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Weak Global Trade Weighs on Chinese Exports, Australian Growth Slows, Oil Slips Further

European indices and US futures look a little flat following a mixed session in Asia overnight, as Chinese trade data failed to inspire while Australian GDP pointed to further pain as the RBA continues raising rates.

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By Craig Erlam, Senior Market Analyst, UK & EMEA, OANDA

European indices and US futures look a little flat following a mixed session in Asia overnight, as Chinese trade data failed to inspire while Australian GDP pointed to further pain as the RBA continues raising rates.

Disappointing trade figures increase calls for stimulus

Chinese trade data offered further evidence of weakening demand both domestically and abroad, with exports falling particularly hard last month. A 7.5% decline far exceeded the -0.4% expected, while imports actually beat forecasts, albeit while also falling 4.5% in May.

Weaker global trade is not a new story but it is surprising how quickly China’s reopening boost has faded, with backlogs of work supporting export numbers until now even as other countries have continued to see demand for their goods wane.

With China’s reopening boom flagging so quickly, pressure is set to intensify on the leadership to announce new stimulus measures in a bid to revitalize the economy again and achieve its 5% growth target. That may initially come in the form of rate cuts, perhaps targeted to those sectors under the most pressure with authorities so far reluctant to engage in broad-based easing.

Australian growth slows as high interest rates bite

The Australian economy is slowing amid cost-of-living pressures, weaker household spending, and higher interest rates. GDP in the first quarter slipped to 0.2%, down from 0.6% in the final quarter of last year and below expectations. High-interest rates and inflation are hurting household finances and the economy is now suffering. This week’s RBA hike is going to compound this and unless we see signs of price pressures easing, there may be more to come.

Oil remains under pressure after Saudi cut

Oil prices are falling again today as Saudi Arabia’s attempt to dress up a unilateral move as a group cut fails to have the desired impact. Crude is now trading below the level it ended at Friday which suggests that, despite the knee-jerk reaction on Monday, traders were hedging against broader action from OPEC+ and got a light version of the deal they feared.

While Saudi Arabia remains price driven, the market is more concerned with the economic outlook, and the rest of the alliance seemingly isn’t interested in taking more action in anticipation of what may come. The commitment from the start of the next year could easily change depending on what unfolds whereas markets are forced to respond to current risks and as far as the economy is concerned, they are tilted to the downside.

Gold awaiting further data following inconclusive reports

Gold is treading water again this morning, sitting right in the middle of the roughly $1,940-$1,980 range it found itself in these past weeks. The economic data we’ve had recently has been far from conclusive and that creates a lot of uncertainty around the policy path for interest rates and therefore appetite for the yellow metal.

Inflation has proven to be more stubborn than hoped while the labour market remains resilient, a combination that doesn’t point to US rate cuts later this year as traders currently hope. This is a big summer and all of that may soon change but for now, that uncertainty is creating this choppiness and range trading we’re seeing in gold.

Will the Binance and Coinbase sagas bring regulatory clarity to the space?

It’s been an explosive couple of days in the crypto space, with the SEC targeting Binance and Coinbase with lawsuits containing various allegations that have rattled the industry. Bitcoin initially fell more than 5% on Monday before recovering largely on Tuesday and now it’s trading only marginally lower, just below $27,000. While the initial response to the action was negative, it didn’t exactly come as a shock and the companies will have been preparing for such a move for some time.

Given the size of the two exchanges and the recent scarring from the FTX scandal, there will obviously be some concern about what comes next. But one good thing that will hopefully come from this is regulatory clarity which has been lacking for years now.

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Markets

Ogun Govt Begins Sale Of ₦40,000 Rice, vows to Take Subsidized Foods to LGAs

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The Ogun State government under the leadership of Dapo Abiodun has commenced the sale of 50kg bags of rice for 40,000 Naira in the state.

Investors King reported that the subsidized rice program is part of the strategies by President Bola Tinubu’s government to address the economic hardship in the country.

Governor Dapo Abiodun, during the launching ceremony of the initiative held at the Arcade ground, Abeokuta, the Ogun State capital, revealed plans by his administration to extend the subsidized food initiative to the twenty local government areas of the state.

He noted that the subsidized food initiative would not be limited to rice only, other items including garri, rice, and beans would be available for purchase at significantly reduced prices.

The governor said, “We will soon be implementing our own version of this scheme from each local government, meaning we will implement this across the twenty local government areas of the state to deepen the reach into our grassroots.

“We will be selling food items like garri, rice, and beans at heavily subsidized prices.”

“The distribution will include various groups such as federal and state civil servants, private sector organizations, craftsmen, trade unions, NGOs, student groups, market vendors, community development groups, and religious and traditional groups,” he added.

He reassured the state’s citizens that the Head of Service’s office, the Ministry of Agriculture, and the NSA’s office had created a comprehensive plan to ensure the fair distribution of the product throughout the state’s 20 local government areas.

The governor emphasized the need for accountability, noting that cash payments would not be accepted. 

However, he revealed that payments would be made via Point of Sales (PoS) machines.

Abiodun warned against double registration, adding that beneficiaries’ NIN will be verified after a physical screening at the point of sale.

According to the governor, the launch of the subsidized rice sale in Abeokuta for Ogun Central Senatorial District, Ilaro for Ogun West Senatorial District, and Ijebu-Ode for Ogun East Senatorial District will commence immediately.

“To ensure accountability, there will be no cash payments; payment will be made through Point of Sales (PoS) machines, and beneficiaries will undergo physical verification at the point of sale.

“No double registration will be allowed; NIN will be verified to ensure that we prevent any sharp practices.

“This distribution will be carried out transparently and fairly, ensuring that these palliatives reach those we have targeted,” he said.

Governor Abiodun concluded by describing the initiative as a sign of President Tinubu’s dedication to addressing the problem of rising food prices and cushioning the effect of the fuel subsidy removal.

On October 2, the Federal Government announced that Lagos, Kano, and Borno will be the next states that will benefit from its subsidized rice program.

According to a director at the Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security, plans are already underway to roll out the food subsidy program in these states.

 

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Crude Oil

High US Fuel Demand, Middle East Risk Buoy Oil Prices

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The price of major oil benchmarks jumped more than 3 percent on Thursday following increased fuel demand in the United States due to Hurricane Milton and Middle East supply risks.

Brent crude oil, against which Nigerian oil is priced, rose $2.82, or 3.7 percent to settle at $79.40 a barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose $2.61, or 3.6 percent, to settle at $75.85.

In the US, the world’s largest oil producer and consumer, Hurricane Milton hit Florida and knocked out power to more than 3.4 million homes and terminals.

Market analysts noted that the closures of several product terminals, delayed tanker truck deliveries and disrupted pipeline movement will likely be affecting supplies well into next week given broad based power outages.

This will serve as a positive news for the market as disruptions generally lend support.

Recall that crude benchmarks spiked earlier this month after Iran launched more than 180 missiles against Israel on October 1.

This raised the prospect of retaliation against Iranian oil facilities. Iran is backing several groups fighting Israel, including Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza and the Houthis in Yemen.

However, since Israel is yet to respond, crude benchmarks have eased.

Despite this, investors remained wary, given that Israel has vowed to wait and strike at the best time.

Israel has continued to fight in Lebanon as it Reuters reported that a strike on central Beirut on Thursday night killed 11 people and wounded at least 48.

In Yemen, the Houthis said they targeted vessels in the Red Sea and Indian Ocean in solidarity with the Palestinians in the war between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip.

Meanwhile, Gulf states are lobbying the US to stop Israel from attacking Iran’s oil sites because they are concerned their own oil facilities could come under fire from Iran’s allies if the conflict escalates.

Support came as investors express confidence that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates in November after data showed an increase in weekly jobless claims and an annual rise in inflation that was the lowest since February 2021.

The US central bank started to lower interest rates in September after hiking rates aggressively in 2022 and 2023.

 

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Petrol

NLC Slams NNPC Price Hike, Warns of Increased Poverty and Job Losses

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The Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) has reacted to the recent increase in the price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) popularly known as petrol by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC).

The union, via a statement signed by its president, Joe Ajaero, on Wednesday, revealed that the increase will further deepen poverty in the country, reduce production capacities, and render many people jobless.

The NLC president asked why NNPC, a private company, is fixing the price of petrol, a move he described as ‘a hegemonic monopoly’.

Ajaero called for the intervention of the Federal Government, adding that the government should present a roadmap for inclusive economic growth and national development.

Furthermore, the NLC called for the immediate reversal of the price increase.

He said “Even following the logic of market forces, we find it an aberration that a private company (NNPCL) is the one fixing prices and projecting itself as a hegemonic monopoly.

“We challenge the government to go to the drawing board and present us with a blueprint for inclusive economic growth and national development instead of this spasmodic ad hocism and palliative policy.

“It needs no stating the fact that the latest wave of increase has grossly altered the calculations of Nigerians once again at a time they were reluctantly coming to terms with their new realities. It will further deepen poverty as production capacities dip and more jobs are lost with multidimensional negative effects.

“In light of this, we urge the government to immediately reverse this rate hike as previous increases did not produce any good results. People only got poorer. But more fundamentally, the government should be bold enough to tell Nigerians in advance the destination it wants to take the country.”

Investors King reported that the NNPC officially announced an increase in the ex-depot price of fuel.

This latest development was detailed in a new price list by the NNPC on Wednesday, October 9.

While the ex-depot price in Lagos stands at ₦1,010 per litre, marketers in Port Harcourt will buy at ₦1,045 and in Calabar is now set at ₦1,050 per litre.

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