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Iron Ore Exporter Predicts Prices to Fall 19% in 2016

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Iron ore

The world’s biggest iron ore exporter cut its price forecast for next year by 19 percent as supplies continue to swell and slowing growth in China hurts demand in the biggest user.

Prices will average $41.30 a metric ton in 2016 compared with $51.20 forecast in September, Australia’s Department of Industry & Science said in a quarterly outlook Tuesday. The department cut its average price for 2015 by 4.7 percent to $50.40 a ton.

Iron ore, the country’s largest export earner, lost 43 percent this year as low-cost miners including Rio Tinto Group, BHP Billiton Ltd. and Vale SA pressed ahead with expansions to defend market share, feeding a glut as demand in China faltered. Exports of Australian iron ore will probably expand a further 13 percent next year after rising about 7 percent this year, according to the department.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. has predicted the price will remain under $40 for the next three years as China’s slowdown forces the global industry into a long period of hibernation.

“Increasing supply from Australia and Brazil is forecast to drive seaborne iron ore spot prices down in 2015 and 2016,” the department said. “Overcapacity in China’s steel industry is expected to exert downward pressure on steel prices and reduce the incentive to increase output.”

Price projections by the department refer to spot ore with 62 percent content free-on-board Australia. The raw material delivered to Qingdao, China, advanced 0.9 percent to $40.46 a dry ton on Monday, according to Metal Bulletin Ltd. Iron ore bottomed at $38.30 on Dec. 11, a record in daily prices dating back to May 2009.

 

Is the CEO and Founder of Investors King Limited. He is a seasoned foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Business Insider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and other prominent platforms. With over two decades of experience in global financial markets, Olukoya is well-recognized in the industry.

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Petrol

There Won’t Be Fuel Scarcity In Nearest Future, Major Marketers Assure Nigerians

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petrol

Nigerians have been urged to refrain from panic purchase of Premium Motor Spirit popularly known as petrol.

Major petroleum marketers made this known while assuring the public that there is more than enough petrol supply across the country.

The Chief Executive Officer of the Major Energy Marketers Association of Nigeria, Clement Isong, maintained that sufficient stock is available in the tanks of the Dangote Refinery and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited.

Isong added that there is a reliable forecast of future supplies for all petroleum products.

Reacting to perceived tightening in the petroleum supply market, the major energy marketers dismissed speculation that there would be shortage of fuel, affirming to the general public and all stakeholders that there is substantial stocks of products in their tanks.

He added that they have access to considerable stocks in the tanks of their suppliers, including Dangote Refinery and NNPC Trading Limited, along with a reliable forecast of future supplies for all petroleum products.

Isong noted that deregulation enables diligent marketers to plan and secure their supply needs in advance, helping prevent shortages.

Consequently, he stated that MEMAN does not anticipate any petrol scarcity in the immediate or near future.

Encouraging Nigerians to refrain from panic buying, the MEMAN CEO assured them that member companies will continue to optimise their supply and logistics to ensure availability and affordability.

Following the NNPC’s increase in petrol prices across the country on Tuesday, long queues were observed at its retail outlets in Lagos and Abuja on Wednesday.

The national oil firm raised the retail price of petrol in Abuja from N1,030 to N1,060 per litre, while in Lagos, the price increased from N998 to N1,025 per litre, sparking widespread criticism from the Organised Private Sector, Civil Society Organisations, and the general public.

Nigerians have faced recurring fuel crises since May this year for various reasons despite government promises to resolve the situation.

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Crude Oil

Oil Prices Rise 2% on Positive Crude Inventories Data, Tight Supply Expectations

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Crude oil gains

Oil prices rose more than 2 percent on Wednesday after data showed crude and inventories fell unexpectedly last week and reports that the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, OPEC+ may delay a planned oil output increase.

Brent crude futures settled up $1.43, or 2.01 percent, at $72.55 a barrel and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose $1.4, or 2.08 percent to $68.61.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported an inventory draw of a modest half a million barrels for the week to October 25.

The change in oil stocks compared with a build of 5.5 million barrels for the previous week, pressured oil prices at the time.

The American Petroleum Institute (API), meanwhile, on Tuesday reported estimated inventory draws across crude and fuels, helping prices move higher for a time. However, they remained subdued due to expectations of a ceasefire in the Middle East.

The country’s petrol stocks shed 2.7 million barrels in the week to October 25, with production at an average of 9.7 million barrels daily. These figures compared with an inventory build of 900,000 barrels for the previous week, when production stood at an average of 10 million barrels daily.

Pressure also came as the market learned that OPEC+ could delay a planned oil production increase in December by a month or more because of concern over soft oil demand and rising supply.

Traders are betting that OPEC+ will hold off on the planned increase, deferring to Saudi Arabia’s top-down approach since the country acts as the de facto leader of the group and has always stepped in to help the alliance when it is underperforming.

The group is scheduled to raise output by 180,000 barrels per day in December. OPEC+ has cut output by 5.86 million barrels per day, equivalent to about 5.7 per cent of global oil demand.

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report downgraded demand growth for 2024 to 1.9 million barrels per day while demand forecasts for 2025 slipped another 102,000 barrels per day to 1.6 million barrels per day.

China, meanwhile, ramped up imports by 16 per cent month over month in August, but the rise still falls short of August 2023 levels, keeping a lid on demand and by extension, the market.

OPEC+ is scheduled to meet on December 1 to decide its next policy steps.

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Energy

Dangote’s Allegation of Refinery Boycott By Marketers False, Says  IPMAN President

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Petrol Importation - investorsking.com

The President of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN), Abubakar Garima, has expressed shock over business mogul, Aliko Dangote’s allegation that marketers were boycotting his refinery.

Dangote, the owner of a $20bn refinery had claimed that oil marketers in Nigeria have been avoiding his refinery for imported petrol.

He had lamented that such a move would impact negatively on the country’s economy and would discourage local investment.

Responding, however, IPMAN President said the allegations were false.

According to Garima, while speaking on a live telephone programme monitored by Investors King on Wednesday, IPMAN members are not importing petrol.

On the contrary, he disclosed that oil members can’t load petrol from the Dangote Refinery in Lagos despite having paid ₦40billion to the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL).

He said rather than get Dangote petrol through the NNPCL, the private refinery should register independent petrol marketers directly for smooth loading of the product.

The IPMAN boss noted that if Dangote could be able to sell the product to oil marketers directly, they can buy the product.

He expressed frustration in the fact that marketers had to pay before they pick, adding that “Presently, we have ₦40bn under the NNPCL custody but we cannot source the product.”

Garima explained how some marketers that NNPCL sent to load in Dangote refinery stayed with their trucks for four days, and they cannot load.

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