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OPEC Ministers Say the Market Might Need More Oil Cuts

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  • OPEC Ministers Say the Market Might Need More Oil Cuts

OPEC and other major crude-producing nations may need to extend output cuts into the second half of the year to re-balance the market, oil ministers for Iran and fellow group member Qatar said.

Global oil supplies have decreased as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and producers outside the group comply with a six-month deal to curb output that took effect on Jan. 1, Qatar’s Energy Minister Mohammed Al Sada said Wednesday at a news briefing in Doha. “It’s too early to make a judgement,” he said, adding that markets may re-balance in the third quarter.

“We kept it open to reconsider the rollover, and rollover is an option if needed,” Al Sada told Bloomberg TV in Qatar’s capital.

In principle, OPEC will have to cut output in the second half, Iran’s Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh said, according to the Fars news agency. The issue needs further study before the group can make a decision, Zanganeh said, after meeting in Tehran with his counterpart from Venezuela, also an OPEC member.

The organization agreed in November to impose quotas on its members for the first time in eight years, in an effort to stem a supply glut that had depressed crude prices. OPEC enlisted support from 11 other producers on Dec. 10 in an historic deal to remove as much as 1.8 million barrels of oil a day from the market. OPEC expects to decide whether to extend the cuts at its bi-annual meeting in Vienna in May.

Benchmark Brent crude fell as much as 61 cents in London on Wednesday and was trading at $54.86 a barrel at 1:06 p.m. local time, on course for a third daily decline after industry data showed U.S. stockpiles surged.

Most OPEC members are happy with a crude price of about $60 a barrel, Zanganeh said, according to the Tasnim news agency. OPEC’s compliance with the accord on output has been very good, and non-OPEC producers have begun cutting production and pledged to reach their targets quickly, the Oil Ministry’s Shana news service reported him as saying. Iran is the third-biggest producer in OPEC, behind Saudi Arabia and Iraq, while Qatar ranks 11th.

A committee in charge of monitoring compliance with the deal is due to release its first report on Feb. 17, disclosing January production levels for participating countries, Qatar’s Al Sada said. The five-member committee, led by Kuwait, will use as many as six sources of data to measure output, he said.

Last month, Saudi Arabia’s Energy and Industry Minister Khalid Al-Falih said an extension of the agreement probably wouldn’t be necessary, given high levels of compliance and expectations of strong demand. Nonetheless, “all players have indicated their willingness to extend, if necessary,” he said on Jan. 16 in Abu Dhabi.

The oil market would be re-balanced when global inventories, currently near record highs, approached their five-year average level, Al Sada said. The third quarter of this year would be a “good estimate” for when this is likely to happen, he said.

Investment in the oil industry has tumbled during the past three years, and a failure to reverse this trend could hurt future supply and cause a shortage three years from now, Al Sada said. Current oil demand is healthy and will increase by 1.1 million to 1.2 million barrels a day in 2017, he said.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Crude Oil

NNPC and Newcross Set to Boost Awoba Unit Field Production to 12,000 bpd

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NNPC - Investors King

NNPC and Newcross Exploration and Production Ltd are working together to increase production at the Awoba Unit Field to 12,000 barrels per day (bpd) within the next 30 days.

This initiative, aimed at optimizing hydrocarbon asset production, follows the recent restart of operations at the Awoba field, which commenced this month after a hiatus.

The field, located in the mangrove swamp south of Port Harcourt, Rivers State, ceased production in 2021 due to logistical challenges and crude oil theft.

The joint venture between NNPC and Newcross is poised to bolster national revenue and meet OPEC production quotas, contributing significantly to Nigeria’s energy sector.

Mele Kyari, NNPC’s Group Chief Executive Officer, attributes this achievement to a conducive operating environment fostered by the administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

The endeavor underscores a collective effort involving stakeholders from various sectors, including staff, operators, host communities, and security agencies, aimed at revitalizing Nigeria’s oil and gas sector.

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Gold

Gold Prices Slide Below $2,300 as Investors Digest Fed’s Rate Outlook

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Amidst a backdrop of global economic shifts and geopolitical recalibration, gold prices dipped below the $2,300 price level.

The decline comes as investors carefully analyse signals from the Federal Reserve regarding its future interest rate policies.

After reaching record highs earlier this month, gold suffered its most daily decline in nearly two years, shedding 2.7% on Monday.

The recent retreat reflects a multifaceted landscape where concerns over escalating tensions in the Middle East have eased, coupled with indications that the Federal Reserve may maintain higher interest rates for a prolonged period.

Richard Grace, a senior currency analyst and international economist at ITC Markets, noted that tactical short-selling likely contributed to the decline, especially given the rapid surge in gold prices witnessed recently.

Despite this setback, bullion remains up approximately 15% since mid-February, supported by ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, central bank purchases, and robust demand from Chinese consumers.

The shift in focus among investors now turns toward forthcoming US economic data, including key inflation metrics favored by the Federal Reserve.

These data points are anticipated to provide further insights into the central bank’s monetary policy trajectory.

Over recent weeks, policymakers have adopted a more hawkish tone in response to consistently strong inflation reports, leading market participants to adjust their expectations regarding the timing of future interest rate adjustments.

As markets recalibrate their expectations for monetary policy, the prospect of a higher-for-longer interest rate environment poses challenges for gold, which traditionally does not offer interest-bearing returns.

Spot gold prices dropped by 1.2% to $2,298.67 an ounce, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index remaining relatively stable. Silver, palladium, and platinum also experienced declines following gold’s retreat.

The ongoing interplay between economic indicators, geopolitical developments, and central bank policies continues to shape the trajectory of precious metal markets.

While gold faces near-term headwinds, its status as a safe-haven asset and store of value ensures that it remains a focal point for investors navigating uncertain global dynamics.

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Crude Oil

Oil Prices Hold Firm Despite Middle East Tensions

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Despite ongoing tensions in the Middle East, oil prices remained resilient, holding steady above key levels on Tuesday.

Brent crude oil traded above $87 a barrel after a slight dip of 0.3% on the previous trading day, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) hovered around $82 a barrel.

The stability in oil prices comes amidst a backdrop of positive sentiment across global markets, with signs of strength in various sectors countering concerns about geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

One of the factors supporting oil prices is the weakening of the US dollar, which makes commodities priced in the currency more attractive to international investors.

Concurrently, equities experienced gains, contributing to the overall positive market sentiment.

However, geopolitical risks persist as Israel intensifies efforts to eliminate what it claims is the last stronghold of Hamas in Gaza and secure the release of remaining hostages.

These actions are expected to keep tensions elevated in the region, adding uncertainty to oil markets.

Despite the geopolitical tensions, options markets have shown a more optimistic outlook in recent days regarding the potential for a spike in oil prices. This suggests that market participants are cautiously optimistic about the resolution of conflicts in the region.

Despite the lingering risks, oil prices have remained below the $90 per barrel price level, a level that many analysts consider significant, particularly as the summer months approach, typically known as the peak demand season for oil.

While prices have experienced some volatility, they have yet to reach the $90 threshold, prompting expectations of further increases later in the year.

Jeff Currie, chief strategy officer of energy pathways at Carlyle Group, expressed confidence in the potential for oil prices to surpass $100 per barrel, citing tight market conditions indicated by timespreads.

However, he also noted the importance of monitoring OPEC’s response to rising prices, as the organization may adjust production levels to stabilize the market.

Overall, while geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to pose risks to oil markets, the resilience of oil prices amidst these challenges underscores the complex interplay of global factors influencing commodity markets.

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