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Must the BoE Now Consider Larger Rate Hikes? Fed on Course to Pause? Oil Bounces Back

The central bank has raised interest rates for the last 12 meetings in a row and yet the economy is showing the kind of resilience that few would have anticipated

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financial markets

By Craig Erlam, Senior Market Analyst, UK & EMEA, OANDA

A truly devastating jobs report for BoE policymakers

It’s not often that you would refer to a jobs report that delivers a drop in unemployment, record employment and a rise in wages as horrible, but that is exactly what the Bank of England will be feeling today.

The central bank has raised interest rates for the last 12 meetings in a row and yet the economy is showing the kind of resilience that few would have anticipated. This creates an enormous headache for the MPC as it desperately wants to avoid crashing the economy in order to weaken the labour market and get wages and inflation down to more sustainable levels but that’s looking increasingly possible at these levels.

A rate hike at the next meeting is now unavoidable – assuming it wasn’t already – but a 50 basis point increase could suggest the BoE is throwing in the towel in trying to deliver 2% inflation and a soft landing for the economy. And the withdrawal of any votes for a pause will be equally important as the scale of the hike – we’ve seen two for four consecutive meetings – ​ and would be another strong sign that the BoE is very concerned.

Is a Fed pause as locked in as markets think?

What the BoE would give to now be in the Fed’s position. Inflation is falling and has been for almost a year, while core inflation is also on the decline even if it stands above 5% which is still too high. But progress is clear and there is plenty of optimism that the trend will continue, enabling the Fed to perhaps not just pause tomorrow – which markets are heavily pricing in – but maybe even bring an end to the tightening cycle altogether.

Not that they’ll be ready to acknowledge that yet but a pause will certainly be a step in the right direction. The BoE will be wondering where they’ve gone so wrong. Having been one of the first out of the traps, they may be the last to cross the finish line.

Oil bounces back amid more favourable developments

Oil prices are staging a comeback today, perhaps buoyed by the softer inflation data which may open the door to the end of the Fed’s tightening cycle and enable the soft landing it always hoped for. That said, there may be a technical element to it as well, with the price having traded around its 2023 lows in the run-up to the release.

There was always likely to be two bullish cases for crude and this only slightly aids one of those. Another unified move from OPEC+ could have been that but instead the Saudis were forced to go it alone. The other was a stronger economy which has looked increasingly unlikely recently but positive inflation reports from the US and eurozone and a rate cut in China certainly help that case. There’s still a long way to go.

Gold traders seemingly not so upbeat

Gold isn’t aboard the Fed pause train yet though, in fact, it slipped after the inflation report which may suggest not everyone is on the same page. This may be a reflection of the still stubborn core inflation number that while enabling no more hikes could keep rates higher for longer. But clearly, what the Fed does and says tomorrow could play a big role in whether we see a breakout from the range gold has traded in over recent weeks. Based on today’s response, traders may not be feeling so upbeat. The question is will the Fed change that or compound those fears?

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Energy

Port-Harcourt Refinery Set to Commence Operations by July End, IPMAN Discloses

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oil refinery

The Port-Harcourt refinery with a capacity of 210,000 barrels per day, is poised to begin operations by the end of July.

This announcement comes after several postponements and delays that have plagued the refinery’s revival efforts.

Chief Ukadike Chinedu, the National Public Relations Officer of the Independent Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN), revealed this optimistic timeline on Monday.

According to Chinedu, the refinery’s revival is expected to stimulate economic activities, reduce petroleum product prices, and ensure adequate supply in the market.

The refinery, located in Port-Harcourt, comprises two units: an older plant with a refined capacity of 60,000 barrels per day and a newer plant with a capacity of 150,000 barrels per day.

Despite previous setbacks and delays, the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, Heineken Lokpobiri, announced the mechanical completion and flare start-off of the refinery in December last year.

However, the refinery’s journey to resuming operations has been marked by challenges and setbacks. It shut down in March 2019 for the first phase of repair works, following the government’s engagement of technical advisors to oversee the refurbishment process.

Despite assurances from NNPC Limited’s Group Chief Executive Officer, Mele Kyari, in March 2024, stating that operations would commence within two weeks, the refinery faced further delays.

In an exclusive interview, Chinedu emphasized the extensive turnaround undertaken at the refinery, suggesting a complete overhaul rather than mere rehabilitation.

He expressed confidence in meeting the July deadline, citing round-the-clock efforts to ensure readiness for operations.

While acknowledging previous delays, Chinedu remained optimistic about the refinery’s imminent revival, emphasizing its potential to enhance competition in the petroleum sector and reduce product prices.

He pointed out that the refinery’s operationalization aligns with the impending commencement of petrol production by the Dangote Refinery, further emphasizing the potential benefits for Nigeria’s energy landscape.

However, Femi Soneye, the Chief Corporate Communications Officer of NNPC Limited, highlighted regulatory approvals from international bodies as the remaining hurdle to the refinery’s operational commencement.

Soneye reiterated that mechanical completion had been achieved, with all necessary infrastructure in place, awaiting regulatory clearance to commence operations.

As Nigeria navigates its energy transition and seeks to bolster local refining capacity, the imminent revival of the Port-Harcourt refinery signifies a significant milestone towards achieving energy sufficiency and economic growth.

With hopes pinned on the July deadline, stakeholders remain vigilant, anticipating the refinery’s long-awaited resurgence.

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Commodities

Nigeria Spends $2.13bn on Food Imports in 2023

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Commodities Exchange

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) disbursed $2.13 billion for food imports in 2023.

This disclosure raises concerns about the nation’s ability to achieve self-sufficiency in food production.

Despite being touted as the “food basket of Africa,” Nigeria continues to rely heavily on imported food commodities.

The CBN’s quarterly statistics revealed a consistent demand for foreign currencies for food imports throughout the year.

The significant forex release for food imports stands in stark contrast to efforts by the Nigerian government to boost local agricultural production and reduce dependence on imports.

Factors such as inadequate infrastructure, insecurity, and climate change have hindered progress in the agricultural sector, leaving the nation vulnerable to fluctuations in global food prices.

A breakdown of the disbursements shows varying amounts allocated each month, with notable spikes observed in March and November.

Despite initiatives aimed at promoting local production, including the ban on food imports by the Federal Government, the nation’s appetite for foreign food products remains unabated.

The rise in food prices has also been a cause for concern, with the average price of imported food commodities reaching a 34% increase between April 2023 and April 2024.

This surge in prices has contributed to food inflation in Nigeria and across sub-Saharan Africa, highlighting the region’s vulnerability to global market dynamics.

Experts warn that Nigeria’s heavy reliance on food imports poses significant risks to its economy and food security.

Despite efforts to promote local production, challenges such as insecurity and inadequate infrastructure continue to impede progress in the agricultural sector.

Commenting on the issue, Kabir Ibrahim, the National President of the All Farmers Association of Nigeria, acknowledged that Nigeria has made strides in reducing its dependence on certain food items but expressed concern over the increasing trend in food imports.

He highlighted the challenges faced by farmers, including insecurity and flooding, which have affected food production and contributed to the rising import bill.

Yusuf Muda, the Managing Director of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, emphasized the need for accurate data to assess Nigeria’s food import dependency accurately.

He called for a comprehensive analysis of the types of food imported and their contribution to the nation’s food consumption.

As Nigeria grapples with the challenges of food security and economic stability, addressing the root causes of its reliance on food imports remains a critical priority.

Efforts to strengthen the agricultural sector, improve infrastructure, and mitigate climate change impacts are essential for achieving long-term food security and economic resilience.

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Crude Oil

NNPCL CEO Optimistic as Nigeria’s Oil Production Edges Closer to 1.7mbpd

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Crude Oil

Mele Kyari, the Group Chief Executive Officer of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL), has expressed optimism as the nation’s oil production approaches 1.7 million barrels per day (mbpd).

Kyari’s positive outlook comes amidst ongoing efforts to address security challenges and enhance infrastructure crucial for oil production and distribution.

Speaking at a stakeholders’ engagement between the Nigerian Association of Petroleum Explorationists (NAPE) and NNPCL in Lagos, Kyari highlighted the significance of combating insecurity in the oil and gas sector to facilitate increased production.

Kyari said there is a need for substantial improvements in infrastructure to support oil production.

He noted that Nigeria’s crude oil production has been hampered by pipeline vandalism, prompting alternative transportation methods like barging and trucking of petroleum products, which incur additional costs and logistical challenges.

Despite these challenges, Kyari revealed that Nigeria’s oil production is steadily rising, presently approaching 1.7mbpd.

He attributed this progress to ongoing efforts to combat pipeline vandalism and enhance infrastructure resilience.

Kyari stressed the importance of taking control of critical infrastructure to ensure uninterrupted oil production and distribution.

One of the key projects highlighted by Kyari is the Ajaokuta-Kaduna-Kano (AKK) gas pipeline, which plays a crucial role in enhancing gas supply infrastructure.

He noted that completing the final phase of the AKK pipeline, particularly the 2.7 km river crossing, would facilitate the flow of gas from the eastern to the western regions of Nigeria, supporting industrial growth and energy security.

Addressing industry stakeholders, including NAPE representatives, Kyari reiterated the importance of collaboration in advancing Nigeria’s oil and gas sector.

He emphasized the need for technical training, data availability, and policy incentives to drive innovation and growth in the industry.

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