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Nigeria Economic Outlook in The Next 4 yrs – NBS

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Nigeria economic outlook

Amidst several projections of challenging economy in the year 2016 by many economists and the International Monetary Fund, IMF, the National Bureau of Statistics, NBS, has outlined its own position on all key economic indicators, not just for 2016 but also in the next four years to 2019.

The projections covers the annual growth rate of real Gross Domestic Products, GDP, annual Inflation rate, and the annual growth rate of the Value of Total Trade, VTT.

Gross Domestic Product, GDP

In a report released last weekend NBS said “growth in 2016 is expected to be tepid at best”. Economic tepidity is one characterised by dull activities in key market segments and performance areas. NBS’ prediction was based on the happenings in the economy recently especially in 2015 marked by huge negative impact of its dependency on oil revenue amidst price shocks.

It noted “years prior to 2015, the Nigerian economy was largely supported by the non-oil sector as supply disruptions hampered oil output. In 2015 however, various factors including political uncertainty prior to and six months after the elections, and intermittent supply shocks of refined petroleum products, and others weighted on both oil and non-oil output. The entire economy took a hit”.

Consequently GDP which is the key indicator of economic health of a country was on the downside, declining in the first and second quarter with marginal recovery in the third quarter 2015.

However, NBS stated that “in 2016, the economy is expected to grow by 3.78 per cent, as output in the oil and non-oil sectors are expected to perform marginally better relative to 2015”. According to the Bureau, Federal Government’s main economic research agency, “the declines in prices of crude oil and related refined products give the Nigerian government the opportunity for some potential savings as subsidies payments on PMS and other refined products may be diverted into more productive aspects of the economy”.

It noted that “the government has taken a step further to repeal subsidies on kerosene products. As it stands there are no subsidies on PMS and this should bode well for government coffers going forward. “In the near term, support to the non-oil sector is expected to come through initiatives by the Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN, and the Government at Federal and State levels.

“One of such initiatives is the N300 billion Naira export stimulation fund by the CBN. Increased efforts by State governments to boost internally-generated revenue, when combined with more prudent and targeted infrastructure spending, is likely to lead to better output performance”.

Going forward NBS said the 2017 to 2019 period is expected to reap the benefits of the extra N1.6 trillion into capital expenditures in the 2016 budget, adding that in particular, plans by the government authorities to increase power supply by developing critical infrastructure to transport gas to the power plants in order to add 2,000 mega watts to the country’s stock of power within the next 12 to 15 months will have multiplier effects on both the manufacturing and services sectors.

NBS stated “other measures expected to spur growth include fiscal measures such as the implementation of the Treasury Single Account, TSA, improvements in tax collection efforts and the creation of an Efficiency Unit in the Federal Ministry of Finance to ensure that scarce resources are adequately deployed. With hopes on the salutary effects of these measures NBS said over the 2017 to 2019 period, growth is expected to average 5.42 per cent.

Inflationary Pressures

Another key economic variable examined and projected by NBS is the inflation rate. In this report NBS has projected that inflation may rise to 10.16 by end of 2016.

But it also indicated a gradual decline such that over the 2017 to 2019 period, inflation is expected to average 9.01 per cent. NBS’s outlook for the previous year predicted that curbing inflation would be harder to achieve as a result of the devaluation of the Naira, which occurred in November 2014. Indeed the first half of the year recorded more macroeconomic volatility as the headline rate, year-on-year, recorded a wider range relative to the second half of the year.

In the Second half of the year speculative pressure on the Naira compounded supply shocks exhibited in the first half of the year. Though administrative measures by the CBN helped curb some inflationary pressure, according to NBS, speculative pressure on the Naira is likely to exist in 2016 in light of the current state of foreign reserves.

The Bureau noted, ‘’while administrative measures will help provide some cover, the downside risk of such measures is that by making imported goods more difficult to obtain, they increase the price of such goods, leading to higher inflation. “We expect that the Central Bank’s adjustment of the foreign exchange management framework will be steady in the year and will thus mean a gradual easing in prices beyond 2016”.

Value of Total Trade

2015 saw a decline in both the values of imports and exports. Exports were weighed upon by the decline in the price of crude, while overall sluggish growth as well as foreign exchange restrictions weighted on the value of imports. NBS stated that “going forward the relative lower price of the Naira is expected to result in cheaper prices of non-oil exports, and again curb increases in imports. “Nevertheless, Value of Total Trade is forecast to increase on the margin, increasing by 2.41 per cent as Imports increase by 2.88 per cent and exports increase by 2.16 per cent.

“Beyond 2016, a stabilization in oil prices while not expected to reach 2014 levels in the medium term in combination with a more competitive economy is expected to yield a rebound in both imports and exports.

“Total Trade is projected to increase by 2.41 per cent in 2016, and grow by an average 15.62 per cent yearly over the forecast period 2017 to 2019”.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Economy

Nigeria’s Plan to Review Oil Companies’ Gas Flaring Strategies

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Oil

Nigeria is ramping up its efforts to address environmental concerns in the oil and gas sector with a comprehensive plan to review gas flaring strategies of international and indigenous oil companies.

The Minister of State for Environment, Dr. Iziaq Salako, announced this initiative during a national stakeholders engagement meeting on methane mitigation and reduction held in Abuja, Investors King reports.

Gas flaring, a common practice in the oil industry, releases methane—a potent greenhouse gas—into the atmosphere, contributing to climate change and posing health risks to communities near oil facilities.

Nigeria aims to end routine gas flaring by 2030, aligning with global climate goals and commitments.

Dr. Salako explained the importance of reducing methane emissions and highlighted the detrimental effects on public health, food security, and economic development.

He outlined practical steps being taken to tackle methane emissions, including the development of methane guidelines and the engagement of government institutions.

The ministry, through the National Oil Spill Detection and Response Agency, will conduct periodic reviews of oil companies’ plans to ensure compliance with the gas flaring deadline.

Deloitte management consultants will assist in conducting comprehensive forensic audits to scrutinize the legitimacy of forward-contracted transactions.

President Bola Tinubu’s commitment to environmental sustainability underscores the government’s dedication to addressing climate change and fulfilling its multilateral environmental agreements.

The engagement event served as a platform for stakeholders to discuss methane mitigation strategies, existing policies, and implementation challenges.

Collaboration and dialogue among diverse sectors are crucial in charting a unified course towards sustainable methane reduction in Nigeria’s oil and gas industry.

As the country navigates its environmental agenda, ensuring accountability and transparency in gas flaring practices remains paramount for achieving a greener and healthier future.

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Economy

Interest Rate Jumps to 24.75% as CBN Takes Aggressive Stance Against Inflation

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Dr. Olayemi Michael Cardoso

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has announced a significant increase in the monetary policy rate, known as the interest rate, to 24.75%.

This move disclosed by CBN Governor Olayemi Cardoso during the 294th Meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee press briefing in Abuja, represents a bold step by the apex bank to address the mounting inflationary pressures faced by the country.

With inflation soaring to 31.70% in February, the CBN aims to moderate this upward trend by tightening its monetary policy stance.

This decision follows the previous hike in the interest rate to 22.75% in February, showcasing the CBN’s commitment to combatting inflationary forces.

While the bank opted to maintain the Cash Reserve Ratio at 45%, the significant increase in the interest rate underscores the urgency of the situation and the need for decisive action.

Governor Cardoso emphasized that these measures are essential to stabilize the economy and safeguard the purchasing power of the Nigerian currency.

The 294th MPC marks the second meeting under Governor Cardoso’s leadership, indicating a proactive approach to addressing economic challenges.

The next MPC meeting is scheduled for May 20th and 21st, 2024, highlighting the ongoing commitment of the CBN to navigate Nigeria’s economic landscape amidst inflationary pressures.

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Economy

Nigeria Braces for 10th Consecutive Interest Rate Hike by Central Bank

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Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN)

As Nigeria grapples with persistently high inflation, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is gearing up to implement its tenth consecutive interest rate hike in a bid to curb the soaring prices and attract investment.

Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg are anticipating a substantial 125 basis-point increase in the key rate to 24%, marking one of the most significant adjustments in the current tightening cycle.

The decision, expected to be announced by Governor Olayemi Cardoso on Tuesday at 2 p.m. in Abuja, comes on the heels of inflation accelerating to 31.7% in February, far surpassing the central bank’s target range of 9%.

This surge has been primarily attributed to the sharp depreciation of the naira, prompting authorities to devalue the currency twice since June to narrow the gap with the unofficial market rate and encourage investor confidence.

While these measures have seen the naira strengthen in recent days and bolstered investment inflows, including a fourfold increase in overseas remittances and significant foreign investor portfolio asset purchases, there remains a palpable need for more decisive action.

Giulia Pellegrini, a senior portfolio manager at Allianz Global Investors, emphasized the necessity for the CBN to intensify its tightening efforts to regain foreign investors’ confidence in the local bond market.

While acknowledging the positive strides made by the central bank, Pellegrini stressed the importance of a more assertive approach to prevent the diversion of investor attention to other frontier markets.

As the Nigerian economy navigates through these challenging times, the impending interest rate hike signals the CBN’s determination to address inflation head-on and foster a more stable economic environment.

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