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Australia’s Unemployment Falls to 5.6% Despite Job Losses

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Australia's unemployment
  • Australia’s Unemployment Falls to 5.6% Despite Job Losses

Australia’s unemployment rate has fallen to 5.6 per cent, despite the loss of 9,800 jobs, as the proportion of people looking for work tumbled.

However, the exact opposite occurred, with the loss of 9,800 jobs but unemployment falling to 5.6 per cent from an upwardly revised August number of 5.7 per cent.

The fall in unemployment was driven entirely by a drop in the participation rate – the proportion of people in work or actively looking for it – from 64.7 to 64.5 per cent.

Perhaps more concerning than the surprise slump in the proportion of people in the workforce was the composition of the estimated 9,800 jobs lost.

The Bureau of Statistics estimates that 53,000 full-time positions disappeared in September, only partly replaced by 43,200 new part-time jobs.

This continues a longer-term trend that appears to have accelerated over the past year, observed the program manager of the bureau’s Labour and Income Branch, Jacqui Jones.

Shift to Part-Time Work ‘Not a Good Outcome’ For Economy

The shift to part-time job creation and full-time work weakness over recent times was noted by JP Morgan analyst Tom Kennedy in a research note earlier this week.

He said the latest numbers fit with this trend and, while unlikely to force an interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank in the short term, would be raising concern at the central bank.

“You’re not going to see too much volatility in the jobless rate, but you should look at things like underemployment and wage growth,” he told Reuters.

“They are likely to remain elevated in the case of the former and very low in the case of wages. That’s not a good outcome.”

Yesterday, ratings agency Moody’s warned that underemployment was a major cause of rising mortgage repayment arrears, which are at a three-year high nationally and record levels in Western Australia, Tasmania and the Northern Territory.

‘The Numbers Are Rubbish’

However, other analysts doubt the veracity of the numbers, given the problems the ABS has had with its employment data over the past couple of years.

“The numbers are rubbish. No one is going to believe these numbers,” TD Securities head of Asia-Pacific research Annette Beacher told Reuters.

“The massive shifts in full-time/part-time is very easy to discount. It’s the sort of irregularities seen in recent months.”

The bureau’s employment figures are based on a survey of 26,000 households each month, a number which has been reduced due to budget pressures.

The sample is gradually rotated to ensure new households are interviewed and that the survey closely reflects the population’s make-up.

Some economists were warning of volatility in the September data because it was a rotation month, however most of those expected it to skew the number upwards.

“The ABS stated that it has altered the headline figure because the incoming rotation sample for Queensland was ‘considerably different to the rest of the Queensland sample’,” observed Paul Dales from Capital Economics.

“Somewhat unhelpfully, when we phoned the ABS it wouldn’t tell us in which direction it has tweaked the data.

“But, since the state breakdown shows that employment in Queensland fell by 4,100, we’re guessing that the actions of the ABS meant that the fall in employment was smaller than would otherwise have been the case.”

Jacqui Jones from the ABS said the move ensured the quality of the overall data.

“This reduced the influence of 580 households of the 4,600 Queensland sample; or around 2 per cent of the total Labour Force sample of 26,000 households,” she responded in a statement.

“The ABS will review this one Queensland rotation group when October data are collected and analysed next month.”

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Crude Oil

Brent Crude Hits $88.42, WTI Climbs to $83.36 on Dollar Index Dip

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Brent crude oil - Investors King

Oil prices surged as Brent crude oil appreciated to $88.42 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed to $83.36 a barrel.

The uptick in prices comes as the U.S. dollar index dipped to its lowest level in over a week, prompting investors to shift their focus from geopolitical tensions to global economic conditions.

The weakening of the U.S. dollar, a key factor influencing oil prices, provided a boost to dollar-denominated commodities like oil. As the dollar index fell, demand for oil from investors holding other currencies increased, leading to the rise in prices.

Investors also found support in euro zone data indicating a robust expansion in business activity, with April witnessing the fastest pace of growth in nearly a year.

Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, noted that the market had been under pressure due to sluggish growth in the euro zone, making any signs of improvement supportive for oil prices.

Market participants are increasingly looking beyond geopolitical tensions and focusing on economic indicators and supply-and-demand dynamics.

Despite initial concerns regarding tensions between Israel and Iran and uncertainties surrounding China’s economic performance, the market sentiment remained optimistic, buoyed by expectations of steady oil demand.

Analysts anticipate the release of key economic data later in the week, including U.S. first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) figures and March’s personal consumption expenditures, which serve as the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge.

These data points are expected to provide further insights into the health of the economy and potentially impact oil prices.

Also, anticipation builds around the release of U.S. crude oil inventory data by the Energy Information Administration, scheduled for Wednesday.

Preliminary reports suggest an increase in crude oil inventories alongside a decrease in refined product stockpiles, reflecting ongoing dynamics in the oil market.

As oil prices continue their upward trajectory, investors remain vigilant, monitoring economic indicators and geopolitical developments for further cues on the future direction of the market.

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Crude Oil

NNPC and Newcross Set to Boost Awoba Unit Field Production to 12,000 bpd

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NNPC - Investors King

NNPC and Newcross Exploration and Production Ltd are working together to increase production at the Awoba Unit Field to 12,000 barrels per day (bpd) within the next 30 days.

This initiative, aimed at optimizing hydrocarbon asset production, follows the recent restart of operations at the Awoba field, which commenced this month after a hiatus.

The field, located in the mangrove swamp south of Port Harcourt, Rivers State, ceased production in 2021 due to logistical challenges and crude oil theft.

The joint venture between NNPC and Newcross is poised to bolster national revenue and meet OPEC production quotas, contributing significantly to Nigeria’s energy sector.

Mele Kyari, NNPC’s Group Chief Executive Officer, attributes this achievement to a conducive operating environment fostered by the administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

The endeavor underscores a collective effort involving stakeholders from various sectors, including staff, operators, host communities, and security agencies, aimed at revitalizing Nigeria’s oil and gas sector.

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Gold

Gold Prices Slide Below $2,300 as Investors Digest Fed’s Rate Outlook

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gold bars - Investors King

Amidst a backdrop of global economic shifts and geopolitical recalibration, gold prices dipped below the $2,300 price level.

The decline comes as investors carefully analyse signals from the Federal Reserve regarding its future interest rate policies.

After reaching record highs earlier this month, gold suffered its most daily decline in nearly two years, shedding 2.7% on Monday.

The recent retreat reflects a multifaceted landscape where concerns over escalating tensions in the Middle East have eased, coupled with indications that the Federal Reserve may maintain higher interest rates for a prolonged period.

Richard Grace, a senior currency analyst and international economist at ITC Markets, noted that tactical short-selling likely contributed to the decline, especially given the rapid surge in gold prices witnessed recently.

Despite this setback, bullion remains up approximately 15% since mid-February, supported by ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, central bank purchases, and robust demand from Chinese consumers.

The shift in focus among investors now turns toward forthcoming US economic data, including key inflation metrics favored by the Federal Reserve.

These data points are anticipated to provide further insights into the central bank’s monetary policy trajectory.

Over recent weeks, policymakers have adopted a more hawkish tone in response to consistently strong inflation reports, leading market participants to adjust their expectations regarding the timing of future interest rate adjustments.

As markets recalibrate their expectations for monetary policy, the prospect of a higher-for-longer interest rate environment poses challenges for gold, which traditionally does not offer interest-bearing returns.

Spot gold prices dropped by 1.2% to $2,298.67 an ounce, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index remaining relatively stable. Silver, palladium, and platinum also experienced declines following gold’s retreat.

The ongoing interplay between economic indicators, geopolitical developments, and central bank policies continues to shape the trajectory of precious metal markets.

While gold faces near-term headwinds, its status as a safe-haven asset and store of value ensures that it remains a focal point for investors navigating uncertain global dynamics.

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