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Scarcity: NBS Puts Average Price of Petrol at N191/Litre

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Many Nigerians are still paying far above N145 per litre pump price of petrol approved by the Federal Government for the product, a report of the National Bureau of Statistics has indicated.

The NBS in its Premium Motor Spirit (petrol) price watch for January stated that on the average, Nigerians paid the sum of N190.9 per litre for the product.

This is about N46 per litre higher than the official pump price of the product.

The report, a copy of which was made available to our correspondent by the NBS on Friday, is based on the actual amount spent by households for the purchase of the PMS across the federation.

According to the report, consumers in Osun State were the worst hit as they paid N228.89 for the product in January.

This is an increase of 36.2 per cent over the amount which the product sold in December in the state.

Abia and Benue states followed as consumers N227.5 and N223.33 per litre respectively, for the product.

On the other hand, the report gave states with the lowest price of petrol as Zamfara, N159.12 per litre; Gombe, N157.73; and Kogi, N152.83.

Many states in the North and other parts of the country are still suffering untold hardship caused by the severe scarcity of petrol.

Kaduna, Nasarawa and Niger states as well as the Federal Capital Territory have been experiencing persistent petrol scarcity since last year, even as the queues for the PMS have spread to other states.

Speaking on the impact of the fuel crisis on the economy, financial analysts said there was a need for the Federal Government to adopt a “smart card initiative” to address the problem.

They said this would enable interested owners of commercial vehicles, including official vehicles owned by educational institutions, hospitals, religious bodies and government agencies to register and obtain the card for purchasing fuel at regulated prices from petrol stations owned by the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation.

The Head, Banking and Finance Department, Nasarawa State University, Keffi, Uche Uwalaka, in a chat with our correspondent, said the model which had already recorded huge success in Egypt and Libya would help to address the lingering issue of fuel scarcity in the country.

He said the need to adopt the model had become imperative following the claims that the N145 per liter pump price of petrol was no longer sustainable as a result of the high price of crude oil in the international market.

Uwaleke, an associate professor of finance, recommended that with the smart cards, which would be swiped at the NNPC filling stations, consumers would be able to buy a limited amount of subsidised fuel, and would need to pay a market price for any extra amount of fuel needed.

He added that private car owners, on the other hand, would be expected to buy fuel at market prices from petrol stations operated by the private sector.

He said, “The NNPC cannot continue to shoulder the responsibility of petroleum products imports alone without the support of the private sector.

“Indeed, many argue that fuel subsidies come with negative consequences for the economy including encouraging wasteful energy consumption, creating fiscal burden on government budgets, increasing health and environmental costs of fossil fuels as well as helping to promote inequality.

“In fact, studies have shown that the richest 20 per cent of households in low and middle-income countries use six times more subsidised fuel than the poorest 20 per cent.

“But then, it is equally a fact that the removal of subsidy would have catastrophic consequences on the poorer stratum of society.”

He added, “Therefore, the right balance that guarantees minimal distortion to the economy is for Nigeria to domesticate a model which has been used with some degree of success in some oil producing countries in Africa notably Egypt and Libya.

“It is the fuel smart-card initiative whereby interested owners of commercial vehicles, including official vehicles owned by educational institutions, hospitals, religious bodies and government agencies would be required to register and obtain smart cards for purchasing fuel at regulated prices from the NNPC petrol stations.”

Is the CEO and Founder of Investors King Limited. He is a seasoned foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Business Insider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and other prominent platforms. With over two decades of experience in global financial markets, Olukoya is well-recognized in the industry.

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FG to Hike VAT on Luxury Goods by 15%, Exempts Essentials for Vulnerable Nigerians

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Value added tax - Investors King

Nigeria’s Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr. Wale Edun, has announced plans by the Federal Government to raise the Value Added Tax (VAT) on luxury goods by 15% despite the ongoing economic challenges.

Minister Edun made this known in Washington DC, during a meeting with investors as part of the ongoing IMF/ World Bank Annual Forum.

While essential goods consumed by poor and vulnerable Nigerians will not be affected by the increase, Edun, however, the increase in VAT will affect luxury items.

He said, “In terms of VAT, President Bola Tinubu’s commitment is that while implementing difficult and wide-range but necessary reforms, the poorest and most vulnerable will be protected.

The minister also revealed that the bill is currently under review by the National Assembly and in due time, the government will release a list of essential goods exempted from VAT to provide clarity to the public.

“So, the Bills going through the National Assembly in terms of VAT will raise VAT for the wealthy on luxury goods, while at the same time exempting or applying a zero rate to essentials that the poor and average citizens purchase,” Edun explained.

Earlier in October, Investors King reported that the FG had removed VAT on diesel and cooking gas, among others to enhance economic productivity and ease the harsh reality of the current economy.

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Global Debt-to-GDP Ratio Approaching 100%, Rising Above Pandemic Peak

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Naira Exchange Rates - Investors King

The IMF sees countries debt growing above 100% of global GDP, Vitor Gaspar, head of the Fund’s Fiscal Affairs Department said ahead of the launch of the Fiscal Monitor (FM) Wednesday (October 23) in Washington, DC.

“Deficits are high and global public debt is very high and rising. If it continues at the current pace, the global debt-to-GDP ratio will approach 100% by the end of the decade, rising above the pandemic peak,” said Gaspar about the main message from the IMF’s Fiscal Monitor report.

The Fiscal Monitor is highlighting new tools to help policymakers determining the risk of high levels of debt.

“Assessing and managing public debt risks is a major task for policymakers. The Fiscal Monitor makes a major contribution. The Debt at Risk Framework. It considers the distribution of outcomes around the most likely scenario. The analysis in the Fiscal Monitor shows that debt risks are substantially worse than they look from the baseline alone. The framework should help policymakers take preemptive action to avoid the most adverse outcomes.”

Gaspar said that there’s a careful balance between keeping debt lower, versus necessary spending on people, infrastructure and social priorities.

“The Fiscal Monitor identifies three main drivers of debt risks. First, spending pressures from long term underlying trends, but also challenging politics at national, continental and global levels. Second, optimistic bias in debt projections. And third, increasing uncertainty associated with economic, financial and political developments.

Spending pressures from long term underlying trends and from challenging politics at national, continental and global levels. The key is for countries to get started on getting debt under control and to keep at it. Waiting is risky. The longer you wait, the greater the risk the debt becomes unsustainable. At the same time, countries that can afford it should avoid cutting too much, too fast. That would hurt growth and jobs. That is why in many cases we recommend an enduring but gradual fiscal adjustment.”

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IMF Attributes Nigeria’s Economic Downgrade to Inflation, Flooding, and Oil Woes

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IMF - Investors King

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has blamed the downgrade of Nigeria’s economic growth particularly on the effects of recent inflation, flooding and oil production setbacks.

In its World Economic Outlook (WEO) published on Tuesday, the Bretton Wood institution noted that Nigeria’s economy has grown in the last two quarters despite inflation and the weakening of the local currency, however, this could only translate to 2.9 percent in 2024 and 3.2 percent in 2025.

“Nigeria’s economy in the first and second quarter of the year grew by 2.98% and 3.19% respectively amid a surge in inflation and further depreciation of the Naira.

“The GDP growth rate in the first two quarters of 2024 surpassed the figure for 2023, representing resilience despite severe macroeconomic shocks with a spike in petrol prices and a 28-year high inflation rate,” the report seen by Investors King shows.

The spokesperson for IMF’s Research Department, Mr Jean-Marc Natal, said agricultural disruptions caused by severe flooding and security and maintenance issues hampering oil production were key drivers of the revision.

“There has been, over the last year and a half, some progress in the region. You saw, inflation stabilising in some countries, going down even and reaching a level close to the target. So, half of them are still at a large distance from the target, and a third of them are still having double-digit inflation.

“In terms of growth, it’s quite uneven, but it remains too low. The other issue is that in the region it is still high. It has stopped increasing, and in some countries already starting to consolidate, but it’s still too high, and the debt service is, correspondingly, still high in the region,” he said.

It also expects to see some changes in Nigeria’s inflation, which has slowed down in July and August before rising to 32.7 percent in September 2024.

“Nigeria’s inflation rate only began to slow down in July 2024 after 19 months of consistent increase dating back to January 2023.

“However, after two months of slowdown hiatus, inflation continued to rise on the back of an increase in petrol prices by the NNPCL in September,” the report said.

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