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Power Sector Requires $7.5 Billion to be Viable

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  • Power Sector Requires $7.5 Billion to be Viable

The Federal Government has said about $7.5 billion funding is needed for the power sector over the next five years, starting from this year till 2021, to make it viable. If achieved, the funding, which is $1.5 billion per year, would enable diversification of the economy and is estimated to drive growth by at least $29.3 billion annually.

The government, which revealed this in the Draft Final copy of the Power Sector Recovery Programme (PSRP) obtained, noted that the sector’s viability would, however, be depended on taking the steps outlined in the plan.

Stating that the power market recorded shortfall of about N473 billion in 2015 and 2016 with tariff shortfall at approximately N458 billion, the 55-page document noted that, at the current tariff level, even with zero collection losses, the sector shortfall was inevitable. “It is therefore paramount that government provides a subsidy (or similar mechanism) to offset the expected shortfall,” the programme suggested, pointing out that, “the longer it takes to increase tariffs, the larger the market shortfall grows.”

According to the document, “ The Tariff Shortfall is due to changes in macro-economic variables, volumetric shock in energy supplied and the costs of interest on non-financed shortfalls via retail tariff sculpting. This has resulted in a shortfall of N458 billion due to Discos from Customers. The market shortfall is due to non-payment of actual MO (market operator) and NBETs invoices by the Discos. This has created a shortfall of N473 billion due from Discos to the market.”

Acknowledging that, “The sector is in transition from government to private-sector owned and operated,” the PSRP stated that, it was therefore, “facing liquidity challenges arising from consumers’ orientation to pay only for what they use, transitional learning, regulatory compliance, forex rate changes and vandalism of power assets that affect production stability and breeds consumer resistance to payments.”

As part of government’s effort to gather financial support for the power sector, the Federal Executive Council, earlier in the year, approved discussions with the World Bank with a view to securing $2.5 billion for the sector. Consequently, the Bretton Woods institution expressed willingness to assist with the financing and two of its arms- International Finance Corporation(IFC) and Multilateral Investment Guaranty Agency (MIGA)- has indicated interest to provide an additional US$2.7 billion for private investment.

Giving a breakdown of the $2.7 billion World Bank support, the PSRP revealed that, $1 billion is a performance-based loan for financial support to eliminate cash flow deficits; $500 million for loss reduction in distribution including metering and $364 million would be used as a support to Transmission Company of Nigeria to finance its priority projects.

While $350 million is a potential funding for rural electrification initiatives, $305 would serve as guarantees.

For the IFC investment, $1.3 billion is being expected as a direct investment and mobilisation for power sector for additional 3.5 gigawatts (GW) of power generation as well as investments in distribution companies. The remaining $1.4 billion to be provided by MIGA is planned as guarantees for both gas and solar IPPs.

In its introductory note, the PSRP document stated that the recovery programme was developed in view of the urgent need to address the dire challenges within the Nigerian Electricity Supply Industry (NESI).

In stating the challenge, the document lamented that, from being an investment destination sought after in 2013 – both at home and abroad, the NESI had fallen out of favour.

“With the recent meetings in Abuja of the DFI/MDBs over issues concerning the currency redenomination of the Put-Call Option Agreement (PCOA), there now remains only 2 dependable sources of financing for the NESI: NGN – The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) USD – The World Bank Group (WBG).

“A bold turnaround plan is now required to utilise current assets and resources optimally, and to restore investor confidence in the sector, required to deliver the planned sector reforms,” it stated.

As such, the key objectives of the PSRP are: “To improve power supply reliability to meet growing demand; to strengthen the sector’s institutional framework and increase transparency; to implement clear policies that promote and encourage investor confidence in the sector; and to establish a contract-based electricity market.”

To this end, the document highlighted the key deliverables as: “Dimensioning accumulated deficit (2015, 2016) and future shortfall (2017-2021); Developing mechanisms for settlement of accumulated debt; Developing interventions to minimise subsidy going forward; Restoring sector financial viability; Ensuring Disco loss reductions; Identifying funding sources; Addressing infrastructure gaps; Addressing gas pipeline vandalism; Enabling electricity market business continuity; Developing a communications strategy for stakeholders.”

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Economy

Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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Economy

IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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