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Foreign Reserves to Rise on $2.5b Eurobond Issuance

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  • Foreign Reserves to Rising on $2.5b Eurobond Issuance

Nigeria’s 42.8 billion external reserves will go up, with the successful issuance of the $2.5 billion Eurobond offer, a report said at the weekend.

Besides, cumulative transactions in the Investors’ & Exporters’ (I&E) forex window have hit $20 billion, said one of the reports on the economy released by two investment and research firms at the weekend.

They said Nigeria is showing signs of recovery after a difficult economic period that followed historically low oil prices, a currency devaluation, and high inflation.

Afrinvest West Africa Limited’s report said the $2.5 billion Eurobond cash raised by the Federal Government to refinance maturing short term local debt securities will push foreign reserves to new heights. “We expect further accretion to external reserves currently at a 48-month high of $42.8 billion with positive feedback on the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN’s) ability to sustain foreign exchange intervention sales,” it said.

External reserve was $40.4 billion last December. The last time the foreign reserves hit the $40 billion mark was January 2014, about five months before the crash in global oil prices. In September 2008, the country’s foreign exchange reserves hit $62 billion, with the Federal Government spending $12 billion from it to settle external debts.

The report said that despite downside risks of volatility in the oil market and political uncertainty, the short term positive outlook on forex market stability and liquidity remains intact.

Another report from Exotic Capital titled: ‘Fragile Recovery, Positive Outlook’, also released at the weekend, said that Nigeria’s forex regime, although still far from ideal, had begun to stabilise.

“A multiple currency regime evolved after the oil price fall in 2014 and the June 2016 devaluation, which led to a widening divergence between the official and parallel markets (the parallel market premium reached 100 per cent in January 2017). The current regime has shown a vast improvement this year with introduction of the I&E Forex window last April,” it said.

It said the parallel rate for naira is in the N360 to N365 range, nearly identical to the I&E Forex window rate used for international investors as well as importers and exporters, and has seen close to $20 billion in cumulative transactions since its introduction.

The Exotic Capital report said that despite the relative successes of the I&E Forex window, the current forex regime of multiple windows has hurt, and will continue to hurt, the economy over the medium term. “Not only does it create economic distortions (leading to market inefficiencies and dead-weight loss), it also builds mistrust among market participants who fear that competitors were able to access forex at different rates, doing little to create transparency and move the economy forward,” it said.

“Furthermore, we suspect that long-term domestic investment has been hampered as uncertainty looms not only over the future value of the currency but also over the regime. Nevertheless, we do not expect the CBN to make any major forex adjustments ahead of the 2019 presidential election unless oil prices / production falls again (as that would hinder its ability to supply forex to meet demand),” the report added.

It doubted the possibility of the CBN adopting market-determined rate (free float), but “as an interim approach, it could consider unifying its multiple rates around the I&E Forex window rate, which we think would help it to attract more portfolio and direct investment, as well as mitigating some of the previously-discussed issues”, the report.

Market data showed that CBN last week continued its weekly forex interventions, injecting $100 million on Monday via wholesale SMIS intervention.

A total of $55 million was auctioned at the Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) segment while $55 million was sold to satisfy retail invisible demand (Tuition fee, medical payments and Business Travel Allowance).

The forex rates traded within a tight band at all segments of the market with the CBN official spot rate trading flat all week after initial five kobo depreciation on Monday to N305.90/$1.00.C

Is the CEO and Founder of Investors King Limited. He is a seasoned foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Business Insider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and other prominent platforms. With over two decades of experience in global financial markets, Olukoya is well-recognized in the industry.

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Economy

IMF Approves Reforms to Support Low-Income Countries From Shocks

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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has approved a set of reforms that will help it support Low-Income Countries (LICs) from shocks over the long term.

The changes to the lender’s concessional lending facilities were contained in a statement by the IMF on Monday.

The US-based lender said these reforms are detailed in the staff paper “2024 Review of the Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust (PRGT) Facilities and Financing—Reform Proposals.”

The fund said it significantly scaled up support to its low-income members in response to the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent major shocks.

“The annual lending commitments have risen to an average of SDR 5.5 billion since 2020, compared with about SDR 1.2 billion during the preceding decade,” the statement said.

“Outstanding PRGT credit has tripled since the pandemic’s onset, while funding costs at the SDR interest rate have risen sharply. As a result, the PRGT faces an acute funding shortfall, with its self-sustained lending capacity projected to decline, absent reforms, to about SDR 1 billion a year by 2027, well below expected demand.”

The reforms approved by the IMF’s Executive Board aim at maintaining adequate financial support to low-income countries while restoring the self-sustainability of the PRGT.

“The Executive Board today endorsed a long-term annual lending envelope of SDR 2.7 billion ($3.6 billion) and approved a package of policy reforms and resource mobilization to support that lending capacity.

“The envelope, which is more than twice the pre-pandemic capacity, is calibrated to ensure that the Fund can use its limited concessional resources to continue providing vital balance of payment support to LICs, while supporting strong economic policies and catalyzing fresh financing from other sources.

“The Review includes policy changes that reflect the increasing economic heterogeneity among LICs. A new tiered interest rate mechanism will enhance the targeting of scarce PRGT resources to the poorest LICs, which will continue to benefit from interest-free lending, while better-off LICs will be charged a modest, and still concessional, interest rate,” the statement said.

After a successful bilateral fundraising, and in the context of a robust financial outlook for the Fund, the membership reached consensus on a framework to deploy IMF internal resources to facilitate the generation of PRGT subsidy resources.

Specifically, the fund said SDR 5.9 billion (about $ 8 billion), in 2025 present value terms, is expected to be generated through a framework to distribute GRA net income and/or reserves over the next five years.

This is in addition to bilateral subsidy contributions, the subsidy savings from the new interest rate mechanism, and financing from a proposed further five-year suspension of PRGT administrative expenses reimbursement to the GRA.

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Vandalism Sparks Blackouts, Traders in Kano and Kaduna Plead for Urgent Power Restoration

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electricity

Many traders in Kano and Kaduna States have been thrown into worry over blackout.

Those affected, especially small business owners whose means of livelihoods largely depend on the availability of electricity, bemoaned the upsurge in vandalisation of public infrastructure.

This panic is coming as the Transmission Company of Nigeria announced that two towers along its 330kV Shiroro–Kaduna transmission lines 1 and 2 have been vandalised, resulting in damage to parts of both transmission lines.

As a result, some areas of Kano and Kaduna states are experiencing blackouts.

The company received a report of the damage from its Shiroro Regional Office on Friday.

A statement signed by the company’s General Manager of Public Affairs, Ndidi Mbah, indicated that arrangements are underway to deploy the newly acquired “emergency restoration system” to the site, pending the reconstruction of the damaged towers.

Although the company did not explicitly attribute the damage to bandits, it is suspected that they may be involved, particularly in light of the recent killing of 13 farmers in the Shiroro community.

According to TCN, the 330kV transmission line 1 tripped first, followed shortly by the second line while efforts were still ongoing to reclose the first. This prompted the urgent mobilisation of local vigilantes to patrol the lines.

It added that the incident revealed damage to towers T133 and T136, with cables severely damaged at multiple points.

The statement further disclosed that an aerial survey, in collaboration with security operatives, has been conducted, and temporary measures are in place to supply bulk power to the Kaduna and Kano regions via the 330kV Kaduna–Jos transmission line.

Mbah said arrangements are in top gear to deploy the newly procured ’emergency restoration system’ to the site, pending the reconstruction of the damaged towers.

He added that TCN has also conducted an aerial survey in collaboration with security operatives, given the area’s vulnerability to banditry, which poses a significant threat to both TCN installations and personnel.

A trader in Kano who identified himself as Usman, urged TCN to intensify efforts in restoring electricity to the affected areas so that more harm would not be done to businesses.

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Economy

World Bank VP Lauds CBN Governor Cardoso’s Inflation-Fighting Policies

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The Senior Vice President of the World Bank, Indermit Gill, has praised the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, Yemi Cardoso, over his approach to managing inflation in the country.

Gill made this known during his address at the 30th Nigerian Economic Summit organized by the Nigerian Economic Summit Group in Abuja, on Monday.

The World Bank VP decried the high cost of petrol occasioned by the subsidy removal of President Tinubu’s government and the untold hardship it has imposed on Nigerians.

However, he hailed the interest rate increase by the central bank which according to him will boost confidence in the Naira and anchor inflationary expectations.

Gill emphasized that Governor Cardoso through his policies has been steering Nigeria in the right direction.

Meanwhile, Gill noted that Nigeria is just in the beginning stage of reaping the benefits of these policies.

According to him, the country will need to sustain the momentum for a period of ten to seventeen years, before achieving the desired outcome.

He revealed that countries like India, Poland, Korea, and Norway have benefitted from the approach.

He said, “Implementing such a far-reaching reform is impossible without a solid political commitment from the top. The price of PMS has quadrupled since the subsidy cut, imposing terrible hardship across the breadth of Nigeria’s society.  

“The Central Bank has had to hike its policy by a huge 850 basis point, almost 9 percentage points in the last month to boost confidence in the naira and anchor inflationary expectations.  

“The Central Bank financing of fiscal deficit has finally ended, and Governor Cardoso has been putting Nigeria or helping to put Nigeria on the right course.”

“But this is only the beginning, Nigeria will need to stay the course for at least 10 to 17 years to transform its economy. If it does that, it will transform its economy.  

“And it will become an engine of growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. And he will help to transform Sub-Saharan Africa. It’s very difficult to do these things, but the rewards are massive.  

“This is the lesson from the last forty years as well as the experience of countries such as India, Poland, Korea and Norway,” Gill said. 

Investors King reported that on September 24, 2024, the apex bank announced another increase in its Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) to 27.25% from 26.75 percent.

The decision was made during the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting chaired by CBN Governor, Yemi Cardoso.

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