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Air Transport Grew by 50.7% in Q1 2022 – Coronation Merchant Bank

Air transport grew by 50.7% y/y in Q1 ’22 compared to the contraction of -11.8% recorded in Q1 ’21.

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Omicron

The latest national accounts released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) show the continuous recovery of the air transport sector from the adverse effects of the COVID19 pandemic. Air transport grew by 50.7% y/y in Q1 ’22 compared to the contraction of -11.8% recorded in Q1 ’21.

This was the second fastest-growing segment in Q1 ’22, following rail transport (124.5% y/y). We note that this is from a low base.

Given that the sector was one of the most impacted sectors during the pandemic, the easing of COVID19-related restrictions globally has contributed to its recovery. The current geopolitical crisis is weighing heavily on domestic airline operators. The Russia-Ukraine crisis has led to a surge in oil prices globally (Russia controls c.10% of the global oil supply).

This has been transmitted through higher energy, oil and gas prices, worsening the already elevated inflation in advanced and emerging economies. Following the US ban on Russian oil imports, oil prices surged above USD100 per barrel to hit their highest level since 2008. As at end-May ’22, Brent crude stood at USD122.8/b.

In Nigeria, aviation fuel is a deregulated product and as such, its price is dependent on movements in global oil price and the foreign exchange rate among others. Aviation fuel has increased from N190/litre in 2021 to N700/litre in May ‘22. The surge is placing pressure on operational costs. Based on our channel checks, aviation fuel accounted for 40% of operating cost in 2021. However, this has now risen to 95% of total operational cost.

This increase in operating cost has resulted in upticks in ticket fares across airline operators within the country and has also led to a significant decline in the frequency of domestic flights.

Based on data from the NBS “Transport Fare Watch” series, the average airfare for select routes (one-way) increased by 52.4% y/y from N36,409 (USD87) recorded in April ’21 to N55,501 (USD132) in April ’22. On a m/m basis, it rose by 18.6% from N46,810 (USD112) recorded in March ’22 to N55,501 (USD132) in April ’22.

On a zonal basis, North-Central recorded the highest average airfare (N57,552) for select routes (one-way) in April ‘22, followed by North-East (N56,800), South-South (N55,586), North-West (N54,760), South-West (N54,338), and South-East (N53,402).

To put the current strain in perspective, in May ‘22, the Airline Operators of Nigeria (AON) announced a shutdown of operations within the industry due to the price surge in aviation fuel (Jet-A1) and uptick in other operating costs. However, following discussions with government officials, AON suspended its plan to shut down operations.

Coronation Merchant Bank understand that the NNPC agreed to supply Jet A1 to marketers nominated by airline operators for three months and at a fixed price of N480/litre. However, the airlines are to apply for aviation fuel import licenses so they can import directly to reduce reliance on NNPC.

The potential impact of a prolonged Russia-Ukraine crisis is likely to stretch the current challenges for domestic airlines. Furthermore, there are limits to the cost that can be passed on to the consumers, given that inflationary pressure continuously weighs heavy on consumer pockets.

The subsidy route seems unsustainable as the FGN is currently grappling with costs associated with the ongoing fuel subsidy (PMS). Forward thinking solutions would include innovative mechanisms that can optimise operations and accommodate rising operating costs within the aviation industry.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Economy

Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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Gas-Pipeline

The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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Economy

IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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Economy

South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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