm would not be done to businesses.

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World Bank VP Lauds CBN Governor Cardoso’s Inflation-Fighting Policies

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world bank - Investors King

The Senior Vice President of the World Bank, Indermit Gill, has praised the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, Yemi Cardoso, over his approach to managing inflation in the country.

Gill made this known during his address at the 30th Nigerian Economic Summit organized by the Nigerian Economic Summit Group in Abuja, on Monday.

The World Bank VP decried the high cost of petrol occasioned by the subsidy removal of President Tinubu’s government and the untold hardship it has imposed on Nigerians.

However, he hailed the interest rate increase by the central bank which according to him will boost confidence in the Naira and anchor inflationary expectations.

Gill emphasized that Governor Cardoso through his policies has been steering Nigeria in the right direction.

Meanwhile, Gill noted that Nigeria is just in the beginning stage of reaping the benefits of these policies.

According to him, the country will need to sustain the momentum for a period of ten to seventeen years, before achieving the desired outcome.

He revealed that countries like India, Poland, Korea, and Norway have benefitted from the approach.

He said, “Implementing such a far-reaching reform is impossible without a solid political commitment from the top. The price of PMS has quadrupled since the subsidy cut, imposing terrible hardship across the breadth of Nigeria’s society.  

“The Central Bank has had to hike its policy by a huge 850 basis point, almost 9 percentage points in the last month to boost confidence in the naira and anchor inflationary expectations.  

“The Central Bank financing of fiscal deficit has finally ended, and Governor Cardoso has been putting Nigeria or helping to put Nigeria on the right course.”

“But this is only the beginning, Nigeria will need to stay the course for at least 10 to 17 years to transform its economy. If it does that, it will transform its economy.  

“And it will become an engine of growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. And he will help to transform Sub-Saharan Africa. It’s very difficult to do these things, but the rewards are massive.  

“This is the lesson from the last forty years as well as the experience of countries such as India, Poland, Korea and Norway,” Gill said. 

Investors King reported that on September 24, 2024, the apex bank announced another increase in its Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) to 27.25% from 26.75 percent.

The decision was made during the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting chaired by CBN Governor, Yemi Cardoso.

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Sanwo-Olu Unveils Lagos Red Line Rail For Commercial Operations

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The Governor of Lagos State, Babajide Sanwo-Olu, has officially unveiled the LMRT Red Line for commercial operations.

The governor said the Red Line is the second rail system to become operational in less than two years in the state.

The 27-kilometre Red Line has eight stations at Oyingbo, Yaba, Mushin, Oshodi, Ikeja, Agege, Iju, and Agbado.

The train service is projected to transport about 500,000 Lagosians daily as the schedule is increased, providing a viable means of commuting.

In a post on his verified social media handles on Tuesday, Sanwo-Olu warned against vandalisation of the project, saying his government wouldn’t tolerate the destruction of public property.

Sanwo-Olu wrote, “Dear Lagosians, today marks the launch of commercial operations of the LMRT Red Line, commencing passenger services from Agbado to Oyingbo.

“We’re on a mission to keep Lagos moving, and the Red Line is a key part of our vision to create a seamlessly connected city. It is also our second rail system to become operational in less than two years.

“Spanning 27, the Red Line has eight stations at Oyingbo, Yaba, Mushin, Oshodi, Ikeja, Agege, Iju, and Agbado. The train service is projected to transport about 500,000 Lagosians daily as we ramp up the schedule and provide a viable means of commuting.”

He added that daily passenger services will depart from Agbado at 6:00 AM, with the second train leaving Iju Station at 7:30 AM.

“Ensure you have your Cowry Card ready to board,” he noted.

He urged residents to treat the project with the respect it deserves, stressing that “vandalism or disruptions will not be tolerated.”

He said, “Together, we can ensure that our trains remain a safe and enjoyable experience for everyone.”

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