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Naira Devaluation Reduces Nigeria’s Trade Deficit by 44%

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The devaluation of the naira slashed Nigeria’s trade deficit by 44 per cent to N196.5bn in June, from N351.3bn in March, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Tuesday.

The bureau said the value of exports increased by 63 per cent to N1.9tn in the quarter.

“The improvement in export value is largely due to the depreciation in the value of the naira,” the NBS said in a statement.

  The nation’s total value of trade increased to N3.94tn in the second quarter, up from N2.7tn, it said

The NBS, in the merchandise trade statistics for the second quarter of this year, said the country recorded a 49 per cent increase in trade from N2.65tn in the first quarter to N3.94tn.

The bureau in the report stated that the increase in trade was as a result of a rise of N725.6bn in the value of exports against what was recorded in the preceding quarter.

It said as a result of the improvement in the second quarter trade, the country’s negative trade balance had now reduced by N154.8bn to N196.5bn.

The report stated, “The total value of Nigeria’s merchandise trade in Q2, 2016 was N3.94tn. This was 49 per cent more than the value of N2.64tn recorded in the preceding quarter.

“This development arose from a rise of N725.6bn or 63.3 per cent in the value of exports (largely due to the exchange rate gains), combined with a rise of N570.8bn or 38.1 per cent in the value of imports against the levels recorded in the preceding quarter.

“The current trade position brought the country’s negative trade balance to  N196.5bn during the period under review. This shows a N154.8bn reduction in the country’s trade deficit over the previous quarter.”

In terms of the structure of Nigeria’s trade, the report stated that the country’s import stood at N2.06tn at the end of the second quarter, representing an increase of 38.1 per cent from the value N1.9tn recorded in the preceding quarter.

As with exports, it said the increase in import value could be traced to a decline in the value of the naira.

It said capital goods and parts, with N663.6bn or 32.1 per cent, accounted for the highest chunk of the country’s imports.

This was followed by industrial supplies with N421.2bn or 20.4 per cent, and transport equipment and parts with N356.1bn or 17.2 per cent.

It said the import trade by direction showed that the country imported goods mostly from China, the Netherlands, the United States, India and the United Kingdom.

Trade with these countries accounted for N493.5bn or 23.9 per cent; N285.7bn or 13.8 per cent; N199bn or 9.6 per cent; N124.9bn or six per cent; and N119.3bn or 5.8 per cent, respectively, of the total value of goods imported during the quarter.

For export, the report put the value of the trade at N1.87tn in the second quarter, indicating an increase of N725.6bn or 63.3 per cent over the value recorded in the preceding quarter.

“The improvement in export value is largely due to the depreciation in the value of the naira,” it added.

The structure of the export trade, the report added, was still dominated by crude oil exports, which contributed N1.49tn or 79.7 per cent to the value of total domestic export trade in 2016.

“Whenever there is a devaluation of the currency it encourages exporters because they get more naira for the goods sold at the international market or priced in dollar,” an analyst at Lagos-based Financial Derivatives Company, Opeyemi Oguntade, told Reuters.

“For the country and the exporter, the thing to consider is if the benefit of the devaluation is high enough to outweigh the cost of rising inflation,” he added.

Nigeria’s leading export markets include India, the US, Spain and the Netherlands.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Economy

Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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Gas-Pipeline

The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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