Global financial markets were thrown into turmoil after the U.K. exit the world’s biggest market, the European Union. Pushing the pound to over 30-year low against the US dollar as investors scramble for haven assets.
The risk was further compounded by the decision of Prime Minister David Cameron and the British representative to the European Union Jonathan Hill to resign following Brexit. It is yet unknown when the UK will trigger article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty and get on with the exit process, which could take between 2 to 5 years, but the Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney in his post-Brexit statement said the apex bank has prepared for this day and as such has made provision for about 600 billion pounds to support the UK financial system and strengthens businesses to create jobs and enhance growth going forward.
On the other hand, the American labor market rebounded last week after May’s weaker than expected non-farm payroll, the unemployment claims improved by 18,000 to 259,000, which suggest moderate growth in the second quarter of the year. Although there were weakness in the housing and manufacturing sectors, but was overshadowed by the increase in demand for the US dollars due to Brexit.
On BOJ, the continuous rush for haven assets has compounded Japan’s situation, while Japan Finance Minister Taro Aso has repeatedly said the yen move is one sided, I don’t think G7 and G20 will give BOJ go ahead to intervene in the yen’s gains, considering global Risks.
This week, US first quarter final GDP, US consumer confidence index, US crude oil inventories, UK current account, Canada monthly GDP, US unemployment claims and purchasing Manager indexes (China, US, UK) are key economic factors to look out for. Here are my forex weekly pick EURUSD, AUDJPY and NZDJPY.
For the past two weeks I have been bearish on EURUSD but the global uncertainties weigh upon it, hence, the pullback before last week bearish confirmation. As long as price remains below 1.1338, I am bearish on EURUSD but with entry around 1.1090, that double as our target two weeks ago and also a price continuation below the channel. Target for the week will be 1.0714, while keeping an eye on global growth as things unfold in coming days.
The same two weeks ago I made mention of AUDJPY pair, although our target was hit at 75.83. The pair still holds considerable sell potential of around 272 pips. I remain bearish on AUDJPY as long as 78.15 resistance level holds, with 73.54 as the target.
After failing to sustain a break of the downward trendline started since last year. The pair has finally given in to Brexit pressure reach over 4-year low on Friday. This week, as long as 73.90 resistance level first established in 2008 hold. I am bearish on this pair with 69.94 as the target.
This should be traded with great caution as high volatility is expected across the board this week as investors try to decipher both ECB and BOE direction going forward. All take profit targets were hit last week.
Naira Declines Slightly on the Black Market to N474/$
Naira Drops Marginally on the Black Market to N474 Against US Dollar
Nigerian Naira declined marginally on Tuesday on the parallel market, popularly known as the black market.
The local currency declined by N1 to N474 per US dollar, down from the N473 it traded on Monday.
This was coming after Shoprite announced it would be exiting Nigeria, Africa’s largest economy. The announcement further damped the nation’s economic outlook amid the already heighten economic uncertainties.
Nigeria continues to struggle with low dollar availability after low oil prices and weak global demand for the commodity eroded the nation’s foreign revenue generation.
On the Investors and Exporters Forex window, the Naira remained pressured at N389 to a US dollar, better than the N389.25 it exchanged on Monday but more than the N381 stipulated by the Central Bank of Nigeria.
Total turnover traded by investors rose from $18.83 million traded on Monday to $24.66 million on Tuesday.
Experts have said the series of bad news emanating from the country will continue to deter potential investors and hurt capital importation necessary to boost dollar liquidity.
Forex Scarcity Weighs on Manufacturing Sector
Manufacturing Sector Suffers from Lack of Dollar Liquidity
The Director-General, Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI), Muda Yusuf, has said lack of dollar availability continues to weigh on the manufacturing sector in the first half of the year as the sector recorded its third consecutive month of contraction in the month of July.
According to Yusuf, several manufacturers had to source for forex on the black market, increasing scarcity on the already stressed section of the forex even more. This, other experts have blamed for the high Dollar-Naira exchange rate on the black market.
On Monday, the Naira was exchanged at N473 to a US dollar on the parallel market popularly known as the black market. The local currency gained N2 from the N475 it was exchanged before the Sallah holiday to N473 on Monday when the market opened.
“Across, practically, all sectors, we are experiencing cost escalation, loss of credit lines enjoyed from foreign creditors, forex remittance challenges and many more. We need an urgent response from the CBN to calm the situation and restore confidence in our foreign exchange management framework,” Yusuf stated.
The Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry said most of its 2,000 members have been hit by the dollar shortage and wide foreign exchange rate that is presently eroding their profits.
“If the situation persists, it will lead to lay-offs. If you are not producing, there will be a shortage of goods in the market, prices will go up,” he added
Naira Gains N2 Against US Dollar to N473 on Black Market
Naira Gains Against Dollar to N473 on Black Market
The Naira gained slightly on the parallel market, popularly known as the black market, on Monday to exchange at N473 per US dollar.
The local currency traded at N475 to a US dollar on Friday before gaining N2 to N473 on Monday.
This is coming on the back of dollar scarcity caused by falling foreign reserves and low oil prices.
Against the British Pound the local currency declined by N5 from N585 it traded on Friday to N590 on Monday.
This continues against the Euro single currency as the Naira depreciated by N2 to N542, down from N540 it traded on Friday.
On the Importers & Exporters Forex window, the Nigerian Naira exchanged at N389.25 against the United States dollar, slightly below the N388.33 it opened on Monday.
Investors traded $18.83 million during the trading hours of Monday on the I&E FX window.
The Central Bank of Nigeria’s exchange rate remains N381 to a United States dollar.
The apex bank had adjusted the local currency foreign exchange rate twice in the last few months to ease the pressure on the nation’s dwindling foreign reserves.
Still, the inability of the apex bank to improve the supply of the US dollar into the economy continues to weigh on the Naira value and general economic activities.
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