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Forex Weekly Outlook June 27 – July 1

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Euro currency

Global financial markets were thrown into turmoil after the U.K. exit the world’s biggest market, the European Union. Pushing the pound to over 30-year low against the US dollar as investors scramble for haven assets.

The risk was further compounded by the decision of Prime Minister David Cameron and the British representative to the European Union Jonathan Hill to resign following Brexit. It is yet unknown when the UK will trigger article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty and get on with the exit process, which could take between 2 to 5 years, but the Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney in his post-Brexit statement said the apex bank has prepared for this day and as such has made provision for about 600 billion pounds to support the UK financial system and strengthens businesses to create jobs and enhance growth going forward.

On the other hand, the American labor market rebounded last week after May’s weaker than expected non-farm payroll, the unemployment claims improved by 18,000 to 259,000, which suggest moderate growth in the second quarter of the year. Although there were weakness in the housing and manufacturing sectors, but was overshadowed by the increase in demand for the US dollars due to Brexit.

On BOJ, the continuous rush for haven assets has compounded Japan’s situation, while Japan Finance Minister Taro Aso has repeatedly said the yen move is one sided,  I don’t think G7 and G20 will give BOJ go ahead to intervene in the yen’s gains, considering global Risks.

This week, US first quarter final GDP, US consumer confidence index, US crude oil inventories, UK current account, Canada monthly GDP, US unemployment claims and purchasing Manager indexes (China, US, UK) are key economic factors to look out for. Here are my forex weekly pick EURUSD, AUDJPY and NZDJPY.

EURUSD

EURUSDWeekly

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For the past two weeks I have been bearish on EURUSD but the global uncertainties weigh upon it, hence, the pullback before last week bearish confirmation. As long as price remains below 1.1338, I am bearish on EURUSD but with entry around 1.1090, that double as our target two weeks ago and also a price continuation below the channel. Target for the week will be 1.0714, while keeping an eye on global growth as things unfold in coming days.

AUDJPY

AUDJPYWeekly

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The same two weeks ago I made mention of AUDJPY pair, although our target was hit at 75.83. The pair still holds considerable sell potential of around 272 pips. I remain bearish on AUDJPY as long as 78.15 resistance level holds, with 73.54 as the target.

NZDJPY

NZDJPYDaily

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After failing to sustain a break of the downward trendline started since last year. The pair has finally given in to Brexit pressure reach over 4-year low on Friday. This week, as long as 73.90 resistance level first established in 2008 hold. I am bearish on this pair with 69.94 as the target.

This should be traded with great caution as high volatility is expected across the board this week as investors try to decipher both ECB and BOE direction going forward. All take profit targets were hit last week.

CEO/Founder Investors King Ltd, a foreign exchange research analyst, contributing author on New York-based Talk Markets and Investing.com, with over a decade experience in the global financial markets.

Forex

Naira Remains Flat Against US Dollar, Euro

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500 and 1000 naira bills (Nigerian currency)

Naira Exchange Rate Remains Flat Against US Dollar and Euro on Black Market

The Naira remained unchanged on Tuesday despite the curfews and social unrest that grounded the nation’s economy.

Naira traded at N463 against the United States dollar on the black market on Tuesday morning, the same rate it exchanged on Thursday.

Against the European common currency, the Nigerian Naira exchanged at N540 to a single Euro.

However, the local currency dipped slightly against the British Pounds as it exchanged at N595 to a British Pound, representing a N3 decline from N592 it traded on Friday.

Social unrest amid weak economic fundamentals continued to weigh on Nigeria’s local currency, especially with Foreign Direct Investment expected to drop in the final quarter of the year through the first quarter of 2021.

This coupled with weak foreign reserves and a drop in global demand for crude oil is expected to compound Nigeria’s economic woes.

Lagos State governor, Babajide Sanwo-Olu, has said Nigeria’s commercial capital needs at least N1 trillion to fix the destruction and vandalisation that trailed the #EndSARS protest in the state. An amount equivalent to the state’s annual budget.

Experts, who spoke on the situation, said it would hurt the nation’s output and may plunge fourth-quarter GDP by as much as 6.9 percent. These rising uncertainties amid the second wave of COVID-19 and possible lockdown in key trading partners could further plunge Naira value against global counterparts in the fourth quarter of the year.

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Transparent Exchange Rate Can Boost Nigeria’s Forex Inflow

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Global debt

Transparent Exchange Rate Can Improve Nigeria’s Diaspora Forex Inflow

Experts that gathered at a virtual summit organised by Ecobank Nigeria with a theme, ‘Financial Services & Remittance Solutions for Nigerians in Diaspora: Leveraging Ecobank’s Pan-African offering’, have said Nigeria can boost foreign exchange inflow through proper engagement and a transparent exchange rate.

Mr. Patrick Akinwuntan, Managing Director of Ecobank Nigeria, in his opening speech, said growing evidence has shown that diaspora remittances were positively impacting economies of various nations in the world.

Akinwuntan put the total annual remittances to Nigeria at around $20 billion per year, saying it boosts the nation’s foreign exchange earnings.

Speaking on how these remittances can be sustained, he said constant engagement with Nigerians abroad is imperative and it is the reason Ecobank is leveraging its digital technology through Rapidtransfer App and Ecobank mobile App to ensure affordable and easy transfer of funds by Nigerians abroad to their home country.

“Our dedicated Rapidtransfer, mobile remittance app is a game-changer for the market. It enables Africans and indeed Nigerians wherever they are to easily and instantly send money to bank accounts, mobile wallets and cash collection in – and across – 33 African countries.

“Historically, the cost of sending cross-border remittances to Africa has been far too high at about 6%-7%. Similarly, the process to send funds has long been inefficient and burdensome, with customers typically needing to go physically to an agent sometimes late in the night or in poor weather with attendant discomfort and risks.

“The Rapidtransfer app remittance solution is a quick, easy and reliable digital solution that removes all of these issues. It is indeed a game-changer for Nigerians and all Africans with its sustainable and standout affordability,” he said.

Speaking on transaction charges, the Ecobank Managing Director said transfer fee range from zero to about 3 percent as compared to 6 – 7 percent charge elsewhere.

He added that the bank’s instant transfer and transparent exchange rate is a unique factor its competitors do not possess.

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Naira to Dollar Rate Today: Naira Exchanges at N463 to Dollar on Black Market

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interbank

Naira to Dollar Rate on Black Market Today Stood at N463

The Nigerian Naira to dollar rate slid slightly against the United States dollar on Tuesday on the black market as social unrest continues to weigh on the nation’s economic outlook.

The local currency lost N1 against the US dollar to N463 while against the British pound it remains pressured at N592.

This decline continues against the European Union’s common currency, the Euro. The Naira traded at N540 to a single Euro on the black market.

Naira to dollar rate plunged amid rising economic uncertainties and unclear policy path caused by both COVID-19 and government limited fiscal buffers to cushion the negative impacts of the virus on Africa’s largest economy.

This coupled with the ongoing social unrest by the Nigerian youths to force decorum across the Nigerian Police Force and call global attention to decades of systemic intimidation and harassment of innocent citizens.

The Nigerian Stock Exchange has been closing flat since Thursday and continued this week, suggesting that investors are concerns and wary of eventualities as they look to safeguard their investments.

Again, the projected third-quarter recession, low foreign revenue generation, weak consumer spending and the rising cost of living are some of the factors hurting the Nigerian Naira outlook.

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