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NBS to Release Q3 Growth Data as MPC Meets Today

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CBN
  • NBS to Release Q3 Growth Data as MPC Meets Today

The Central Bank of Nigeria’s Monetary Policy Committee will on Monday (today) and Tuesday hold its final meeting for the year, to deliberate on key issues affecting the economy.

This came just as the National Bureau of Statistics is expected to release the Gross Domestic Product growth figures for the third quarter, on Monday (today)

During the once-in-two-months MPC meeting, held last in September, policymakers will seek to find solutions to challenges confronting the economy.

According to economic analysts, issues that will top the agenda are the fragile growth in the economy, rising non-performing loans and illiquidity in the banking sector, among others.

The MPC had in September retained the Monetary Policy Rate (the benchmark interest rate) at 14.0 per cent; Cash Reserve Ratio at 22.5 per cent; and Liquidity Ration at 30.0 per cent with asymmetric corridor at 200 and -500 basis.

The MPC had kept the rate in the same level since mid 2016.

Economic and financial analysts told our correspondent on Sunday that the MPC might retain the MPC, CRR and LR at the same rate, explaining that the policymakers might not be willing to tweak the monetary policy stance until next year.

The Chief Executive Officer, Economics Associates, Dr. Ayo Teriba, said, “They are approaching the last meeting of the year with some mild positive improvements in the economy. We have exited recession, inflation is coming down, and the exchange rate is stabilising. The question we may want to ask them is whether they have the intention to commence monetary policy easing. If not, do they have the plan to do that in the near future?

“I don’t think they may want to distort the fragile stability in the foreign exchange market. Maybe in their first or second meeting next year, they may want to do that.”

The Chief Executive Officer, Financial Derivatives Company Limited, Mr. Bismarck Rewane, said the general consensus was that the MPC would keep the key economic rates unchanged.

He, however, said policymakers could not afford to wait for a very long time, stressing the need for prompt actions to stimulate growth.

Rewane said, “The general opinion is that no policy action will be taken until January. The CBN is waiting for things to happen before it takes action. We should not be waiting for things to happen. I am not sure we have much time to keep waiting.”

The Chief Executive Officer, Cowry Asset Management Limited, Mr. Johnson Chukwu, said the MPC might need to reduce the CRR by 50 basis points, and the LR by 25 basis points in order to release more funds into the economy for growth.

The CBN Governor, Mr. Godwin Emefiele, had during the Bankers Night two weeks ago said the economy was recording some improvements and that the central bank might change its monetary policy stance from tightening to easing next year if the numbers kept improving.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Economy

Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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Gas-Pipeline

The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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Economy

IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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Economy

South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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