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Forex Weekly Outlook May 23 – 27

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Images Of Chinese Yuan Banknotes

The various economic data released last week from the U.S. shows an improved economy, especially the consumer price index that rose 0.4 percent in April and 1.6 percent year-on-year. While this is a good news, it is yet uncertain if it’s enough for Fed to increase borrowing cost when job creation is still struggling and gasoline cost rising with oil prices. But with the U.S. dollar renew demands, I have narrowed down pairs I will be looking at this week to EURUSD, GBPUSD and AUDUSD.

EURUSD

Currently, the euro-area is struggling with the possibility of Britain exit from the European Union. This couple with weak manufacturing sector amid global slowdown has created too many uncertainties around the single currency, and as the June referendum draws closer demand is expected to drop as most investors will like to know the out-come of the June vote before making a long-term commitment.

EURUSDWeekly

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Now to the chart, three weeks ago, eurusd weekly candlestick closed as rejection after reaching 1.1615, and failed again two weeks ago to sustain 1.1338 support level established since January 18th, hence, reaching 1.1178 price level. Its lowest price level in seven weeks. As long as new resistance level 1.1338 holds, I am bearish on EurUSd with 1.0925 as target.

GBPUSD

The pound jumped the most this year last week after polls showed brexit risks receding, but quickly lost half of its 331 pips gain immediately the officials of the Bank of England said even with positive outcome in June referendum. U.K. will still require additional stimulus to aid its economy.

GBPUSDDaily

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Another reason why I think this is a good set up is the chart. The last candlestick of last week, Friday’s candlestick closed bearish, giving us evening star pattern after Thursday’s spinning top rejection. Though its a volatile pair that requires certain monitoring, but trading it against a strong US dollar should give us around 150 pips from 1.4500 with 1.4350 as the target, provided price remains below 1.4500 price level.

AUDUSD

The Aussie dollar is worth looking into this week for several reasons, one its economic data failed to support its gains so far this year after inflation fell below the Reserve Bank of Australia target in the first quarter of the year, prompting Governor Glenn Stevens and its monetary committee to cut interest rates by 25 basis points. While the market thinks another 25 basis points cut will be needed to achieve the central bank target. The central bank has stepped forward to maintain its current outlook by leaving interest rates unchanged. A decision that creates more doubt about the state of the economy, and with Goldman Sachs Group Inc. kick-starting a process to sell $9 billion of its Australian asset arm. We can only expect more downfall of the currency in the days to come.

AUDUSDWeekly

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The weekly time-frame confirmed rejection of higher prices with last week close, as long as price remain below 0.7379 I am bearish on Audusd but to minimize risk and maximize profit, it is advisable to wait for Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens Speech due on Tuesday for a better entry while targeting 0.7092.

Last Week Recap

NUDUSD dropped 138 pips last week from the 0.6847 entry level, but has gained back 73 pips since last week Thursday even with negative Global Dairy Trade and Producer Price report, this week New Zealand trade balance report and annual Budget release are due. Hence, I will be looking to sell at a much better price level for 0.6771 that seems to be our new support, and then 0.6609 as explained last week. Provided 0.6847 resistance level still holds.

NZDUSDDaily

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USDCAD

Last week target was hit at 1.3142, but this week a sustainable close above 1.3142 resistance level is needed to confirm the continuation of trend for another 240 pips with 1.3382 as the target.

USDCADDaily

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GBPJPY

Fell short of 161.71 target by 9 pips after gaining 597 pips. This is week, I will stay aside while monitoring price actions and fundamental behind the pair as BOJ comments and England numerous issues from brexit to economic data could trigger volatility.

GBPJPYDaily

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A wonderful week to us all, and please drop comments.

 

 

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Naira

Black Market Dollar (USD) to Naira (NGN) Exchange Rate Today 25th July 2024

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Naira Exchange Rates - Investors King

The black market, also known as the parallel market or Aboki fx, US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of July 25th, 2024 stood at 1 USD to ₦1,595.

Recent data from Bureau De Change (BDC) reveals that buyers in the Lagos Parallel Market purchased a dollar for ₦1,580 and sold it at ₦1,570 on Wednesday, July 24th, 2024.

This indicates a decline in the Naira exchange rate value when compared to today’s rate.

The black market rate plays a crucial role for investors and participants, offering a real-time reflection of currency dynamics outside official or regulated exchange channels.

Monitoring these rates provides insights into the immediate value of the Naira against the dollar, guiding decision-making processes for individuals and businesses alike.

It’s important to note that while the black market offers valuable insights, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not officially recognize its existence.

The CBN advises individuals engaging in forex transactions to utilize official banking channels, emphasizing the importance of compliance with regulatory frameworks.

How much is dollar to naira today in the black market

For those navigating the currency exchange landscape, here are the latest figures for the black market exchange rate:

  • Buying Rate: ₦1,595
  • Selling Rate: ₦1,585

As economic conditions continue to evolve, staying informed about currency exchange rates empowers individuals to make informed financial decisions. While the black market provides immediate insights, adherence to regulatory guidelines ensures stability and transparency in forex transactions.

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Forex

IMTOs Drive 38.86% Rise in Foreign Exchange Inflows to $1.07bn in First Quarter of 2024

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Naira Exchange Rates - Investors King

Foreign exchange inflows into Nigeria surged by 38.86% to $1.07 billion in the first quarter of 2024, according to the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) latest quarterly statistical bulletin.

This increase is attributed to the enhanced contributions from International Money Transfer Operators (IMTOs).

In January, IMTOs facilitated inflows amounting to $383.04 million. This figure dipped slightly to $322.83 million in February but rebounded to $363.70 million by March, this upward trend represents a 10.74% growth from the previous quarter of 2023.

The surge in forex inflows comes at a critical time for Nigeria, as the country continues to grapple with economic challenges, including inflation and a fluctuating naira.

The increased foreign exchange reserves are expected to provide much-needed stability to the naira and bolster Nigeria’s economic standing in the global arena.

CBN Governor Dr. Olayemi Cardoso has underscored the importance of remittances from the diaspora, which constitute approximately 6% of Nigeria’s GDP.

The recent approval of licenses for 14 new IMTOs is seen as a strategic move to enhance competition and lower transaction costs, thereby encouraging more remittances to flow through formal channels.

“We recognize the significant role that IMTOs play in our foreign exchange ecosystem,” Dr. Cardoso remarked during a recent press briefing.

“The inflows we’ve seen are a testament to the effectiveness of our strategy to engage with these operators and ensure that more remittances are channeled through official avenues.”

The CBN has also introduced measures to facilitate IMTOs’ access to naira liquidity at the official window, aiming to streamline the settlement of diaspora remittances.

This initiative is part of the broader effort to stabilize the forex market and address the persistent challenges of foreign currency availability.

The bulletin also revealed that the inflow from IMTOs has contributed significantly to Nigeria’s overall forex reserves, which are crucial for economic stability and growth.

Analysts suggest that the increased remittances will support the naira, providing relief amidst the country’s ongoing economic adjustments.

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Forex

CBN Resumes Forex Sales as Naira Hits N1,570/$ at Parallel Market

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US Dollar - Investorsking.com

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has resumed the sale of foreign exchange to eligible Bureau De Change (BDC) operators.

The decision was after Naira dipped to N1,570 per dollar in the parallel market,

CBN announced that it would sell dollars to BDCs at a rate of N1,450 per dollar. This decision aims to address distortions in the retail end of the forex market and support the demand for invisible transactions.

Following the CBN’s intervention, the dollar, which recently traded as low as 1,640 per dollar, has shown signs of stabilization.

The apex bank’s action is expected to inject liquidity and restore confidence among market participants.

BDC operators have welcomed the move. Mohammed Magaji, an operator in Abuja, noted that the dollar was selling at 1,630 per dollar.

He emphasized the market’s volatile nature but expressed optimism about the CBN’s intervention.

Aminu Gwadebe, President of the Association of Bureau de Change Operators of Nigeria, attributed the naira’s decline to acute shortages, speculative activities, and increased demand due to recent duty waivers.

He praised the CBN’s action as a necessary step to alleviate market pressures.

The CBN’s efforts include selling $20,000 to each eligible BDC, with a directive to limit profit margins to 1.5% above the purchase rate.

This strategy aims to ensure that end-users receive fair rates and to curb inflationary pressures.

The CBN’s ongoing reforms seek to achieve a market-determined exchange rate for the naira. As the naira continues to navigate turbulent waters, stakeholders remain hopeful that these measures will lead to a more stable and liquid forex market.

Market analysts suggest that sustained interventions and increased access to foreign exchange could help reverse the naira’s downward trend.

The CBN’s actions demonstrate a commitment to tackling the challenges facing the foreign exchange market and supporting Nigeria’s economic stability.

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