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UK Economy Continues to Show Resilience, Chinese Trade Data Disappoints

The UK economy posted only a small contraction in May which was much better than forecast as the country continues to show strong resilience in the face of significant pressures.

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Bundles of Euro Currency and Sterling Notes

By Craig Erlam, Senior Market Analyst, UK & EMEA, OANDA

The UK economy posted only a small contraction in May which was much better than forecast as the country continues to show strong resilience in the face of significant pressures.

That resilience has helped to sustain inflation at much higher levels than the Bank of England was hoping for which has in turn led to more rate hikes and markets pricing in many more to come.

The economy has basically stagnated now for the last year which is still much better than what many feared 12 months ago. We could see a little more growth going forward as lower energy and food bills free up some disposable income but with rates now very high and rising, costs for many are about to rise substantially, possibly more than offsetting any of those benefits.

Higher rates may also weigh on growth going forward if they impact household spending decisions, by encouraging more saving in anticipation of higher interest costs or encouraging them to pay down debt, etc. Time will tell to what extent that is the case as spending has been more resilient than expected until now.

Another disappointing batch of Chines trade data

Chinese imports and exports slumped at a faster pace than expected in June in another sign of weakening global trade. We’ve seen this trend all year and clearly, conditions are not improving, quite the opposite. This will maintain pressure on the economy with domestic demand also disappointing, as seen by the weaker import numbers. Targeted stimulus may be needed sooner rather than later or the country’s once seemingly modest 5% growth target may be at risk of being missed.

Oil rally stalling around $80

Oil prices are a little higher again in early trade, seemingly still buoyed by yesterday’s US inflation report, and are continuing to push for a convincing break above $80 in Brent crude. It is trading a little above $80 this morning and did at times yesterday, but rather than generating fresh momentum, it seems to instead be running on fumes.

That would be understandable. After all, it’s rallied around 12% in two weeks, primarily on the back of the extension to the Saudi one million barrel cut to the end of August, alongside Russia’s 500,000 barrel export reduction. Some profit-taking at these levels wouldn’t be hugely surprising and may have come sooner if not for the US CPI data.

Gold holding gains but a few big tests lie above

Gold is also trading marginally higher today and struggling around a notable resistance level, $1,960. It broke through $1,940 yesterday on the back of the inflation numbers and has now entered retracement territory where a few key levels will be put to the test.

From a technical standpoint, those are the 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels – May highs to June lows – which happen to fall around £$1,960, $1,980, and $2,000, respectively. A break of these may indicate that gold is back in bullish territory, although the price may face some resistance in the interim.

No change for bitcoin after the US inflation report

Bitcoin was very choppy around the inflation release yesterday but ultimately it’s had little sustainable impact on the price. It’s settled a little lower after some big fluctuations but is still well within the $30,000-$31,000 range it has broadly traded in for the last few weeks. That consolidation will probably come more as comfort to crypto bulls but at this stage, it isn’t particularly clear in which direction it will break next. That may depend on the news flow in the coming weeks, with some positive news on the ETF front potentially giving the crypto space another boost.

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Crude Oil

Oil Prices Surge as Hurricane Francine Disrupts U.S. Gulf Production, Brent and WTI See Gains

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Crude Oil - Investors King

Oil prices rose on Friday, extending a rally sparked by output disruptions in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, where Hurricane Francine forced producers to evacuate platforms before it hit the coast of Louisiana.

Brent crude oil, against which Nigerian crude oil is priced, rose by 34 cents, or 0.5%, to $72.31 per barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose by 38 cents, or 0.6%, to $69.35 a barrel.

If those gains hold, both benchmarks will break a streak of weekly declines, despite a rough start that saw Brent crude dip below $70 a barrel on Tuesday for the first time since late 2021. At current levels, Brent is set for a weekly increase of about 1.7%, and WTI is set to gain over 2%.

Oil producers assessed damages and conducted safety checks on Thursday as they prepared to resume operations in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, as estimates emerged of the loss of supply from Francine.

UBS analysts forecast output in the region in September will fall by 50,000 barrels-per-day (bpd) month-over-month, while FGE analysts estimated a 60,000 bpd drop to 1.69 million bpd.

The supply shock helped oil prices recover from a sharp selloff earlier in the week, with demand concerns dragging benchmarks to multi-year lows.

Both the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and the International Energy Agency this week lowered their demand growth forecasts, citing economic struggles in China, the world’s largest oil importer.

A shift towards lower-carbon fuels is also weighing on China’s oil demand, speakers at the APPEC conference said this week.

Official data showed nearly 42% of the region’s oil output was shut-in as of Thursday.

China’s crude oil imports averaged 3.1% lower this year from January through August compared to the same period last year, customs data showed on Tuesday.

“Flagging domestic oil demand in China has become a hot topic and was further underlined by disappointing August trade data,” FGE analysts said in a note to clients.

Demand concerns have grown in the United States as well. U.S. gasoline and distillate futures traded at multi-year lows this week, as analysts highlighted weaker-than-expected demand in the top petroleum consuming country.

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Crude Oil

Oil Prices Surge as Hurricane Threat Looms Over U.S. Gulf Coast

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Oil jumped in Asian trading on Monday as a potential hurricane system approached the U.S. Gulf Coast, and as markets recovered from a selloff following weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data on Friday.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose 72 cents, or 1.06%, to $68.39 a barrel while Brent crude oil was up 71 cents, or 1%, at $71.77 a barrel.

Prices had gained as much as $1 during early Asian trading before pulling back.

Analysts said the bounce was in part a reaction to a potential hurricane in the U.S. Gulf Coast.

A weather system in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is forecast to become a hurricane before it reaches the northwestern U.S. Gulf Coast, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said on Sunday.

The U.S. Gulf Coast accounts for some 60% of U.S. refining capacity.

“Sentiment recovered somewhat from last week’s selloff,” said independent market analyst Tina Teng.

At the Friday close, Brent had dropped 10% on the week to the lowest level since December 2021, while WTI fell 8% to its lowest close since June 2023 on weak jobs data in the U.S.

A highly anticipated U.S. government jobs report showed nonfarm payrolls increased less than market watchers had expected in August, rising by 142,000, and the July figure was downwardly revised to an increase of 89,000, which was the smallest gain since an outright decline in December 2020.

A decline in the jobless rate points to the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by just 25 basis points this month rather than a half-point rate cut, analysts said.

Lower interest rates typically increase oil demand by spurring economic growth and making oil cheaper for holders of non-dollar currencies.

But weak demand continued to cap price gains.

The weakness in China is driven by economic slowdown and inventory destocking, Jeff Currie, chief strategy officer of energy pathways at U.S. investment giant Carlyle Group, told the APPEC energy conference in Singapore on Monday.

Refining margins in Asia have slipped to their lowest seasonal levels since 2020 on weak demand from the two largest economies.

Fuel oil exports to the U.S. Gulf Coast fell to the lowest level since January 2019 last month on weaker refining margins.

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Crude Oil

Oil Prices Rebound on OPEC+ Output Delay Talks and U.S. Inventory Drop

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Oil prices made a modest recovery on Thursday on the expectations that OPEC+ may delay planned production increases and the drop in U.S. crude inventories.

Brent crude oil, against which Nigerian oil is priced, rose by 66 cents, or 0.9% to $73.36 per barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude appreciated by 64 cents or 0.9% to $69.84 per barrel.

The rebound in oil prices was a result of the American Petroleum Institute (API) report that revealed that the U.S. crude oil inventories had fallen by a surprising 7.431 million barrels last week, against analysts 1 million barrel decline projection.

The decline signals better than projected demand for the commodity in the United States of America and offers some relief for traders on global demand.

John Evans, an analyst at PVM Oil Associates, attributed the rebound in crude oil prices to the API report.

He said, “There is a pause of breath and light reprieve for oil prices.”

Also, discussions within the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, collectively known as OPEC+, are fueling speculation about a potential delay in planned output increases.

The group was initially expected to increase production by 180,000 a day in October 2024.

However, concerns over softening demand in China and potential developments in Libya’s oil production have prompted the group to reconsider its strategy.

Despite the recent rebound, analysts caution that lingering uncertainties around global oil demand may continue to weigh on prices in the near term.

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