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World’s No. 2 Currency Trader Says Dollar Rebound Just the Start

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10 dollar bill

The dollar’s three-week rally is just the beginning, according to Deutsche Bank AG.

A slump by the greenback earlier this year has “likely run its course,” analysts at the world’s second-largest currency trader wrote in a note Friday. The bank favors buying the U.S. currency versus emerging markets — such as China, Mexico and South Korea — following a shakeout in speculative bets on the dollar, George Saravelos, co-head of global foreign-exchange research in London, wrote.

With policy makers from the Group-of-Seven economies meeting in Japan, the Federal Reserve this week gave the dollar a boost by signaling that it may raise interest rates as soon as June. That helped send the greenback to a seven-week high, providing relief to policy makers outside the U.S. who have watched with dismay as a weaker dollar eroded the stimulatory effect of interest-rate cuts and bond purchases.

“The dollar still has some legs,” said Sebastien Galy, a strategist at Deutsche Bank in New York. “The global dollar trend is probably far less appealing than it used to be, but there’s still some opportunity there.”

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the dollar versus 10 peers, added 0.8 percent this week. The greenback rose 0.8 percent to $1.1224 per euro and gained 1.4 percent to 110.15 yen.

Market Swings

The dollar slumped 12 percent versus the yen, 7 percent versus the euro, and 7 percent against 10 peers this year before turning higher this month.

More neutral positioning signals room for dollar gains. Hedge funds and other large speculators cutting bets against the dollar this week after turning net bearish on the currency for the first time since 2014 at the end of April, data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission show.

“The dollar cycle isn’t old enough to die of old age,” Saravelos wrote. “Recent weakness has likely run its course.”

For Deutsche Bank, the dollar’s biggest gains will be versus emerging markets, partly because they rely less on Fed expectations.

New York and Richmond Fed presidents both indicated this week that the central bank may look to raise rates as soon as June — a message also hinted at in minutes from its last meeting. Markets are pricing just a 30 percent likelihood of a hike next month and a 73 percent by the end of the year.

State Street Corp., with about $2.3 trillion under management, agrees. Emerging markets are likely to slump versus the dollar, while the performance of the greenback versus the euro and yen depends on the Fed.

“The dollar does go up against risky assets,” Lee Ferridge, the Boston-based head of macro strategy for North America at State Street Global Markets, said in an interview at Bloomberg’s New York headquarters. “But for euro and yen, it’s much more subtle now because that’s about policy divergence.”

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Naira

Naira Hits Eight-Month High at 1,120/$ Amidst Central Bank Reforms

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New Naira Notes

The Nigerian Naira has surged to an eight-month high of 1,120 against the US dollar on the parallel market, commonly referred to as the black market.

This significant appreciation comes on the heels of a series of foreign exchange (FX) reforms initiated by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), which have effectively unlocked dollar liquidity within the economy.

According to data compiled from online platforms and street traders, the current exchange rate reflects a gain of 62.95% for the Naira against the dollar compared to its level of 1,825 per dollar in February 2024.

Market sentiment suggests that the recent strengthening of the Naira can be attributed to a subdued demand for the US dollar, coupled with ample liquidity in the market, particularly during the holiday period.

Despite a decline in external reserves, Nigeria’s currency strengthened to 1,230.61 per dollar on the official FX market before the holidays.

The recent uptick in the Naira’s value follows the CBN’s decision to review the exchange rate for Bureau De Change (BDC) Operators to 1,101 per dollar from 1,251 per dollar.

Also, the CBN announced plans to sell $15.88 million to 1,588 eligible BDCs, further bolstering dollar liquidity in the market.

The CBN’s proactive approach to FX management, including the resolution of foreign exchange backlogs amounting to US$7 billion, has instilled confidence among investors and market participants.

Furthermore, the apex bank’s commitment to implementing reforms aimed at enhancing transparency and efficiency in the FX market has yielded positive results.

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Forex

Zimbabwe’s Gold-Backed Currency Surges 0.2% Against US Dollar

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Zimbabwe’s newly introduced gold-backed currency, known as ZiG, surged by 0.2% against the US dollar on its second day of trading.

This development has sparked both cautious optimism and renewed concerns about the nation’s financial stability.

The Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe reported that the exchange rate for ZiG strengthened to 13.53 per US dollar, compared to its initial rate of 13.56 per dollar on its debut trading day.

The slight but significant uptick in value comes as a welcome sign for Zimbabwean authorities who have been striving to establish a functional local currency amid persistent economic challenges.

The ZiG currency, introduced as the country’s sixth attempt to stabilize its monetary system, is backed by 2,522 kilograms of gold and approximately $100 million in foreign currency reserves held by the central bank.

This gold backing is seen as a crucial step to restore confidence in Zimbabwe’s currency after years of hyperinflation and currency instability.

Despite the positive momentum witnessed in the currency market, the transition to ZiG has not been without its hurdles. Banks, retailers, and utilities across the nation have been grappling with the logistical challenges of adopting the new currency, leading to disruptions in commerce nationwide.

Many businesses are still in the process of updating their systems to accommodate ZiG transactions, causing delays and confusion in payment processing.

The Zimbabwean government has set a deadline of April 12 for businesses to fully transition their electronic systems to ZiG.

However, reports indicate that only a third of the financial institutions linked to the national payments platform have been able to process ZiG payments effectively, highlighting the ongoing challenges facing the currency transition.

While the surge in ZiG’s value against the US dollar offers a glimmer of hope for Zimbabwe’s economic prospects, experts caution that sustained stability will depend on factors beyond short-term fluctuations.

Market confidence, effective monetary policies, and structural reforms will all play crucial roles in determining the long-term viability of the ZiG currency and the broader economic recovery efforts in Zimbabwe.

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Naira

Dollar to Naira Black Market Today, April 9th, 2024

As of April 9th, 2024, the exchange rate for the US dollar to the Nigerian Naira stands at 1 USD to 1,200 NGN in the black market, also referred to as the parallel market or Aboki fx.

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New Naira notes

As of April 9th, 2024, the exchange rate for the US dollar to the Nigerian Naira stands at 1 USD to 1,200 NGN in the black market, also referred to as the parallel market or Aboki fx.

For those engaging in currency transactions in the Lagos Parallel Market (Black Market), buyers purchase a dollar for N1,240 and sell it at N1,230 on Monday, April 9th, 2024 based on information from Bureau De Change (BDC).

Meaning, the Naira exchange rate improved when compared to today’s rate below.

This black market rate signifies the value at which individuals can trade their dollars for Naira outside the official or regulated exchange channels.

Investors and participants closely monitor these parallel market rates for a more immediate reflection of currency dynamics.

How Much is Dollar to Naira Today in the Black Market?

Kindly be aware that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not acknowledge the existence of the parallel market, commonly referred to as the black market.

The CBN has advised individuals seeking to participate in Forex transactions to utilize official banking channels.

Black Market Dollar to Naira Exchange Rate

  • Buying Rate: N1,200
  • Selling Rate: N1,190

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