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Asian Stocks Gain on Move by China’s Central Bank, but Trade War Weighs

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  • Asian Stocks Gain on Move by China’s Central Bank, but Trade War Weighs

Asian stocks rose on Monday after China’s central bank took steps to try to drag the yuan away from 14-month lows, but the tit-for-tat conflict over Sino-U.S. trade hung heavily on markets.

The People’s Bank of China late on Friday raised the reserve requirement on foreign exchange forward positions, making it more expensive to bet against the Chinese currency.

The move boosted the Australian dollar, which is often played as a liquid proxy for the yuan. The Aussie came off two-week lows to climb as high as $0.7412 after the announcement, and was last at $0.7396.

Analysts say the step by the PBOC will be generally positive for Asian assets.

“Leaning against bearish CNY sentiment is important because a rapidly weakening currency risks triggering residential outflows and destabilizing domestic asset prices,” JPMorgan analysts said in a note.

“Our economists think that PBOC likely will take further action if CNY depreciation continues or capital outflow pressure increases.”

On Monday, MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan climbed 0.2 percent for a second straight session of gains.

Japan’s Nikkei edged up 0.1 percent, while Australian shares added 0.5 percent. South Korea’s KOSPI index rose 0.4 percent.

On Wall Street, the Dow climbed 0.54 percent, the S&P 500 gained 0.46 percent and the Nasdaq Composite added 0.12 percent. They were helped by strong corporate earnings, although gains were capped by worries over the escalating trade tensions.

China’s finance ministry proposed tariffs on $60 billion worth of U.S. goods on Friday, while a senior Chinese diplomat cast doubt on prospects of talks with Washington to resolve the bitter trade conflict.

That was followed by a report in China’s state media saying Friday’s retaliatory tariffs were “rational” while accusing the United States of blackmail.

At the same time, U.S. President Donald Trump said his strategy of placing steep tariffs on Chinese imports is “working far better than anyone ever anticipated”, citing losses in China’s stock market. He predicted the U.S. market could “go up dramatically” once trade deals were renegotiated.

“Our economists consider that escalation in tension may bring the U.S. and China back to the negotiation table, but that even if negotiations are resumed, a bumpy and lengthy process is likely to ensue as the two sides remain very far apart,” JPMorgan added.

According to Bespoke Investment Group, mentions of tariffs in S&P 500 company earnings reports for the second quarter have more than doubled from the first quarter of this year.

In currencies, the dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, was up 0.1 percent at 95.259.

Traders see further upside in the dollar as they maintained a significantly large long position on the currency, while net short bets on the Aussie were their largest since November 2015.

The British pound held at $1.30 after falling to an 11-day low of $1.2975 following remarks by Bank of England Governor Mark Carney that Britain faced an “uncomfortably high” risk of a “no deal” Brexit.

The euro inched down to more than 5-week lows of $1.1573.

Gold bounced from near 17-month lows after weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data, and was last up 0.1 percent at $1,213.70.

Meanwhile, Brent crude futures were off 2 cents at $73.19, while U.S. crude oil futures were up 9 cents at $68.58 a barrel.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Crude Oil

NNPC and Newcross Set to Boost Awoba Unit Field Production to 12,000 bpd

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NNPC - Investors King

NNPC and Newcross Exploration and Production Ltd are working together to increase production at the Awoba Unit Field to 12,000 barrels per day (bpd) within the next 30 days.

This initiative, aimed at optimizing hydrocarbon asset production, follows the recent restart of operations at the Awoba field, which commenced this month after a hiatus.

The field, located in the mangrove swamp south of Port Harcourt, Rivers State, ceased production in 2021 due to logistical challenges and crude oil theft.

The joint venture between NNPC and Newcross is poised to bolster national revenue and meet OPEC production quotas, contributing significantly to Nigeria’s energy sector.

Mele Kyari, NNPC’s Group Chief Executive Officer, attributes this achievement to a conducive operating environment fostered by the administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

The endeavor underscores a collective effort involving stakeholders from various sectors, including staff, operators, host communities, and security agencies, aimed at revitalizing Nigeria’s oil and gas sector.

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Gold

Gold Prices Slide Below $2,300 as Investors Digest Fed’s Rate Outlook

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Amidst a backdrop of global economic shifts and geopolitical recalibration, gold prices dipped below the $2,300 price level.

The decline comes as investors carefully analyse signals from the Federal Reserve regarding its future interest rate policies.

After reaching record highs earlier this month, gold suffered its most daily decline in nearly two years, shedding 2.7% on Monday.

The recent retreat reflects a multifaceted landscape where concerns over escalating tensions in the Middle East have eased, coupled with indications that the Federal Reserve may maintain higher interest rates for a prolonged period.

Richard Grace, a senior currency analyst and international economist at ITC Markets, noted that tactical short-selling likely contributed to the decline, especially given the rapid surge in gold prices witnessed recently.

Despite this setback, bullion remains up approximately 15% since mid-February, supported by ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, central bank purchases, and robust demand from Chinese consumers.

The shift in focus among investors now turns toward forthcoming US economic data, including key inflation metrics favored by the Federal Reserve.

These data points are anticipated to provide further insights into the central bank’s monetary policy trajectory.

Over recent weeks, policymakers have adopted a more hawkish tone in response to consistently strong inflation reports, leading market participants to adjust their expectations regarding the timing of future interest rate adjustments.

As markets recalibrate their expectations for monetary policy, the prospect of a higher-for-longer interest rate environment poses challenges for gold, which traditionally does not offer interest-bearing returns.

Spot gold prices dropped by 1.2% to $2,298.67 an ounce, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index remaining relatively stable. Silver, palladium, and platinum also experienced declines following gold’s retreat.

The ongoing interplay between economic indicators, geopolitical developments, and central bank policies continues to shape the trajectory of precious metal markets.

While gold faces near-term headwinds, its status as a safe-haven asset and store of value ensures that it remains a focal point for investors navigating uncertain global dynamics.

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Crude Oil

Oil Prices Hold Firm Despite Middle East Tensions

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Despite ongoing tensions in the Middle East, oil prices remained resilient, holding steady above key levels on Tuesday.

Brent crude oil traded above $87 a barrel after a slight dip of 0.3% on the previous trading day, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) hovered around $82 a barrel.

The stability in oil prices comes amidst a backdrop of positive sentiment across global markets, with signs of strength in various sectors countering concerns about geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

One of the factors supporting oil prices is the weakening of the US dollar, which makes commodities priced in the currency more attractive to international investors.

Concurrently, equities experienced gains, contributing to the overall positive market sentiment.

However, geopolitical risks persist as Israel intensifies efforts to eliminate what it claims is the last stronghold of Hamas in Gaza and secure the release of remaining hostages.

These actions are expected to keep tensions elevated in the region, adding uncertainty to oil markets.

Despite the geopolitical tensions, options markets have shown a more optimistic outlook in recent days regarding the potential for a spike in oil prices. This suggests that market participants are cautiously optimistic about the resolution of conflicts in the region.

Despite the lingering risks, oil prices have remained below the $90 per barrel price level, a level that many analysts consider significant, particularly as the summer months approach, typically known as the peak demand season for oil.

While prices have experienced some volatility, they have yet to reach the $90 threshold, prompting expectations of further increases later in the year.

Jeff Currie, chief strategy officer of energy pathways at Carlyle Group, expressed confidence in the potential for oil prices to surpass $100 per barrel, citing tight market conditions indicated by timespreads.

However, he also noted the importance of monitoring OPEC’s response to rising prices, as the organization may adjust production levels to stabilize the market.

Overall, while geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to pose risks to oil markets, the resilience of oil prices amidst these challenges underscores the complex interplay of global factors influencing commodity markets.

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