Forex

World’s No. 2 Currency Trader Says Dollar Rebound Just the Start

Published

6 years ago

May 22, 2016

The dollar’s three-week rally is just the beginning, according to Deutsche Bank AG.

A slump by the greenback earlier this year has “likely run its course,” analysts at the world’s second-largest currency trader wrote in a note Friday. The bank favors buying the U.S. currency versus emerging markets — such as China, Mexico and South Korea — following a shakeout in speculative bets on the dollar, George Saravelos, co-head of global foreign-exchange research in London, wrote.

With policy makers from the Group-of-Seven economies meeting in Japan, the Federal Reserve this week gave the dollar a boost by signaling that it may raise interest rates as soon as June. That helped send the greenback to a seven-week high, providing relief to policy makers outside the U.S. who have watched with dismay as a weaker dollar eroded the stimulatory effect of interest-rate cuts and bond purchases.

“The dollar still has some legs,” said Sebastien Galy, a strategist at Deutsche Bank in New York. “The global dollar trend is probably far less appealing than it used to be, but there’s still some opportunity there.”

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the dollar versus 10 peers, added 0.8 percent this week. The greenback rose 0.8 percent to $1.1224 per euro and gained 1.4 percent to 110.15 yen.

Market Swings

The dollar slumped 12 percent versus the yen, 7 percent versus the euro, and 7 percent against 10 peers this year before turning higher this month.

More neutral positioning signals room for dollar gains. Hedge funds and other large speculators cutting bets against the dollar this week after turning net bearish on the currency for the first time since 2014 at the end of April, data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission show.

“The dollar cycle isn’t old enough to die of old age,” Saravelos wrote. “Recent weakness has likely run its course.”

For Deutsche Bank, the dollar’s biggest gains will be versus emerging markets, partly because they rely less on Fed expectations.

New York and Richmond Fed presidents both indicated this week that the central bank may look to raise rates as soon as June — a message also hinted at in minutes from its last meeting. Markets are pricing just a 30 percent likelihood of a hike next month and a 73 percent by the end of the year.

State Street Corp., with about $2.3 trillion under management, agrees. Emerging markets are likely to slump versus the dollar, while the performance of the greenback versus the euro and yen depends on the Fed.

“The dollar does go up against risky assets,” Lee Ferridge, the Boston-based head of macro strategy for North America at State Street Global Markets, said in an interview at Bloomberg’s New York headquarters. “But for euro and yen, it’s much more subtle now because that’s about policy divergence.”

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Samed Olukoya

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Naira

Naira Exchange Rate Dips at Official Market and Black Market

Published

3 days ago

May 17, 2022

Samed Olukoya

The Nigerian Naira opened the week lower against the United States Dollar at the Investors and Exporters (I&E) foreign exchange window now adopted as the official forex window and also at the black market.

The local currency opened at N417.30 against the United States Dollar before declining by 0.60% to close the day at N421.50/$ at the I&E window. Forex traders at the window transacted forex worth $70.68 million on Monday.

For banks and international money transfer operators, the Central Bank of Nigeria buys US Dollars at N414.75 and sells at N415.75. The apex bank buys and sells Pounds Sterling N508.2761 and N509.5016, respectively. For the European common currency, the Euro, the central bank sold it at N433.0453 and acquired it at N432.0036 a unit.

At the parallel market popularly known as the black market, the Naira was exchanged at N599 for a United States Dollar in Abuja.

Speaking on why the exchange rate is that high, Abu Abdullahi, a currency trader at Zone 4 in Abuja, said demand for the U.S. Dollar is high despite persistent scarcity.

Crude Oil

Crude oil extended its gain in the early hours of Tuesday on optimism that China, the world’s largest importer of the commodity, would see substantial demand recovery after the latest data pointed to slowing COVID-19 infections in the hardest-hit areas.

Brent crude oil, the international benchmark for Nigerian crude oil, gained $2.69, or 2.4% to $114.24 a barrel at 5 am Nigerian time. The U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose $3.71, or 3.4%, to $114.20 a barrel, Investors King understands.

“We are seeing a lot of signals that demand will start returning in that region, supporting higher prices,” said Bob Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho.

Cryptocurrency

Finally, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies shake off Luna-led decline to pare losses on Tuesday. Luna Foundation Guard (LFG) announced in the late hours of Monday that it was discontinuing Luna Coin and stablecoin (UST) operations to launch a new blockchain protocol that would focus on developers and building in general.

The announcement marked the end of one of the most promising cryptocurrency projects and once again reminds the world of how vulnerable the cryptocurrency space is — regardless of what creators say.

Bitcoin gained 1.99% to $30,366 per coin while Eth, a token of Ethereum, XRP (token of Ripple) and Solana appreciated by 3.15%, 3.25% and 4.39% to close at $2,084.27, $0.431744 and $55.86, respectively.

Naira

Black Market: Dollar to Naira Exchange Rate Remains Under Pressure

1 dollar to naira today on the black market was N585 and purchased at N590 in Ibadan and Lagos

Published

4 days ago

May 16, 2022

Samed Olukoya

The Nigerian Naira remained under pressure against global counterparts in the Nigerian unregulated parallel market, popularly known as the black market. $1 dollar to naira today on the black market was N585 and purchased at N590 in Ibadan and Lagos.

At the Investors and Exporters’ forex window, the Dollar to Naira exchange rate dipped by 0.24% to N419 from N417.70 it exchanged on Thursday.

For the interbank market, Investors King observed that the Nigerian Naira remained largely unchanged at N415.74 against the U.S. Dollar.

Cryptocurrency

Bitcoin to Naira exchange rate remained subdued as the uncertainty surrounding the cryptocurrency space surged to a record-high following about a 99% plunge in the value of Terra Luna Coin and its stablecoin, UST.

Bitcoin to Naira exchange rate dropped by 1.49% in the last 24 hours to N17.859 million. While Eth, a token of the Ethereum protocol dipped by 0.34% to N1.232 million, down from about N2 million it traded a few weeks ago.

The uncertainty in the cryptocurrency space also dragged on the Binance coin (BNB) as the coin of the world’s leading cryptocurrency exchange platform moderated to N179,834 a coin, a 0.50% decline in its value.

Luna, the cryptocurrency that once again alerted the world to the vulnerability of unregulated space, is presently trading at N0.120 per coin, down from about N57,000 it was trading a week ago.

Crude Oil

Oil prices fell on Monday as the uncertainty surrounding China, the world’s second-largest economy, continues to drag on the commodity outlook.

Brent crude, the benchmark for Nigerian crude oil dipped by 0.7%, or 72 cents to $110.83 per barrel at 11:45 am on Monday. While the U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil fell by 0.5%, or 58 cents to $109.91 a barrel.

The decline was a result of the prolonged COVID-19 lockdown in china. China, the world’s largest importer of crude oil, is said to have instituted lockdown restrictions in about 46 cities to curb the spreading COVID-19.

However, this lockdown has started disrupting China’s economic activity as retail sales contracted by 11% while factory production dropped by 2.9% in the month of April.

Experts are now predicting that despite Russia’s sanction, crude oil prices could drop further if the Chinese lockdown persists.

eNaira

Africa, World to Enjoy More Payment Satisfaction Through eNaira – CBN says

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has said the adoption of its Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) known as eNaira will deepen financial inclusion

Published

1 week ago

May 11, 2022

Pelumi Bolawa

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has said the adoption of its Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) known as eNaira will deepen financial inclusion, ease the nation’s payment bottleneck and support transborder transactions across Africa and beyond.

Godwin Emefile, the governor of the apex bank disclosed this on Monday while receiving Bank of Uganda delegates, who were on an experience sharing tour of the Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC), in Abuja.

He said, “the CBDC would enhance the relationship between mobile banking and e-business and speed up the rate of financial inclusion.”

“The eNaira, being the first of its kind for a large country like Nigeria, was attracting the interests of many countries, Uganda inclusive.

“We’ve been receiving enquiries from various Central Banks in different parts of Africa and the world, trying to understand what we are doing in the area of CBDC. We are happy that the IMF and World Bank have recognised what we are doing in the area of CBDC.

“However, the country has deepened its payment system infrastructure, and is ranked among the best in the world.”

What it is

Earlier in October 2021, Investors king reported that the Central Bank of Nigeria launched the eNaira, after over 20 days of supposed launch.

The eNaira is a Central Bank Digital Currency backed by law and issued by the CBN as a legal tender. It is the digital form of the Naira used as cash.

The Digital currency was introduced to provide high‐value and time‐critical payment services to financial institutions, and ultimately serves as the backbone for every electronic payment in Nigeria,” President Muhammadu Buhari said.

Nigeria became the first country in Africa and one of the first in the world to introduce a digital currency to our citizens, according to Investors king.