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Dollar Scarcity: Petrol Price Hike Looms – Marketers

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Crude oil

Nigerians should prepare for another increase in the pump prices of petrol, due to the continued scarcity of foreign exchange to finance the importation of the product, oil marketers have said.

According to them, the United States dollar hit an all-time high last week, as it exchanged for N400 at the parallel market.

Worried by the development, the marketers say if not urgently addressed, the pump prices of petrol will not remain at the approved rates.

The Federal Government liberalised the downstream sector of the petroleum industry on May 11, 2016, and announced an increase in the pump prices of petrol from N86 and N86.5 per litre to between N135 and N145 per litre.

It also stated that the market was to be driven by the factors of demand and supply, as it was now largely in the hands of private sector players.

But oil marketers told our correspondent on Monday that despite the competition in the business, they were struggling to retain the price of the Premium Motor Spirit within the approved range.

“The truth is that Nigerians just have to brace for higher PMS price; there are no two ways about it. The government cannot fund this market; the money is not just there. Even if the government wishes to assist, it does not have the wherewithal to do. So, Nigerians should brace for higher rates,” an official of one of the notable oil marketing companies, who spoke to our correspondent on condition of anonymity, said.

He added, “We are all aware that the price of crude has been falling in the international market and it is the dollar the government gets from crude sale that it uses to solve forex problems. So, there’s no fast rule or solution to it than for all of us, both users and marketers, to just prepare for a price hike.

“For marketers, they should know that the days of higher profits are gone. Before now, if you want to import petrol, you’ll have to wait for months and possibly bribe some people to get an import licence. But those days are gone; nowadays, every interested dealer can get the licence and this has created room for competition, which is why you still get the product at around N140 to N145 per litre. We only hope that this will continue as the dollar availability improves.”

A member of the Major Oil Marketers Association of Nigeria stated that the ex-depot price of the PMS had remained at N133.28 per litre because the marketers were doing their best to manage the situation.

The marketer, who also pleaded to remain anonymous because of the sensitive nature of the subject, said the PMS dealers hardly got forex at the rate that the government initially promised them.

He said, “It is very logical for the PMS price to rise any moment from now, for there is no way somebody can import at the rate of N400 to a dollar and you expect him to continue selling at the official ex-depot price. And mind you, the government promised to facilitate forex provision to marketers at N287 to a dollar, because you cannot buy at N400 and expect to continue selling at the prevalent rates you see at filling stations today.

“However, most depots are still managing the situation and are selling at the recommended price of N133.28 per litre to filling stations. It is when it goes above this price that you will notice the eventual increase in the pump prices of the PMS. So, if the trend of forex unavailability continues, then the situation may go out of the control of the marketers.”

On whether oil dealers have a peculiar channel for sourcing forex outside the official and parallel markets, the source said, “There’s no other way for sourcing it. Although outside the parallel market, there is still an autonomous market where you may get the dollar at rates that are less than what you get from the parallel.

“There are usually two prices at the market and marketers look at the one with the lower price, which is mostly the government regulated rate. However, the difference between the two prices is marginal most times.”

A senior official of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria, Mr. Dibu Aderigbigbe, had earlier told our correspondent that the forex crisis might lead to a further hike in petrol price if it persisted.

“The dollar is the major legal tender used for the importation of petroleum products; so, any crisis in forex will definitely affect the prices of these commodities in the long run. However, we hope the situation is addressed in earnest,” he said.

The Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, Dr. Ibe Kachikwu, recently made it clear that the government had liberalised the downstream oil sector, stressing that the refined products and their prices were in the hands of private sector players.

When contacted, the spokesperson for the CBN, Mr. Isaac Okoroafor, said since the flexible foreign exchange rate regime commenced, the apex bank made it clear that all transactions would be based on the prevalent forex market rate.

He said, “As soon as we introduced the new flexible foreign exchange market, it was made clear to everybody that all transactions must go through that market. The only concession we made was that, yes, we agreed that the IOCs will sell dollars to petrol importers, but it must be at the prevailing rate of the market on the day of the transaction.

“What we have done for transactions concerning oil importation is that the IOCs are allowed to sell their foreign exchange to petrol importers, because oil is a very important commodity to the nation. But the IOCs must sell at the ruling exchange rate from the market for that day and this means the prevalent rate for the day.

“For instance, today, the market closed at N311 to a dollar, which means if they (IOCs) are selling, they have to sell to the marketers at that rate. The CBN never promised anybody a lower rate; it is the market that determines the rate.”

However, the spokesperson for the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation, Mr. Garba-Deen Mohammed, did not answer calls made to his mobile telephone number.

He also did not respond to a text message sent to his telephone on the matter as of the time of filing this report around 9.20pm.

But the General Secretary, Nigeria Labour Congress, Peter Ozo-Eson, said the removal of the fuel subsidy in an import-driven regime for petroleum products was the beginning of crisis.

Ozo-Eson said the NLC had warned Nigerians during the last protest it organised against the increase in the pump price that the subsidy removal would result in an uncontrollable increase in the price of the commodity.

He stated that a look at the current prices of diesel and kerosene showed that the government was only managing the current pump price of petrol to prevent people from losing faith in the decision to remove subsidy on the product without first ensuring local refining.

The labour leader argued that with an exchange rate of N400 to the dollar, the pricing template would be higher than the recommended pump price, which would result in a crisis.

Ozo-Eson stated, “If you recall what led to our strike and protest the other time, then we said that it was the beginning of a crisis to do what they had done under an import regime for petroleum products and that it would lead to a spiral that we would have no control over. And so, I do not see how the price of the PMS will remain at N145 or thereabout with the pressure on the naira, and we predicted that.

“As a matter of fact, when you look at what is happening to the prices of diesel and kerosene today, then you will realise that for now, they are just managing and holding on to the price of the PMS in order for people not to lose faith in what they have done.

“But with time, we are going to face the reality that if the naira is 400  or more to the dollar, and you now go down through the template, you are going to find that the recommended pump price will be much higher and there will be a crisis.”

He said that the government had the option to either allow the market to collapse or bring in some form of support to address the situation.

According to him, it is up to Nigerians to either endure it or mount pressure on the government to take steps to protect them.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Crude Oil

Oil Prices Decline for Third Consecutive Day on Weaker Economic Data and Inventory Concerns

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Oil prices extended their decline for the third consecutive day on Wednesday as concerns over weaker economic data and increasing commercial inventories in the United States weighed on oil outlook.

Brent oil, against which Nigerian oil is priced, dropped by 51 cents to $89.51 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell by 41 cents to $84.95 a barrel.

The softening of oil prices this week reflects the impact of economic headwinds on global demand, dampening the gains typically seen from geopolitical tensions.

Market observers are closely monitoring how Israel might respond to Iran’s recent attack, though analysts suggest that this event may not significantly affect Iran’s oil exports.

John Evans, an oil broker at PVM, remarked on the situation, noting that oil prices are readjusting after factoring in a “war premium” and facing setbacks in hopes for interest rate cuts.

The anticipation for interest rate cuts received a blow as top U.S. Federal Reserve officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, refrained from providing guidance on the timing of such cuts. This dashed investors’ expectations for significant reductions in borrowing costs this year.

Similarly, Britain’s slower-than-expected inflation rate in March hinted at a delay in the Bank of England’s rate cut, while inflation across the euro zone suggested a potential rate cut by the European Central Bank in June.

Meanwhile, concerns about U.S. crude inventories persist, with a Reuters poll indicating a rise of about 1.4 million barrels last week. Official data from the Energy Information Administration is awaited, scheduled for release on Wednesday.

Adding to the mix, Tengizchevroil announced plans for maintenance at one of six production trains at the Tengiz oilfield in Kazakhstan in May, further influencing market sentiment.

As the oil market navigates through a landscape of economic indicators and geopolitical events, investors remain vigilant for cues that could dictate future price movements.

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Commodities

Dangote Refinery Cuts Diesel Price to ₦1,000 Amid Economic Boost

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Aliko Dangote - Investors King

Dangote Petroleum Refinery has reduced the price of diesel from ₦1200 to ₦1,000 per litre.

This price adjustment is in response to the demand of oil marketers, who last week clamoured for a lower price.

Just three weeks ago, the refinery had already made waves by lowering the price of diesel to ₦1,200 per litre, a 30% reduction from the previous market price of around ₦1,600 per litre.

Now, with the latest reduction to ₦1,000 per litre, Dangote Refinery is demonstrating its commitment to providing accessible and affordable fuel to consumers across the country.

This move is expected to have far-reaching implications for Nigeria’s economy, particularly in tackling high inflation rates and promoting economic stability.

Aliko Dangote, Africa’s richest man and the owner of the refinery, expressed confidence that the reduction in diesel prices would contribute to a drop in inflation, offering hope for improved economic conditions.

Dangote stated that the Nigerian people have demonstrated patience amidst economic challenges, and he believes that this reduction in diesel prices is a step in the right direction.

He pointed out the aggressive devaluation of the naira, which has significantly impacted the country’s economy, and sees the price reduction as a positive development that will benefit Nigerians.

With this latest move, Dangote Refinery is not only reshaping the fuel market but also reaffirming its commitment to driving positive change and progress in Nigeria.

The reduction in diesel prices is expected to provide relief to consumers, businesses, and various sectors of the economy, paving the way for a brighter and more prosperous future.

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IEA Cuts 2024 Oil Demand Growth Forecast by 100,000 Barrels per Day

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The International Energy Agency (IEA) has reduced its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2024 by 100,000 barrels per day (bpd).

The agency cited a sluggish start to the year in developed economies as a key factor contributing to the downward revision.

According to the latest Oil Market Report released by the IEA, global oil consumption has continued to experience a slowdown in growth momentum with first-quarter growth estimated at 1.6 million bpd.

This figure falls short of the IEA’s previous forecast by 120,000 bpd, indicating a more sluggish demand recovery than anticipated.

With much of the post-Covid rebound already realized, the IEA now projects global oil demand to grow by 1.2 million bpd in 2024.

Furthermore, growth is expected to decelerate further to 1.1 million bpd in the following year, reflecting ongoing challenges in the market.

This revision comes just a month after the IEA had raised its outlook for 2024 oil demand growth by 110,000 bpd from its February report.

At that time, the agency had expected demand growth to reach 1.3 million bpd for 2024, indicating a more optimistic outlook compared to the current revision.

The IEA’s latest demand growth estimates diverge significantly from those of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). While the IEA projects modest growth, OPEC maintains its forecast of robust global oil demand growth of 2.2 million bpd for 2024, consistent with its previous assessment.

However, uncertainties loom over the global oil market, particularly due to geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions.

The IEA has highlighted the impact of drone attacks from Ukraine on Russian refineries, which could potentially disrupt fuel markets globally.

Up to 600,000 bpd of Russia’s refinery capacity could be offline in the second quarter due to these attacks, according to the IEA’s assessment.

Furthermore, unplanned outages in Europe and tepid Chinese activity have contributed to a lowered forecast of global refinery throughputs for 2024.

The IEA now anticipates refinery throughputs to rise by 1 million bpd to 83.3 million bpd, reflecting the challenges facing the refining sector.

The situation has raised concerns among policymakers, with the United States expressing worries over the impact of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries.

There are fears that these attacks could lead to retaliatory measures from Russia and result in higher international oil prices.

As the global oil market navigates through these challenges, stakeholders will closely monitor developments and adjust their strategies accordingly to adapt to the evolving landscape.

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