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Unequal Access To Vaccine Slowing Down Global Economic Recovery- Okonjo-Iweala

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Financial Inclusion

African countries are lagging behind in their vaccination programme as only 20 million or 1.5 percent of the population have been fully vaccinated compared with 42 percent of people in the developed countries, according to the head of global trade watchdog.

According to the Director-General of the World Trade Organisation (WTO), Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, across Asia, Africa, and Latin America, where vaccination rates are low, COVID-19 deaths are reaching new highs.

Okonjo-Iweala, who spoke at a High-Level Dialogue on “Expanding COVID-19 vaccine manufacture to promote equitable access,” denounced the unequal access to Covid-19 vaccine as unacceptable, “for moral, practical, and economic reasons.”

She said, “Unequal access to vaccines is a major reason for the global economy’s K-shaped recovery, in which advanced economies and a few others are surging ahead, while the rest lag behind amid rising poverty, hunger and unemployment.”

The WTO chief said that 1.1 billion doses were administered worldwide in June, 45 percent more than in May, and more than double the total for April.

However, she regretted that of those 1.1 billion doses in June, only 1.4 percent went to Africans, who account for 17 percent of the global population.

“Only 0.24 percent went to people in low-income countries. And both shares declined even further in the first half of July.

“In developed countries, 94 doses have been administered for every 100 residents. In Africa, the figure is 4.5. In low-income countries, it’s 1.6,” Okonjo-Iweala said.

The WTO chief said production of covid-19 vaccines could reach 11 billion does this year, “provided new vaccines, such as Novavax and several others, secure regulatory approval.

“If production does reach 11 billion, it could help take care of global demand – in the absence of booster shot requirements.”

At the High-Level Dialogue on “Expanding COVID-19 vaccine manufacture to promote equitable access,” participants include senior policymakers, heads of multilateral agencies, vaccine manufacturers, development finance institutions, global health initiatives and public health activists.

The event, which was held under the Chatham House Rule, aimed to identify obstacles and propose solutions for increasing vaccine production and closing the wide gap in vaccination rates between rich and poor countries.

Participants described current and projected production volumes as well as plans for new investments in production capacity. They shared experiences about specific supply chain bottlenecks they were encountering, from export restrictions and raw material shortages to onerous regulatory processes, and exchanged ideas on how these might be addressed.

They discussed issues around the transfer of know-how and technology as well as factors influencing their decisions on licensing intellectual property.

While there was broad agreement on the importance of keeping supply chains open and predictable, different perspectives were expressed on the proposed waiver of the WTO’s Trade-Related Intellectual Property Rights Agreement provisions pertaining to vaccines and other products needed to combat COVID-19.

The discussions also touched upon a wide range of issues where greater international cooperation would be beneficial. For instance, multiple participants noted that uncoordinated national recognition of WHO-approved vaccines could leave many vaccinated people unable to travel to places where their vaccines are not recognised. In this regard, they urged countries to accept all WHO-approved vaccines.

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Economy

FG to Hike VAT on Luxury Goods by 15%, Exempts Essentials for Vulnerable Nigerians

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Value added tax - Investors King

Nigeria’s Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr. Wale Edun, has announced plans by the Federal Government to raise the Value Added Tax (VAT) on luxury goods by 15% despite the ongoing economic challenges.

Minister Edun made this known in Washington DC, during a meeting with investors as part of the ongoing IMF/ World Bank Annual Forum.

While essential goods consumed by poor and vulnerable Nigerians will not be affected by the increase, Edun, however, the increase in VAT will affect luxury items.

He said, “In terms of VAT, President Bola Tinubu’s commitment is that while implementing difficult and wide-range but necessary reforms, the poorest and most vulnerable will be protected.

The minister also revealed that the bill is currently under review by the National Assembly and in due time, the government will release a list of essential goods exempted from VAT to provide clarity to the public.

“So, the Bills going through the National Assembly in terms of VAT will raise VAT for the wealthy on luxury goods, while at the same time exempting or applying a zero rate to essentials that the poor and average citizens purchase,” Edun explained.

Earlier in October, Investors King reported that the FG had removed VAT on diesel and cooking gas, among others to enhance economic productivity and ease the harsh reality of the current economy.

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Economy

Global Debt-to-GDP Ratio Approaching 100%, Rising Above Pandemic Peak

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Naira Exchange Rates - Investors King

The IMF sees countries debt growing above 100% of global GDP, Vitor Gaspar, head of the Fund’s Fiscal Affairs Department said ahead of the launch of the Fiscal Monitor (FM) Wednesday (October 23) in Washington, DC.

“Deficits are high and global public debt is very high and rising. If it continues at the current pace, the global debt-to-GDP ratio will approach 100% by the end of the decade, rising above the pandemic peak,” said Gaspar about the main message from the IMF’s Fiscal Monitor report.

The Fiscal Monitor is highlighting new tools to help policymakers determining the risk of high levels of debt.

“Assessing and managing public debt risks is a major task for policymakers. The Fiscal Monitor makes a major contribution. The Debt at Risk Framework. It considers the distribution of outcomes around the most likely scenario. The analysis in the Fiscal Monitor shows that debt risks are substantially worse than they look from the baseline alone. The framework should help policymakers take preemptive action to avoid the most adverse outcomes.”

Gaspar said that there’s a careful balance between keeping debt lower, versus necessary spending on people, infrastructure and social priorities.

“The Fiscal Monitor identifies three main drivers of debt risks. First, spending pressures from long term underlying trends, but also challenging politics at national, continental and global levels. Second, optimistic bias in debt projections. And third, increasing uncertainty associated with economic, financial and political developments.

Spending pressures from long term underlying trends and from challenging politics at national, continental and global levels. The key is for countries to get started on getting debt under control and to keep at it. Waiting is risky. The longer you wait, the greater the risk the debt becomes unsustainable. At the same time, countries that can afford it should avoid cutting too much, too fast. That would hurt growth and jobs. That is why in many cases we recommend an enduring but gradual fiscal adjustment.”

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IMF Attributes Nigeria’s Economic Downgrade to Inflation, Flooding, and Oil Woes

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IMF - Investors King

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has blamed the downgrade of Nigeria’s economic growth particularly on the effects of recent inflation, flooding and oil production setbacks.

In its World Economic Outlook (WEO) published on Tuesday, the Bretton Wood institution noted that Nigeria’s economy has grown in the last two quarters despite inflation and the weakening of the local currency, however, this could only translate to 2.9 percent in 2024 and 3.2 percent in 2025.

“Nigeria’s economy in the first and second quarter of the year grew by 2.98% and 3.19% respectively amid a surge in inflation and further depreciation of the Naira.

“The GDP growth rate in the first two quarters of 2024 surpassed the figure for 2023, representing resilience despite severe macroeconomic shocks with a spike in petrol prices and a 28-year high inflation rate,” the report seen by Investors King shows.

The spokesperson for IMF’s Research Department, Mr Jean-Marc Natal, said agricultural disruptions caused by severe flooding and security and maintenance issues hampering oil production were key drivers of the revision.

“There has been, over the last year and a half, some progress in the region. You saw, inflation stabilising in some countries, going down even and reaching a level close to the target. So, half of them are still at a large distance from the target, and a third of them are still having double-digit inflation.

“In terms of growth, it’s quite uneven, but it remains too low. The other issue is that in the region it is still high. It has stopped increasing, and in some countries already starting to consolidate, but it’s still too high, and the debt service is, correspondingly, still high in the region,” he said.

It also expects to see some changes in Nigeria’s inflation, which has slowed down in July and August before rising to 32.7 percent in September 2024.

“Nigeria’s inflation rate only began to slow down in July 2024 after 19 months of consistent increase dating back to January 2023.

“However, after two months of slowdown hiatus, inflation continued to rise on the back of an increase in petrol prices by the NNPCL in September,” the report said.

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