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Tackling Nigeria’s Unemployment Crisis

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Unemployment
  • Tackling Nigeria’s Unemployment Crisis

The increasing rate of unemployment continues to be a source of concern for the country. The effect of the high level of joblessness has been seen in the upsurge in crime and other social vices, such as youth restiveness in almost every part of Nigeria.

Statistics

The unemployment report recently released by the National Bureau of Statistics shows that no fewer than 5.5 million Nigerians became unemployed in the two years of the President Muhammadu Buhari administration. The unemployment rate rose to 14.2 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2016, from 13.9 per cent in the preceding quarter. Besides, a recent nationwide survey conducted by BudgIT showed that Kogi, Benue, Bayelsa, Abia, Ondo, Oyo, Ekiti and 14 other states owed their workers and retirees salaries and pensions ranging from one to 36 months.

According to the latest report released by the NBS, the unemployment rate is 4.2 per cent higher than the rate recorded in the fourth quarter of 2015. Consequently, 61.6 per cent of Nigerians in the labour force (not the entire population), aged between 15 and 24, were either unemployed or underemployed in Q4 2016, compared to 59.9 per cent in Q3, 58.3 per cent in Q2, 56.1 per cent in Q1, and 53.5 per cent in Q4 2015.

The statistical agency also said the population of the unemployed rose from 11.19 million at the end of the third quarter of 2016 to 11.55 million in the fourth quarter of 2016.

Concern

The country’s rising unemployment rate, especially among the youth, is now a major source of worry for all stakeholders. The World Economic Forum and the Lagos Business School say the country sits on a “time bomb”.

The Nigeria Economic Transformation Map co-curated by the Lagos Business School show that the high rate of unemployment “can be attributed to many factors such as high dependence on oil revenue and limited diversification of the economy.”

Similarly, the Brookings Institution, a non-profit public policy organisation based in Washington, in a report titled, “Youth Unemployment in Nigeria: A Situation Analysis,” noted that several factors might be blamed for the prevalence of youth unemployment in Nigeria. According to the report, the country has a high population growth rate—3.5 per cent per annum—which accompanies its already large national population.

In addition, deficient school curricula and poor teacher training were listed as contributors to the failure of educational institutions to provide their students the appropriate skills to make them employable.

The Brookings Institution’s report said, “Since schools in rural areas are generally more deficient in infrastructure, teaching facilities and teacher quality than schools in urban areas, this may help account for the high growth in rural unemployed youth.

“In fact, some experts suggest that the major jump in rural youth unemployment could be due to the mass failure in national examinations conducted among final-year secondary school students in 2010, which made many of them unemployable in 2011.”

Entrepreneurship Development

To address the worrisome employment situation, experts have stressed the need for youth empowerment and entrepreneurship development as Nigeria’s best option for wealth creation and economic growth.

Focus on SMEs

Executive Director, North, Fidelity Bank, Mr. Mohammed Balarabe, said supporting Small and Medium-sized Enterprises would bring about economic empowerment and employment opportunities for a lot of youths in the country. Balarabe said the continuing slide in the price of crude oil was a clear warning that it was no longer business as usual for Nigeria.

“It is against this background that I believe that fundamentally the Nigerian economy is going to change and for businesses to succeed going forward, they have to be ingenious and they have to come up with new ideas as to how to engage the environment to be able to success,” he said. “With the drop in crude oil, demand for consumer goods would change, government spending pattern and even that of corporates would also change. Thus, SMEs must change the way they seek to do business.”

Managing Director, Borodo and Co. Nigeria Limited, Alhaji Bashir Borodo, urged governments in the country to initiate friendly policies that will encourage SMEs. He called for development of the transport system across the country to ease the means of doing business.

“We need the support of our government. That is the only way we can move. One key issue for us is railway. Without good railways, production would be very expensive. So, our government must support SMEs,” Borodo, a former president of Manufacturers Association of Nigeria, stressed.

Chief Executive Officer of Fidelity Bank, Mr. Nnamdi Okonkwo, described SMEs as critical agents for economic development in any nation. Okonkwo said Fidelity Bank had designed structures that would support SMEs in the country and make them profitable.

According to him, “SMEs account for about 80 per cent of businesses. There are over 40,000 micro, small and medium scale enterprises employing over 60 million people in Nigeria.

“That was why as a bank, in the past three years, we have continued to increase our focus on SMEs. We have a special unit that focuses on the challenges faced by SMEs in the country and we support them by a multi-faceted approach. One of them is capacity building.”

Fidelity Bank’s Entrepreneurship Drive

In line with its drive to promote entrepreneurship, Fidelity Bank Plc has been empowering Nigeria youths with skills needed to thrive in today’s highly competitive business landscape. The bank recently entered into a partnership with Empretec Nigerian Foundation to organise a graduate entrepreneurship programme in Calabar, the Cross Rivers State capital, where over 200 youths were trained in the theoretical and practical aspects of entrepreneurship.

Wife of former Governor of Cross River State and founder of Empretec, Onari Duke, and the state Commissioner for Commerce and Industry, Peter Egba, inaugurated the programme.

A flagship capacity-building programme of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), Empretec is dedicated to promoting entrepreneurship and micro, small and medium scale enterprises (MSMEs) with a view to facilitating sustainable development and inclusive growth.

The bank has also collaborated with Gazelle (Vocational Centre) Academy to introduce a national youth empowerment initiative. The empowerment programme, which is part of the bank’s Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) initiatives, is primarily targeted at creating a new breed of entrepreneurs among Nigeria’s youth population.

Dubbed the Fidelity Youth Empowerment Academy (YEA), the programme was designed strategically to drive awareness as well as empower undergraduates with requisite entrepreneurial skills that will not only help them establish sustainable businesses but also eventually turn them into bg employers of labour.

In a similar vein, last month, the bank, in collaboration with the Federal Polytechnic, Oko, venture, concluded an entrepreneurship training programme for 400 students in Anambra State. Organised under the YEA stream 3, the week-long training programme was aimed at equipping the students with skills and capabilities needed to start businesses even while in school.

Some of the skill areas participants were trained in included fashion, accessories, cocktail, tailoring, makeup, shoe making, and digital marketing.

Speaking at the closing ceremony of the third edition of the Fidelity Youth Empowerment Academy held in Anambra State, Okonkwo noted that the initiative sought to empower the polytechnic community by creating thriving business owners among students.

He explained that this was in furtherance of the financial institution’s quest to not only tackle the country’s unemployment challenges but also improve the wellbeing of communities where it does business.

In the same vein, the founder, Gazelle Academy, Muna Onuzo, noted that entrepreneurship remained the most viable solution to the current economic challenges. He encouraged the students to use the platform to gain financial freedom and self-reliance.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

Economy

Goldman Sachs Urges Bold Rate Hike as Naira Weakens and Inflation Soars

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Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN)

As Nigeria grapples with soaring inflation and a faltering naira, Goldman Sachs is calling for a substantial increase in interest rates to stabilize the economy and restore investor confidence.

The global investment bank’s recommendation comes ahead of the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) key monetary policy decision, set to be announced on Tuesday.

Goldman Sachs economists, including Andrew Matheny, argue that incremental rate adjustments will not be sufficient to address the country’s deepening economic challenges.

“Another 50 or 100 basis points is certainly not going to move the needle in the eyes of an investor,” Matheny stated. “Nigeria needs a bold, decisive move to curb inflation and regain investor trust.”

The CBN, under the leadership of Governor Olayemi Cardoso, is anticipated to raise interest rates by 75 basis points to 27% in its upcoming meeting.

This would mark a continuation of the aggressive tightening campaign that began in May 2022, which has seen rates increase by 14.75 percentage points.

Despite this, inflation has remained stubbornly high, highlighting the need for more substantial measures.

The current economic landscape is marked by severe challenges. The naira’s depreciation has led to higher import costs, fueling inflation and eroding consumer purchasing power.

The CBN has attempted to ease the currency’s scarcity by selling dollars to local foreign exchange bureaus, but these efforts have yet to stabilize the naira significantly.

“Developments since the last meeting have definitely been hawkish,” noted Matheny. “The naira has weakened further, exacerbating inflationary pressures. The CBN’s policy needs to reflect this reality more aggressively.”

In response to the persistent inflation and naira weakness, analysts are urging the central bank to implement a more coherent strategy to manage the currency and inflation.

James Marshall of Promeritum Investment Management LLP suggested that the CBN should actively participate in the foreign exchange market to mitigate the naira’s volatility and restore market confidence.

“The central bank needs to be a more consistent and active participant in the forex market,” Marshall said. “A clear strategy to address the naira’s weakness is crucial for stabilizing the economy.”

The CBN’s decision will come as the country faces a critical period. With inflation expected to slow due to favorable comparisons with the previous year and new measures to reduce food costs, including a temporary import duty waiver on wheat and corn, there is hope that the economic situation may improve.

However, analysts anticipate that the CBN will need to implement one final rate hike to solidify inflation’s slowdown and restore positive real rates.

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Economy

Currency Drop Spurs Discount Dilemma in Cairo’s Markets

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Egyptian pound

Under Cairo’s scorching sun, the bustling streets reveal an unexpected twist in dramatic price drops on big-ticket items like cars and appliances.

Following March’s significant currency devaluation, prices for these goods have plunged, leaving consumers hesitant to make purchases amid hopes for even better deals.

Mohamed Yassin, a furniture store vendor, said “People just inquire about prices. They’re afraid to buy in case prices drop further.” This cautious consumer behavior is posing challenges for Egypt’s consumer-driven economy.

In March, Egyptian authorities devalued the pound by nearly 40% to stabilize an economy teetering on the edge. While such moves often lead to inflation spikes, Egypt’s case has been unusual.

Unlike other nations like Nigeria or Argentina, where costs soared post-devaluation, Egypt is witnessing falling prices for high-value items.

Previously inflated prices were driven by a black market in foreign currency, where importers secured dollars at exorbitant rates, passing costs onto consumers.

Now, with the pound stabilizing and foreign currency more accessible, retailers are struggling to sell inventory at pre-devaluation prices.

Despite price reductions, the overall consumer market remains sluggish. The automotive sector has seen a near 75% drop in sales compared to pre-crisis levels.

Major brands like Hyundai and Volkswagen have slashed prices by about a quarter, yet buyers remain cautious.

The economic strain is not limited to luxury items. Everyday expenses continue to rise, albeit more slowly, with anticipated hikes in electricity and fuel prices adding to the pressure.

Experts highlight a period of adjustment as both consumers and traders navigate the volatile exchange-rate environment. Mohamed Abu Basha, head of research at EFG Hermes, explains, “The market is taking time to absorb recent fluctuations.”

Meanwhile, businesses face declining sales, impacting their ability to manage operating costs. Yassin’s store has offered discounts of up to 50% yet remains quiet. “We’ve tried everything, but everyone is waiting,” he laments.

The devaluation has spurred a shift in economic dynamics. Inflation has eased, but the pace varies across sectors. Clothing and transportation costs are up, while food prices fluctuate.

With the phasing out of fuel subsidies and potential electricity price increases, Egyptians are bracing for further financial strain. The recent 300% rise in subsidized bread prices adds another layer of concern.

The situation underscores the balancing act between maintaining consumer confidence and attracting foreign investment.

Economists suggest potential stimulus measures, such as lowering interest rates or increasing public spending, to boost demand.

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Economy

MPC Meeting on July 22-23 to Tackle Inflation as Rates Set to Rise Again

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Interbank rate

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is set to convene on July 22-23, 2024, amid soaring inflation and economic challenges in Nigeria.

Led by Olayemi Cardoso, the committee has already increased interest rates three times this year, raising them by 750 basis points to 26.25 percent.

Nigeria’s annual inflation rate climbed to 34.19 percent in June, driven by rising food prices. Despite these pressures, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) projects that inflation will moderate to around 21.40 percent by year-end.

Market analysts expect a further rate hike as the committee seeks to rein in inflation. Nabila Mohammed from Chapel Hill Denham anticipates a 50–75 basis point increase.

Similarly, Coronation Research forecasts a potential rise of 50 to 100 basis points, given the recent uptick in inflation.

The food inflation rate reached 40.87 percent in June, exacerbated by security issues in key agricultural regions.

Essential commodities such as millet, garri, and yams have seen significant price hikes, impacting household budgets and savings.

As the MPC meets, the National Bureau of Statistics is set to release data on selected food prices for June, providing further insights into the inflationary trends affecting Nigerians.

The upcoming MPC meeting will be crucial in determining the trajectory of Nigeria’s monetary policy as the government grapples with economic instability.

The focus remains on balancing inflation control with economic growth to ensure stability in Africa’s largest economy.

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