Yields on Japan’s benchmark 10-year government bond fell below zero for the first time, as investors clamor for safe-haven assets in the wake of a global market rout.
The yield on the 10-year Japan government bond (JGB) dropped as low as negative 0.007 percent. The fall came on the heels of a global stock market sell-off overnight that likely spurred safe haven flows back into Japan. Bond prices move inversely to yields.
The U.S. five-year Treasury yield also fell to around 1.1112 percent in Asia trading hours, its lowest since June 2013, when markets convulsed during the taper tantrum after the U.S. Federal Reserve first broached the idea that it would be tapering its quantitative easing program. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell as low as levels around 1.6947 percent, a more than one-year low.
The 10-year JGB’s move to negative territory yield also follows the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) move to a negative interest rate policy, which can make the return on JGBs, even at a negative yields, as well as the possibility of further price rises, more attractive comparatively.
Amid a surge in market volatility, “people want to hold government bonds” for the safe-haven play, said Chris Weston, chief market strategist at spreadbettor IG. “It’s not a nice time to be in risk assets at the moment.”
But he added that the rush into JGBs isn’t just about seeking safe havens.
“(Japan policymakers) have been aggressive on the wires, jawboning the currency and giving the impression there’ll be more (easing) coming from the BOJ,” he said. “There’s a large consensus for further action.”
Japan’s Finance Minister Taro Aso said Tuesday that the yen’s moves were “rough,” adding that he’ll be watching it closely, Reuters reported. The dollar was fetching as few as 114.22 yen in Asia trade Tuesday, dropping sharply — and quickly — from levels over 120 yen early last week. The yen is seeing inflows as it’s considered a safe-haven currency.
A stronger yen is a concern for Japan Inc., as it makes the country’s exports less competitive and dents company earnings when overseas revenue is translated back into the home currency.
The 10-year JGB’s move into negative yields had been expected ever since the BOJ adopted the negative rate policy.
Deutsche Bank last week forecast 10-year JGB to trade in a range of negative 0.05 to positive 0.15 percent for the time being. Capital Economics tips the bond yield to fall to negative 0.25 percent by the end of 2016.
Yields on shorter-dated bonds were already negative in Japan, as well as in many countries in the euro zone, where the European Central Bank has flooded financial markets with cash. Nearly 70 percent of the JGBs in the market already offer negative yields, the Nikkei Asian Review reported last week.
However, a yield below zero on 10-year bonds is rare. Switzerland 10-year bonds currently yield around negative 0.335 percent, although the country’s bond market is smaller than Japan’s.
A negative yield on a bond – which means investors are effectively paying for the privilege of lending Japan’s government money – suggests continued strong demand for JGBs.
The latest driver for the rally in bond prices (and the decline in yields) was the January 29 move by the BOJ to adopt negative interest rates for the first time. The central bank said it would apply a rate of negative 0.1 percent to excess reserves that financial institutional held with it, effective February 16.
That nontraditional policy change may also be unsettling markets.
“I think that central banks are re-writing the Econ textbook. The problem is its unclear how this story ends, but history would suggest this is not a sustainable trend,” said hedge fund manager Brian Kelly of BKCM LLC.
—By CNBC.Com’s Leslie Shaffer; Follow her on Twitter @LeslieShaffer1
Communities in Delta State Shut OML30 Operates by Heritage Energy Operational Services Ltd
The OML30 operated by Heritage Energy Operational Services Limited in Delta State has been shut down by the host communities for failing to meet its obligations to the 112 host communities.
The host communities, led by its Management Committee/President Generals, had accused the company of gross indifference and failure in its obligations to the host communities despite several meetings and calls to ensure a peaceful resolution.
The station with a production capacity of 80,000 barrels per day and eight flow stations operates within the Ughelli area of Delta State.
The host communities specifically accused HEOSL of failure to pay the GMOU fund for the last two years despite mediation by the Delta State Government on May 18, 2020.
Also, the host communities accused HEOSL of ‘total stoppage of scholarship award and payment to host communities since 2016’.
The Chairman, Dr Harrison Oboghor and Secretary, Mr Ibuje Joseph that led the OML30 host communities explained to journalists on Monday that the host communities had resolved not to backpedal until all their demands were met.
Crude Oil Recovers from 4 Percent Decline as Joe Biden Wins
Oil Prices Recover from 4 Percent Decline as Joe Biden Wins
Crude oil prices rose with other financial markets on Monday following a 4 percent decline on Friday.
This was after Joe Biden, the former Vice-President and now the President-elect won the race to the White House.
Global benchmark oil, Brent crude oil, gained $1.06 or 2.7 percent to $40.51 per barrel on Monday while the U.S West Texas Intermediate crude oil gained $1.07 or 2.9 percent to $38.21 per barrel.
On Friday, Brent crude oil declined by 4 percent as global uncertainty surged amid unclear US election and a series of negative comments from President Trump. However, on Saturday when it became clear that Joe Biden has won, global financial markets rebounded in anticipation of additional stimulus given Biden’s position on economic growth and recovery.
“Trading this morning has a risk-on flavor, reflecting increasing confidence that Joe Biden will occupy the White House, but the Republican Party will retain control of the Senate,” Michael McCarthy, chief market strategist at CMC Markets in Sydney.
“The outcome is ideal from a market point of view. Neither party controls the Congress, so both trade wars and higher taxes are largely off the agenda.”
The president-elect and his team are now working on mitigating the risk of COVID-19, grow the world’s largest economy by protecting small businesses and the middle class that is the backbone of the American economy.
“There will be some repercussions further down the road,” said OCBC’s economist Howie Lee, raising the possibility of lockdowns in the United States under Biden.
“Either you’re crimping energy demand or consumption behavior.”
Nigeria, Other OPEC Members Oil Revenue to Hit 18 Year Low in 2020
Revenue of OPEC Members to Drop to 18 Year Low in 2020
The United States Energy Information Administration (EIA) has predicted that the oil revenue of members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will decline to 18-year low in 2020.
EIA said their combined oil export revenue will plunge to its lowest level since 2002. It proceeded to put a value to the projection by saying members of the oil cartel would earn around $323 billion in net oil export in 2020.
“If realised, this forecast revenue would be the lowest in 18 years. Lower crude oil prices and lower export volumes drive this expected decrease in export revenues,” it said.
The oil expert based its projection on weak global oil demand and low oil prices because of COVID-19.
It said this coupled with production cuts by OPEC members in recent months will impact net revenue of the cartel in 2020.
It said, “OPEC earned an estimated $595bn in net oil export revenues in 2019, less than half of the estimated record high of $1.2tn, which was earned in 2012.
“Continued declines in revenue in 2020 could be detrimental to member countries’ fiscal budgets, which rely heavily on revenues from oil sales to import goods, fund social programmes, and support public services.”
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