Forex

Forex Weekly Outlook December 18-22

Published

6 years ago

December 18, 2017

Forex Weekly Outlook December 18-22

The ongoing U.S. tax reform continued to dictate global financial markets. However, with the reform likely to go through this week, the U.S. dollar is poised for a substantial gain against most currencies. Especially after the Reserve Bank raised interest rates by 25 basis points last week as projected and the economy continued to create jobs with further improvement of 3.9 percent unemployment rate projected for 2018.

But with the consumer prices and wage growth below expectations, the central bank may be compelled to review its policy stance in 2018 and not expect tightening labor market to eventually boost wage growth.

In the UK, the consumer prices rose to 3.1 percent, higher than the expected 3.0 percent while wages climbed 0.2 percent in the three months through October, suggesting that the weak pound sterling and the uncertainties surrounding the Brexit negotiation are weighing on prices in the U.K. and subsequently impacting the economic growth. Also, the while manufacturing surged on growing overseas orders in October, activities in the services sector slowed in the month. Services sector contribute about 80 percent of the total U.K. economy.

Here is our weekly pick, EURUSD, AUDUSD, CADJPY GBPUSD and EURNZD.

EURUSD

The lack of monetary direction from the European Central Bank impacted the Euro outlook, especially the decision of the central bank to maintain record-low interest rates even with growing economy.

However, the US dollar, on the other hand, was bolstered by the Federal Reserve decision to raise interest rates has projected and the plan to further complement this with a robust fiscal policy.

Therefore, this week the US dollar is expected to further gain against the Euro single currency towards the ascending channel at 1.1698, a sustained break below the 1.1685 should open up 1.1581 if the tax reform eventually goes through. Hence, we are bearish on EURUSD.

AUDUSD

The Australian dollar rebounded last week against the US dollar, however, this is likely a temporary upsurge due to better than expected retail sales and job numbers. This is because the Australian economy remains weak; growing at 0.6 percent rate in the third quarter and retail sales that rebounded in October has been down for three previous months due to growing household debt and weak consumer spending.

This week, the strong US economic fundamentals and tax reform possibility are likely to boost the US attractiveness against the Aussie dollar. Therefore, we remain bearish on AUDUSD as explained previous, and expect a break below the ascending channel at 0.7515 to open up 0.7385 (new target).

EURNZD

After peaking at a 39-month record three weeks ago, this pair called the top at 1.7481 price level and dropped 677 pips. Meaning, the European Central Bank’s monetary stance plunged the euro against the New Zealand dollar.

This week, the weak euro is expected to dip further against haven currency, Kiwi. A sustained break of 1.6804 price level should open up 1.6395, target 1.

GBPUSD

As previously explained, even though construction sector expanded more than projected in November, new investment remained weak, suggesting that investors are holding back due to growing economic and political uncertainty in the region. Therefore, a positive Brexit agreement or meeting is necessary to boost business confidence and sustain economic activities.

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Samed Olukoya

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Naira

Black Market Dollar (USD) to Naira (NGN) Exchange Rate Today 27th May 2024

The black market, also known as the parallel market or Aboki fx, US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of May 27th, 2024 stood at 1 USD to ₦1,520.

Published

10 hours ago

May 27, 2024

Samed Olukoya

The black market, also known as the parallel market or Aboki fx, US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of May 27th, 2024 stood at 1 USD to ₦1,520.

Recent data from Bureau De Change (BDC) reveals that buyers in the Lagos Parallel Market purchased a dollar for ₦1,490 and sold it at ₦1,480 on Friday, May 24th, 2024.

This indicates a decline in the Naira exchange rate when compared to today’s rate.

The black market rate plays a crucial role for investors and participants, offering a real-time reflection of currency dynamics outside official or regulated exchange channels.

Monitoring these rates provides insights into the immediate value of the Naira against the dollar, guiding decision-making processes for individuals and businesses alike.

It’s important to note that while the black market offers valuable insights, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not officially recognize its existence.

The CBN advises individuals engaging in forex transactions to utilize official banking channels, emphasizing the importance of compliance with regulatory frameworks.

How much is dollar to naira today in the black market

For those navigating the currency exchange landscape, here are the latest figures for the black market exchange rate:

Buying Rate: ₦1,520
Selling Rate: ₦1,510

As economic conditions continue to evolve, staying informed about currency exchange rates empowers individuals to make informed financial decisions. While the black market provides immediate insights, adherence to regulatory guidelines ensures stability and transparency in forex transactions.

Forex

CBN Revamps Regulatory Guidelines for Bureau De Change Operators

Published

4 days ago

May 23, 2024

Samed Olukoya

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has initiated a comprehensive overhaul of regulatory guidelines governing Bureau De Change (BDC) operators.

Following extensive consultations with stakeholders, the CBN has introduced a series of pivotal changes aimed at enhancing the efficiency and transparency of BDC operations across the country.

Key among the reforms is the removal of the mandatory caution deposit previously set at N200 million for tier-1 BDC license holders, as well as the waiver of the N50 million deposit requirement for tier-2 license holders.

This move is expected to alleviate the financial burden on BDCs and enable them to allocate resources more effectively.

Furthermore, the non-refundable annual license renewal fee, which previously amounted to N5 million for tier-1 BDCs and N1 million for tier-2 BDCs, has been withdrawn.

This adjustment seeks to streamline the regulatory framework and eliminate unnecessary financial obligations for BDC operators.

Haruna Mustafa, Director of the Financial Policy and Regulation Department at the CBN, emphasized the importance of these changes in optimizing BDC operations and fostering financial inclusivity.

Mustafa underscored the need for existing BDCs to reapply for licenses based on their preferred tier or license category, as outlined in the revised guidelines.

Also, new license applicants must adhere to the specified conditions for their chosen BDC category.

Existing BDCs are required to meet the minimum capital requirements for their selected license category within six months from the effective date of the guidelines, ensuring a smooth transition to the new regulatory framework.

In alignment with market needs and regulatory standards, the guidelines have also been updated to revise permissible activities for BDCs.

These revisions aim to enhance market efficiency and ensure compliance with corporate governance requirements, as well as anti-money laundering, counter-terrorism financing, and counter-proliferation financing provisions.

The CBN has announced that the receipt and processing of license applications will commence from the effective date of the guideline.

Interested applicants are directed to submit the necessary information electronically to bdclicense@cbn.gov.ng, including the name of the promoter, name of the proposed BDC, email address, and phone number of the promoter.

These comprehensive guidelines replace the previous operational guidelines issued in November 2015 and underscore the CBN’s commitment to fostering a robust and transparent forex market.

The Regulatory and Supervisory Guidelines for BDC Operations are scheduled to take effect from June 3, 2024, signaling a new era for BDC operators in Nigeria.

Naira

Black Market Dollar (USD) to Naira (NGN) Exchange Rate Today 23rd May 2024

The black market, also known as the parallel market or Aboki fx, US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of May 23rd, 2024 stood at 1 USD to ₦1,500.

Published

4 days ago

May 23, 2024

Samed Olukoya

The black market, also known as the parallel market or Aboki fx, US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of May 23rd, 2024 stood at 1 USD to ₦1,500.

Recent data from Bureau De Change (BDC) reveals that buyers in the Lagos Parallel Market purchased a dollar for ₦1,470 and sold it at ₦1,460 on Wednesday, May 22nd, 2024.

This indicates a decline in the Naira exchange rate when compared to today’s rate.

The black market rate plays a crucial role for investors and participants, offering a real-time reflection of currency dynamics outside official or regulated exchange channels.

Monitoring these rates provides insights into the immediate value of the Naira against the dollar, guiding decision-making processes for individuals and businesses alike.

It’s important to note that while the black market offers valuable insights, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not officially recognize its existence.

The CBN advises individuals engaging in forex transactions to utilize official banking channels, emphasizing the importance of compliance with regulatory frameworks.