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Nigeria’s Key Economic Indicators Following Devaluation

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Following the Central Bank of Nigeria’s decision to devalue the Nigerian Naira, Investors King has decided to assess Nigeria’s key economic indicators and their impacts on economic productivity and stakeholders at large.

Consumer Prices, which measures the inflation rate, moderated to 18.12 percent in the month of April from 18.17 percent in March 2021 despite the ongoing herders and farmers crisis.

At the monetary policy committee meeting held on Monday 24th and Tuesday 25th May 2021, the committee attributed the slight improvement to a series of adjustments made by the central bank, even when consumer prices continue to jump in reality.

A bag of pure water/sachet water has risen by N40 from N140 to N180 in Ibadan while prices of other food items have gone up by almost 50 percent and more in some cases.

Still, the National Bureau of Statistics showed food inflation decline marginally in April to 22.72 percent, down from 22.95 percent in March.

Feyintola Bolaji, a merchant in Ibadan, Oyo State, said rising prices has eaten deep into her sales as she had to cut down on the amount she now put on her own family’s table.

“It is really bad, I can’t simply afford to give my children what they really need in terms of food,” said Bolaji, a mother of three in her 50s based in the southwestern city of Ibadan. “I try to make them get the nutrients they need as growing children, but it is not enough,” she said, adding “I have had to cut down on meat and fish.”

Last week, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) adopted the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Rate Fixing (NAFEX) as the official rate following failure to sustain its managed lower exchange because of the dwindling foreign reserves and refusal of multilateral financial institutions to grant Nigeria any loan until an effort is made at converging the nation’s foreign exchange rates.

The move led to a N31 devaluation from N379/$1 to N410/$1. A decision widely criticised by experts given Nigeria’s economic reality post-COVID-19.

The nation’s manufacturers have blamed the intermittent devaluation of Naira and persistent dollar scarcity for the weak manufacturing sector. Nigeria’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index stood at 49, suggesting that activity remains weak in the sector despite the 0.51 percent GDP growth rate recorded in the first quarter of the year.

Nigeria’s unemployment stood at 33.3 percent as new job creation plunge with new investments and capital importation. Experts have blamed the lack of a clear economic path, rising insecurities, low fiscal buffer and weak fundamentals for the drop in new investments and the new jobs needed to plug falling household income and consumer spending.

Still, the apex bank left the interest rate unchanged at 11.5 percent, citing the need to attain price stability. However, this is because Nigeria’s inflation is cost-push, ‘substantial rise in the cost of goods and services due to underlying factors like increase in electricity, import duty, high forex, etc.’ Meaning, an adjustment to the monetary policy rate will have little to zero impact on rising prices as long as the present economic conditions remain.

Therefore, Investors King expected a persistent increase in prices to further weigh on consumer spending, drag on economic productivity and force more companies to cut jobs.

Is the CEO and Founder of Investors King Limited. He is a seasoned foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Business Insider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and other prominent platforms. With over two decades of experience in global financial markets, Olukoya is well-recognized in the industry.

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Vandalism Sparks Blackouts, Traders in Kano and Kaduna Plead for Urgent Power Restoration

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Many traders in Kano and Kaduna States have been thrown into worry over blackout.

Those affected, especially small business owners whose means of livelihoods largely depend on the availability of electricity, bemoaned the upsurge in vandalisation of public infrastructure.

This panic is coming as the Transmission Company of Nigeria announced that two towers along its 330kV Shiroro–Kaduna transmission lines 1 and 2 have been vandalised, resulting in damage to parts of both transmission lines.

As a result, some areas of Kano and Kaduna states are experiencing blackouts.

The company received a report of the damage from its Shiroro Regional Office on Friday.

A statement signed by the company’s General Manager of Public Affairs, Ndidi Mbah, indicated that arrangements are underway to deploy the newly acquired “emergency restoration system” to the site, pending the reconstruction of the damaged towers.

Although the company did not explicitly attribute the damage to bandits, it is suspected that they may be involved, particularly in light of the recent killing of 13 farmers in the Shiroro community.

According to TCN, the 330kV transmission line 1 tripped first, followed shortly by the second line while efforts were still ongoing to reclose the first. This prompted the urgent mobilisation of local vigilantes to patrol the lines.

It added that the incident revealed damage to towers T133 and T136, with cables severely damaged at multiple points.

The statement further disclosed that an aerial survey, in collaboration with security operatives, has been conducted, and temporary measures are in place to supply bulk power to the Kaduna and Kano regions via the 330kV Kaduna–Jos transmission line.

Mbah said arrangements are in top gear to deploy the newly procured ’emergency restoration system’ to the site, pending the reconstruction of the damaged towers.

He added that TCN has also conducted an aerial survey in collaboration with security operatives, given the area’s vulnerability to banditry, which poses a significant threat to both TCN installations and personnel.

A trader in Kano who identified himself as Usman, urged TCN to intensify efforts in restoring electricity to the affected areas so that more harm would not be done to businesses.

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World Bank VP Lauds CBN Governor Cardoso’s Inflation-Fighting Policies

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The Senior Vice President of the World Bank, Indermit Gill, has praised the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, Yemi Cardoso, over his approach to managing inflation in the country.

Gill made this known during his address at the 30th Nigerian Economic Summit organized by the Nigerian Economic Summit Group in Abuja, on Monday.

The World Bank VP decried the high cost of petrol occasioned by the subsidy removal of President Tinubu’s government and the untold hardship it has imposed on Nigerians.

However, he hailed the interest rate increase by the central bank which according to him will boost confidence in the Naira and anchor inflationary expectations.

Gill emphasized that Governor Cardoso through his policies has been steering Nigeria in the right direction.

Meanwhile, Gill noted that Nigeria is just in the beginning stage of reaping the benefits of these policies.

According to him, the country will need to sustain the momentum for a period of ten to seventeen years, before achieving the desired outcome.

He revealed that countries like India, Poland, Korea, and Norway have benefitted from the approach.

He said, “Implementing such a far-reaching reform is impossible without a solid political commitment from the top. The price of PMS has quadrupled since the subsidy cut, imposing terrible hardship across the breadth of Nigeria’s society.  

“The Central Bank has had to hike its policy by a huge 850 basis point, almost 9 percentage points in the last month to boost confidence in the naira and anchor inflationary expectations.  

“The Central Bank financing of fiscal deficit has finally ended, and Governor Cardoso has been putting Nigeria or helping to put Nigeria on the right course.”

“But this is only the beginning, Nigeria will need to stay the course for at least 10 to 17 years to transform its economy. If it does that, it will transform its economy.  

“And it will become an engine of growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. And he will help to transform Sub-Saharan Africa. It’s very difficult to do these things, but the rewards are massive.  

“This is the lesson from the last forty years as well as the experience of countries such as India, Poland, Korea and Norway,” Gill said. 

Investors King reported that on September 24, 2024, the apex bank announced another increase in its Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) to 27.25% from 26.75 percent.

The decision was made during the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting chaired by CBN Governor, Yemi Cardoso.

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Sanwo-Olu Unveils Lagos Red Line Rail For Commercial Operations

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The Governor of Lagos State, Babajide Sanwo-Olu, has officially unveiled the LMRT Red Line for commercial operations.

The governor said the Red Line is the second rail system to become operational in less than two years in the state.

The 27-kilometre Red Line has eight stations at Oyingbo, Yaba, Mushin, Oshodi, Ikeja, Agege, Iju, and Agbado.

The train service is projected to transport about 500,000 Lagosians daily as the schedule is increased, providing a viable means of commuting.

In a post on his verified social media handles on Tuesday, Sanwo-Olu warned against vandalisation of the project, saying his government wouldn’t tolerate the destruction of public property.

Sanwo-Olu wrote, “Dear Lagosians, today marks the launch of commercial operations of the LMRT Red Line, commencing passenger services from Agbado to Oyingbo.

“We’re on a mission to keep Lagos moving, and the Red Line is a key part of our vision to create a seamlessly connected city. It is also our second rail system to become operational in less than two years.

“Spanning 27, the Red Line has eight stations at Oyingbo, Yaba, Mushin, Oshodi, Ikeja, Agege, Iju, and Agbado. The train service is projected to transport about 500,000 Lagosians daily as we ramp up the schedule and provide a viable means of commuting.”

He added that daily passenger services will depart from Agbado at 6:00 AM, with the second train leaving Iju Station at 7:30 AM.

“Ensure you have your Cowry Card ready to board,” he noted.

He urged residents to treat the project with the respect it deserves, stressing that “vandalism or disruptions will not be tolerated.”

He said, “Together, we can ensure that our trains remain a safe and enjoyable experience for everyone.”

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