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Asian Stocks Slump Amid Rising Yen

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Stocks

The global equity bear market deepened in Asia, with Japanese stocks suffering their worst week since 2008 amid anxiety over central banks’ ability to revive the world economy. European stock-index futures signaled gains as oil rose from a 12-year low.

The Topix index slumped 5.4 percent in Tokyo as traders returned from holiday, pushing the regional Asian benchmark toward its steepest weekly drop since gyrations in Chinese assets at the start of the year. The yen was set for its strongest two-week advance since 1998. U.S. index futures also flagged a rebound after losses there helped the MSCI All-Country Index cap a 20 percent slide from its May record.

“We’re in a moment where Peter Pan thinks he can’t fly any more,” said Ryuta Otsuka, a strategist at Toyo Securities Co. in Tokyo. “When everyone thinks they can’t fly, we’re doomed. There’s nothing we can do but to try and overturn that sentiment.”

Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso said regulators will respond to market volatility if necessary after a move to negative rates failed to assuage anxieties last month. A stronger yen threatens to imperil the world’s third-largest economy through disinflation and lower profits for exporters. Investors ignored a second day of testimony from Janet Yellen, whose indication that the Federal Reserve won’t rush to raise interest rates failed to stem a selloff in riskier assets.

Stocks

The MSCI’s Asia Pacific Index was down 2.8 percent as of 7:08 a.m. London time, on track for a weekly decline of 5.9 percent. The Topix has lost 12.6 percent this week, the most since October 2008. Nomura Holdings Inc. plunged 9.2 percent to the lowest level since December 2012. While Japan resumed trading after a Thursday break, markets in mainland China, Taiwan and Vietnam remain closed for Lunar New Year holidays.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index lost 1 percent, the Kospi index in Seoul slipped 1.4 percent, while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index sank 1.2 percent.

Futures on the Euro Stoxx 50 index were up 0.7 percent, while those on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rallied 0.3 percent. The S&P 500 reduced a slump of as much as 2.3 percent to close down 1.2 percent in afternoon trade.

Trading in South Korea’s Kosdaq exchange for smaller stocks was halted for 20 minutes after the benchmark gauge plunged more than 8 percent on concern valuations were excessive relative to earnings prospects. Celltrion Inc. slid 12 percent, paring its gain this year to 18 percent. The stock was among the 10 biggest gainers in Asia in 2015. Kakao Corp. tumbled 7.9 percent.

Currencies

The yen gained 0.3 percent to 112.14 per dollar. Japan’s currency has strengthened at least 2 percent against all its 31 major peers since Jan. 29 amid demand for haven assets. Government officials expressed concern at the moves, fueling speculation Japan may intervene.

“The verbal intervention has already started, with Ministry of Finance officials talking about moves being rough, which looks like the new code word for undesired strength,” said Ray Attrill, co-head of currency strategy at National Australia Bank Ltd. in Sydney. “110 might be some line in the sand when the MOF will lean on the BOJ to shore things up.”

Higher-yielding and developing nation currencies weakened. The New Zealand dollar fell 0.6 percent to 66.76 U.S. cents, while the Malaysian ringgit dropped 0.5 percent, the Thai baht slid 0.8 percent and the South Korean won lost 0.7 percent.

Bonds

Japan’s 10-year government bond yield rose 7 basis points to 7.5 basis points after falling below zero earlier this week. The similar U.S. Treasury yield rose three basis points to 1.69 percent. The Markit iTraxx Asia index of credit-default swaps rose two basis points to 183, the highest since 2012. That for Japan climbed five basis points to 107.

Commodities

Oil rebounded amid the most volatile prices since 2009 as speculation swirls over whether producers will act to bolster the market. Futures climbed as much as 5.9 percent and were recently up 4.1 percent.

Gold retreated 0.4 percent after a 4.1 percent surge on Thursday. Bullion is set to climb 5.9 percent this week, the most since 2011, as investors flee a bear market in global stocks, a weakening dollar and the fallout from negative interest rates. Nickel rose 0.9 percent after slumping 3.6 percent on Thursday to the lowest close since 2003.

Bloomberg

Is the CEO and Founder of Investors King Limited. He is a seasoned foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Business Insider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and other prominent platforms. With over two decades of experience in global financial markets, Olukoya is well-recognized in the industry.

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Energy

Dangote Refinery Denies Legal Battle With NNPCL, Others, Reveals Plan to Withdraw Old Case From Court

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Dangote Refinery

Dangote Refinery has denied reports of filing a lawsuit against the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation Limited (NNPCL), Aym Shafa Limited, A. A. Rano Limited, T. Time Petroleum Limited, 2015 Petroleum Limited and Matrix Petroleum Services Limited, as widely reported.

Dangote made this known in a statement published via its official X handle on Monday.

A viral report alleging that Dangote filed a suit against the NNPCL and five other companies over the importation of petroleum products emerged online sparking a huge controversy.

Reacting to the viral report, the Group Chief Branding and Communications Officer of Dangote Group, Anthony Chiejina, via the statement denied any legal battle with the NNPC.

According to Dangote, the alleged report was an old one and would be fully and formally withdrawn when the matter comes up in court next year.

Dangote revealed that after the president’s directive, they have been in discussions with all parties involved.

Dismissing that no party has been served with court notice, Dangote emphasized that the discussions have made significant headway and there were no intentions of going to court.

The statement read, “This is an old issue that started in June and culminated in a matter being filed on September 6, 2024.

“Currently, the parties are in discussion since President Bola Tinubu’s directive on Crude Oil and Refined products sales in Naira Initiative, which was approved by the Federal Executive Council (FEC).

“We have made tremendous progress in that regard and events have overtaken this development. No party has been served with court processes and there is no intention of doing so. We have agreed to put a halt to the proceedings.

“It is important to stress that no orders have been made and there are no adverse effects on any party. We understand that once the matter comes up January 2025, we would be in a position to formally withdraw the matter in court.”

Investors King reported that following Dangote’s failure to meet petroleum demand by marketers in the country, the oil dealers returned to their former mode of buying the product outside the country and shipping them into Nigeria for sale.

According to the marketers, the move was an effort to save the country from fuel scarcity which Dangote’s inability to meet the supply demand may push the country into.

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Gold

Gold Soars to Record $2,740/oz as Investors Seek Safe Haven Amid Economic Uncertainty

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gold bars - Investors King

Gold surged to a new all-time high of $2,740/oz, reflecting heightened demand by genuine buyers who are actively building positions, signaling confidence in gold’s value preservation over time.

The metal’s appeal lies in its ability to provide stability in a relativity fluid macroeconomic environment. With the U.S. election on the horizon, investors are preparing for potential market shifts, which could sustain gold’s upward momentum.

Regardless of the election outcome, expanded fiscal spending appears unavoidable. A red sweep could prioritize defense spending and traditional energy investments while a blue sweep may bring more expansive social programs and green energy investments.

Both scenarios point toward fiscal expansion, which may pressure the U.S. dollar over time, thereby enhancing the appeal of gold.

As Asian currencies remain sensitive to dollar movements, we could see increased demand for gold from these markets as investors seek value protection amidst currency fluctuations.

Gold’s strong rally could extend further toward $2,800-$2,900/oz in the coming months, especially if geopolitical risks persist or market participants anticipate slower monetary tightening.

However, periods of consolidation might occur, especially if higher bond yields temporarily reduce gold’s allure.

Still, buying interest seems well-established, with many investors adopting an accumulate-on-dips approach. If volatility remains elevated and fiscal policies continue expanding, gold’s role as a long-term store of value may solidify further, potentially paving the way for new highs.

Written by Ahmad Assiri Research Strategist at Pepperstone

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Crude Oil

Oil Prices Jump 2% as Israel Heightens Attack in Middle East

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Crude oil - Investors King

Oil prices traded 2 percent higher on Monday as the fight in the Middle East ragged on amid heightened Israel retaliation against attacks by Iran earlier this month.

Brent crude rose by $1.23 or 1.68 per cent to close at $74.29 per barrel while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was $1.34 or 1.94 per cent higher at $70.56 a barrel.

On Monday Israel reportedly attacked hospitals and shelters for displaced people in the northern Gaza Strip as it continued its fight against Palestinian militants.

International media also reported that Israel carried out targeted strikes on sites belonging to Hezbollah’s funding arm in Lebanon.

Meanwhile, the US Secretary of State, Mr Antony Blinken said the Israel ally will push for a ceasefire as he embarks on a journey to the Middle East.

According to the US State Department, the American government will be seeking to kick-start negotiations to end the Gaza war and ensure it also defuses the possibility of escalation in Lebanon.

Mr Amos Hochstein, a US envoy, will hold talks with Lebanese officials in the Lebanon capital, Beirut on conditions for a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah.

Support also came from China, as the world’s largest oil importer cut its lending rate as part of efforts to stimulate the country’s economy and offer investors relief.

This development will soothe worries after data showed that China’s economy grew at the slowest pace since early 2023 in the third quarter, fuelling growing concerns about oil demand.

The head of the International Energy Agency (IEA), Mr Fatih Birol on Monday said China’s oil demand growth is expected to remain weak in 2025 despite recent stimulus measures from the government.

He said this is because the world’s second-largest economy has continued to accelerate its Electric Vehicles (EV) fleet and this is causing oil demand to grow at a slower pace.

Meanwhile, Saudi’s state oil company, Aramco remains fairly bullish in comparison as its Chief Executive Officer (CEO), Mr Amin Nasser said there is more demand for chemical projects on the sidelines of the Singapore International Energy Week conference.

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