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Nigeria’s E-commerce Market Value to Hit N15.45tn in 10 Years

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  • Nigeria’s E-commerce Market Value to Hit N15.45tn in 10 Years

Currently worth around $13billion (about N4.01trillion), experts in the Nigerian financial service sector have estimated that Nigeria’s e-commerce market value could rise to $50billion (N15.45trillion) over the next decade.

A recent report by London based Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), identified industry giants, such as Jumia, Konga and Jiji, as leading the African charge to boost the continent’s growth of online, technology based retail business.

The report, which highlighted countries and metro regions in Africa with the biggest potential for e-commerce growth, as well as the trends and developments in the market, also noted that Nigeria’s three main online retailers; Jumia, Jiji and Konga, serve a mass-market clientele.

The EIU report valued Jumia (a leading online retail platform) at $1billion; the company operates in 10 other African countries.

Analysts at FBN quest believe the growing appetite for mobile data usage as well as increased network coverage has increased the potential of Nigeria’s e-commerce market.

“Based on data from the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC), mobile network coverage is currently estimated at 77per cent on the basis of 185million as the country’s population. However, internet data penetration via GSM is lower, at 50per cent. The potential impact of a thriving e-commerce market is improved trade activity as it provides a cost-effective method of connecting producers and merchants directly to customers, “the analysts stated.

However, the analysts pointed out that the e-commerce industry has also witnessed reduced patronage due to increased pressure on household pockets in the current downturn.

They added: “We expect a token return to positive territory for GDP as a whole this year. Our GDP growth projection for 2017 is 1.6 per cent year-on-year (y/y). Nevertheless, for e-commerce to attain its full potential, infrastructural issues as well as e-fraud challenges need to be tackled.”

The analysts also revealed that Konga now leads the industry following its expanded operations by launching a groceries segment.

“Konga, its major competitor, has expanded operations by launching a groceries segment. This is similar to models established in the UK such as Sainsbury’s and Tesco. However, logistics challenges across the country could threaten the shopping experience as delivery of products may be delayed.”

According to Konga, the e-company has a customer pool of 750,000. However, there are only 200,000 active customers. The number of active customers fluctuates with seasonalities. We note that the rural population accounts for only 10% of its total active customers. This could be directly correlated to low internet penetration in rural areas as well as modest income levels, “they added.

The EIU had in its report pointed out that Nigeria’s e-commerce giants have penetrated Nigeria’s inner cities and rural areas, serving people effectively.

For instance, it noted that Jumia is able to deliver to less accessible places, where sourcing goods from shops or stalls is not as straightforward.

The EIU, however, noted that the rising affluence is not causing Africans, especially Nigerians, to abandon traditional shopping methods entirely, but it is helping an increasingly inspirational consumer base to broaden its tastes.

E-commerce, it noted, has given a significant proportion of Africans access to brand names not always readily available via informal avenues of retail.

The report also confirmed that the journey of e-commerce has had an overwhelming impact on business transactions in Nigeria and influenced the economy greatly.

Recently, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) predicted that the e-commerce sector is expected to contribute about 10 per cent, of a projected N10trillion, to the nation’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 2018.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Economy

Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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Economy

IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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