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Inflation Rate Predicted to Reduce Further in April

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  • Inflation Rate Predicted to Reduce Further in April

The year-on-year inflation rate has been predicted to drop further in April.

According to analysts at FSDH Merchant Bank Limited, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is anticipated to drop to 17.11 per cent in April, from the 17.26 per cent recorded in the month of March 2017. FSDH Merchant, which stated this in its latest inflation forecast noted that although it noticed increases in the prices of food and non-food classification for the fourth consecutive month, the base effect in the CCPI in April 2016 will be responsible for the drop in the inflation rate.

Based on the data release calendar on the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) website, the bureau is expected to release the inflation rate for the month of April 2017 next week.

“Our analysis indicates that the value of the naira appreciated at the inter-bank market, while it depreciated at the parallel market. The naira gained by 0.16 per cent at the inter-bank market to close at US$/N305.85 while it lost 0.25 per cent at the parallel market to close at US$/N396 at the end of April.

“The fall in the international prices of food helped to counter the effect of the depreciation in the value of the naira at the parallel market. The appreciation of the naira in the inter-bank market and the drop in the prices of food at the international market led to a moderation in the prices of consumer goods in Nigeria,” the firm added.

It further stated that its model indicated that the general price movements in the consumer goods and services in April 2017 would increase the Composite Consumer Price Index (CCPI) to 226.01 points, representing a month-on-month increase of 1.48 per cent.

Similarly, the Economic Intelligence Group of Access Bank Plc has estimated that inflation rate (year-on-year) to trend downwards. But the bank in a report predicted 17.05 per cent in April 2017, from the 17.3 per cent posted in March 2017.

“As usual, our methodology adopts an autoregressive analysis of past prices, while it recognises all the assumptions used by the NBS in its computation of monthly CCPI. The expected moderation in inflation is chiefly attributable to an anticipated downward movement in the food and core sub-indexes.

“Price movements for major commodity groups in the food basket, which makes up over half of the CPI basket, remained muted in April. Based on an independent survey, vegetable oils, rice, and flour trended downwards, while the price of garri, potatoes and noodles were stable.

“Core inflation, which excludes the prices of volatile agricultural produce, is expected to extend its downward trend in April. This partially reflects the effects of currency appreciation in the parallel market. Month-on-month, the naira appreciated by 8.32 per cent as the Central Bank maintained the tempo of interventions in the forex market.

The monthly Food Price Index (FPI) that the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) released recently showed that the Index averaged 168 points, 1.84 per cent lower than the revised value for March 2017, but 9.93 per cent higher than the April 2016 figure.

According to the FAO, sugar prices dropped the most, vegetable oils, dairy and cereal prices also declined. However, prices of meat continued to trend upward since the beginning of the year. The continued weak global import demand and improved supply conditions in the main sugar producing regions continued to weigh on the prices of sugar. Hence, the FAO Sugar Price Index fell by 9.07 per cent in April 2017 to a 12-month low.

The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index was down by 3.92 per cent, driven by a fall in prices of palm and soy-oil, the key commodities in the Index.

The FAO Dairy Price Index fell by 3.28 per cent from March 2017 to April 2017. Milk powders and cheese were the main commodities affected. Butter prices on the other hand, rose amid reduced exports.

The FAO Cereal Price Index declined by 1.2 per cent from the previous month, due to the continued fall in the prices of wheat. Good production prospects in 2017/18 season continued to weigh on the prices of most cereals.

CEO/Founder Investors King Ltd, a foreign exchange research analyst, contributing author on New York-based Talk Markets and Investing.com, with over a decade long experience in the global financial market.

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Economy

Oil Prices Decline on Rising COVID-19 Cases

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Global Oil Prices Dipped on Friday as New COVID-19 Cases Jump Globally

Global oil prices decline on Friday as the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases surged across the world.

Brent crude oil, against which Nigerian oil is priced, declined from $43.47 per barrel it traded on Thursday during the Asian trading session to $41.60 per barrel on Friday at around 11:39 am Nigerian time.

global Oil prices While the price of US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil dipped from $40.97 per barrel it traded on Thursday to $38.78 on Friday.

Oil traders and investors are worried that the rising number of COVID-19 new cases would disrupt demand for the commodity and force refineries to shut down once again.

“I do not suspect many oil traders will be looking to place significant bids in the market today, suggesting prices may continue to wallow into the weekend,” said Stephen Innes, chief global markets strategist at AxiCorp.

Despite efforts by both OPEC plus and other top oil producers to halt falling oil prices and reduce global oil glut, the lack of a cure for COVID-19 remained global concerns.

As previously stated on this platform, until a cure is found the world would have to find a way to either work through COVID-19 or shut down activities completely.

This is coming a day after the Federal Government of Nigeria announced that it was putting school resumption plan on hold following the latest COVID-19 report that shows Nigeria’s confirmed cases crossed 30,000 on Wednesday.

In the United States, more than 60,000 new COVID-19 cases were reported on Thursday, forcing lawmakers to start contemplating the second phase of COVID-19 lockdown.

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Economy

We Are Losing N13.9bn Monthly Because FG Caps Tariff – Discos

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Discos Says it is Losing N14bn Monthly Because of NERC Capped Tariff

The Nigerian power Distribution Companies (Discos) have said they a losing N13.9 billion in revenue every month because the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission, limited how much they can charge for consumption.

Ernest Mupwaya, the Managing Director, Abuja Electricity Distribution Company, made the statement during a presentation on behalf of the Discos to the House of Representatives Committee on Power.

The statement was after the Discos demanded realistic indices before the implementation of the proposed service reflective tariff, which was supposed to be implemented on July 1.

Mupwaya said there were some outstanding requirements before the service reflective tariff could be implemented.

“One of them is the removal of estimated billing caps. The financial impact of the Capping Order is an average loss of N13.9bn monthly, thereby, undermining or jeopardising the minimum remittance requirement,” Mupwaya stated.

The July 1 service tariff implementation was halted by members of the National Assembly, who prevailed on the Discos to shelve the date to the first quarter of 2021 due to the current economic challenges in Nigeria.

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Economy

Gbajabiamila Says Nigeria Can’t Compete in AfCFTA With Weak Industries

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Nigeria Must Ramp up Industrialisation to Prevent Dumping by Other Nations

The Speaker of the House of Representatives, Femi Gbajabiamila, has said the nation can not compete effectively in the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) with weak industrialisation and manufacturing activities.

Gbajabiamila disclosed this while receiving Adesoji Adesugba, the newly appointed Managing Director of the Nigeria Export Processing Zones Authority.

The details of the visit were made public on Thursday in a statement titled, “AFCFTA: House Speaker tasks Nigeria on industrialisation through free trade zones.”

Gbajabiamila was quoted as saying “We must act proactively so that we don’t become a dumping ground for other African nations.

“Our best option in this circumstance is to immediately set machinery in motion to ensure the effective functioning and flourishing of our export processing zones.

“We must remove all bottlenecks and perfect all stumbling blocks. We will then be fully prepared for AfCFTA and also generate massive jobs for our unemployed youths and enhance our foreign earnings.”

He added that the nation must as a matter of national emergency ramp up industrialisation through free trade zones and other effective means to compete with South Africa, Africa’s most industrialised economy and other African nations.

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