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African Economies Gain from Agriculture Investment

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AGRA

African countries that took early action in the past decade to invest in agriculture have reaped the rewards, enjoying higher economic growth and a bigger drop in malnutrition, a major farming development organisation said yesterday.

The report by the Alliance for Green Revolution in Africa (AGRA), according to Reuters, showed that after decades of stagnation, much of Africa has enjoyed sustained agricultural productivity growth since 2005. That has helped push down poverty rates in places like Ghana, Rwanda, Ethiopia and Burkina Faso, it added.

Countries that adopted the policies promoted by the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP) not long after it was created by African Union governments in 2003 saw productivity on existing farmlands rise by 5.9 to 6.7 per cent per year, the report said.

That helped spur a 4.3 per cent average annual increase in gross domestic product (GDP).

By contrast, states that sat on the sidelines saw farm productivity rise by less than three per cent a year and GDP by only 2.2 per cent, said the Africa Agriculture Status Report 2016.

“The last ten years have made a strong case for agriculture as the surest path to producing sustainable economic growth that is felt in all sectors of society – and particularly among poor Africans,” AGRA President Agnes Kalibata said in a statement.

Growth in agriculture is more effective at cutting poverty than growth in other sectors in sub-Saharan Africa because farming is a main source of income for more than 60 per cent of the labour force, and will continue to be a major employer in most countries for a decade or more, the report noted.

On malnutrition, countries that were quick to put the CAADP into practice experienced an annual average decline of 3.1 per cent, while those that did not sign up saw a drop of only 1.2 per cent.

The countries adopting the programme early – between 2007 and 2009 – were Benin, Burundi, Cape Verde, Ethiopia, Gambia, Ghana, Liberia, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, Rwanda, Sierra Leone and Togo, according to the report.

“Africa is no longer in the dark. It has done a lot towards agricultural transformation in the past decade,” AGRA’s head of monitoring and evaluation and a lead author of the report, David Ameyaw said.

“But there is a need to double the effort by 2030 for a meaningful agricultural transformation,” he told the Thomson Reuters Foundation.

The report, released to inform discussions at the African Green Revolution Forum in Nairobi this week, noted that gains were made in early-moving African countries even if their governments did not hit a target set by the CAADP to allocate 10 percent of national budgets to agriculture.

Only 13 African countries have met or surpassed that goal, the report noted. If others followed suit, public funding for agriculture across Africa would rise from $12 billion – the amount allocated in 2014 – to $40 billion, it added.

Agriculture in Africa is still threatened by low productivity due to limited use of inputs like improved seeds and fertilisers, rising water stress, and climate-related disasters such as floods and droughts that are affecting crop, livestock and fish production, according to the report.

A 2014 World Bank study found that around two-thirds of small-scale farmers surveyed in Ethiopia, Malawi, Niger, Nigeria, Tanzania and Uganda did not use chemical fertilisers.

There is a need for such farmers to invest further in irrigation, both studies said, with the World Bank estimating that only 1 to 3 percent of land cultivated by smallholders in sub-Saharan Africa is irrigated.
Ameyaw said further agricultural progress in the region would require political will, the right policies and technology transfer to improve productivity and reduce post-harvest losses.

CEO/Founder Investors King Ltd, a foreign exchange research analyst, contributing author on New York-based Talk Markets and Investing.com, with over a decade experience in the global financial markets.

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Economy

Nigeria’s Inflation Rate Moderates to 17.93 Percent in May

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consumer price index - Investors King

Inflation in Africa’s largest economy, Nigeria, moderated from 18.12 percent year-on-year in April to 17.93 percent year-on-year in May, according to the latest report from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

On a monthly basis, headline inflation grew by 1.01 percent in May. Representing an increase of 0.04 percent when compared to 0.97 percent filed in April.

Core inflation, which excludes the prices of volatile agricultural
produce stood at 13.15 percent in May 2021, up by 0.41 percent when compared with 12.74 percent recorded in April 2021.

On month-on-month basis, the core sub-index increased by 1.24 percent in May 2021. This was up by 0.25 percent when compared with 0.99 percent recorded in April 2021.

The highest increases were recorded in prices of Pharmaceutical products, Garments, Shoes and other footwear, Hairdressing salons and personal grooming establishments, Furniture and furnishing, Carpet and other floor covering, Motor cars, Hospital services, Fuels and lubricants for personal transport equipments, Cleaning, repair and hire of clothing, Other services in respect of personal transport equipments, Gas, Household textile and Non durable household goods.

The average 12-month annual rate of change of the index was 11.50 percent for the twelve-month period ending May 2021; this is 0.25 percent points higher than 11.25 percent recorded in April 2021.

Food index rose by 22.28 percent in the month of May 2021, up by 0.06 percent points from 0.99 percent recorded in April 2021.

The average annual rate of change of the Food sub-index for the twelve-month period ending May 2021 over the previous twelve-month average was 19.18 percent, 0.60 percent points from the average annual rate of change recorded in April 2021 (18.58) percent.

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In Six Years Buhari’s Administration Borrowed $2.02B From China

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Muhammadu Buhari

According to data obtained from the Debt Management Office, Buhari’s administration has borrowed a total of $2.02 billion in loans from China since 2015 till date.

The Statistics obtained from DMO also revealed that Nigeria’s total debt from China as of 30th of June 2015 stood at $1.38 billion.

As of 31st of March 2021, the country’s total debt portfolio with China has surged to $3.40 billion.

According to the DMO, loans from China are concessional loans with interest rates of 2.50 percent per annum, a tenor of 20 years and a grace period (moratorium) of seven years.

The debt office said that the terms of the loans were compliant with the provisions of Section 41 (1a) of the Fiscal Responsibility Act, 2007.

The loans from China are tied to projects. The projects, (eleven in number as of March 31, 2020), include the Nigerian Railway Modernisation Project (Idu-Kaduna section), the Abuja Light Rail Project, Nigerian Four Airport Terminals Expansion Project (Abuja, Kano, Lagos, and Port Harcourt), Nigerian Railway Modernisation Project (Lagos-Ibadan section) and the Rehabilitation and Upgrading of Abuja-Keffi-Makurdi Road Project.

The DMO revealed that the low interest rates on the loans reduced the interest cost to the government while the long tenor enabled the repayment of the principal sum of the loans over many years.

Since the third quarter of 2015, the nation’s total debt service payment made to China stood at $719.61 million as of 31st of March. $332.03 million or 46.15 percent of the total debt service was paid to service the interest on the loans.

In the first quarter of 2021, $102.19 million was used to service debt to China. This is about 11 percent of the total $1.0 billion used to service external debts within the period.

The DMO recently disclosed that Nigeria had more than $5.83 billion foreign loans that had been approved but not yet disbursed as of December 31, 2020.

Out of this amount, $1.25 billion is supposed to come from the Export-Import Bank of China. Apart from multilateral agencies, China has remained the nation’s largest creditor.

There had been fears among Nigerians that the country may forfeit some of the projects in case of loan defaults.

The fear grew when the Minister of Transportation, Rotimi Amaechi, in August 2020, confirmed that the country waived its sovereign immunity to obtain Chinese loans.

The minister, however, added that as long as debts were repaid, there would be no need for China to claim any infrastructure.

“We must learn to pay our debts and we are paying, and once you are paying, nobody will come and take any of your assets,” he had said.

Despite the assurance, fear persists that the Chinese loans contain some obnoxious clauses that could breach the nation’s sovereignty especially as the loan agreements are not available in the public domain.

Amaechi denied knowledge of any clause that hands over a national asset to China in case of any default in an AriseTV interview on Monday.

When asked about the plans of the Federal Government to pay back the loans so as to avoid the Zambian experience where some national assets such as the Kenneth Kaunda International Airport, the Zambia National Broadcasting Corporation and the National Power and Utility Company were reportedly used to settle Zambia’s financial obligations to China, Amaechi said borrowers should meet their obligations.

He said, “When you take loans, you are expected to pay back. Today we are paying back. Under the regime of President Goodluck Jonathan, the loan for Abuja-Kaduna was taken. It was about $500m. Today, we have paid about $150m on that loan.

“Nigeria has never defaulted when it comes to repayment. I do not also expect that we should default on any other loan that we have taken.”

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Despite COVID-19, Global Financial Wealth Soared to Record High of $250T in 2020

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Boston Consulting Group (BCG)- Investors King

Global financial wealth reached an all-time high of $250 trillion in 2020 as household savings rose and markets showed unexpected resilience in the face of the protracted COVID-19 pandemic, according to a new report by Boston Consulting Group (BCG).

The report, titled “Global Wealth 2021: When Clients Take the Lead”, reveals that despite the pandemic’s enduring financial impact, global prosperity and wealth grew significantly throughout the crisis and are likely to continue to expand significantly over the next five years, in line with the emerging economic recovery.

According to the report, North America, Asia (excluding Japan), and Western Europe will be the leading generators of financial wealth globally, accounting for 87 percent of new financial wealth growth worldwide between now and 2025.

Many wealth management clients in 2020 embraced alternative investments in their quest for higher returns, shifting away from low-yield debt securities. As part of this trend, real assets, led primarily by real estate ownership, reached an all-time high of $235 trillion. Nevertheless, Asia, which has the largest concentration of wealth in real assets ($84 trillion, 64 percent of the regional total) will see financial asset growth exceed real asset growth (7.9 percent versus 6.7 percent) in coming years. In particular, investment funds in the region will become the fastest-growing financial asset class, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.6 percent through 2025.

In the report, BCG identifies two attractive markets for wealth managers. One consists of individuals with simple investment needs and financial wealth between $100,000 and $3 million. This “simple-needs segment” comprises 331 million individuals worldwide, holds $59 trillion in investable wealth and has the potential to contribute $118 billion to the global wealth revenue pool.

Anna Zakrzewski, a BCG managing director and partner, global leader of the firm’s wealth management segment, and a co-author of the report said, “Wealth managers often underserve those in the simple-needs segment with a standardized set of products, and the result is a poor client experience with no “wow” factor.

This is essentially a missed opportunity. To better serve this key segment, wealth managers must embrace a new approach that lets them reach a larger audience in a cost-effective and scalable way, but with a highly personalized offering.”

Retirees, one of the world’s fastest-growing demographics, are another appealing market. Many are underserved and adversely impacted by the “advisory gap” that prevails during the retirement phase of life. Today, individuals over 65 own $29.3 trillion in financial assets accessible to wealth managers.

That figure will grow at a CAGR of close to 7 percent over the next five years, enabling wealth managers globally to target nearly $41.1 trillion in financial wealth by 2025. By 2050, 1.5 billion people globally will fall into the 65+ category, representing an enormous source of wealth.

In addition to the simple-needs and retirees segments, the “ultra” wealth category—individuals whose personal wealth exceeds $100 million—expanded in 2020, with 6000 people joining the 60,000-strong cohort, which has seen year-on-year growth of 9 percent since 2015. The category currently holds a combined $22 trillion in investable wealth, 15 percent of the world’s total.

According to the report, China is on track to overtake the US as the country with the largest concentration of ultras by the end of the decade. If investable wealth continues to rise there at its current annual rate of 13 percent, China will host $10.4 trillion in ultra assets by 2029, more than any other market in the world. The US will be close behind, with a forecasted total of $9.9 trillion in such wealth by 2029.

The faces of the ultras are changing too, with the rise of the next-generation segment. These individuals, between 20 and 50 years of age, have longer investment horizons, a greater appetite for risk, and often a desire to use their wealth to create positive social impact as well as earn solid returns. Many wealth managers are not yet ready to serve these new ultras.

“High-growth markets represent a massive opportunity, but wealth managers must build a genuine understanding of local differences and also key demographic changes,” said BCG’s Zakrzewski.

“For example, women now account for 12 percent of ultras, most of whom are based in the US, Germany, and China. The next-gen segment is also going to be an influential driver of future growth in the next decade or so. Whether it’s a simple-needs or ultra-high-net-worth client, managers need to offer a personalized service in order to effectively capture the next wave of growth.”

A copy of the report can be downloaded here.

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