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CBN Survey Shows 12-month Interest Rates Rise

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  • CBN Survey Shows 12-month Interest Rates Rise

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has released the second quarter 2018 Inflation Attitudes Survey, which showed that interest rates had risen in the last 12 months by 0.8 points to 32.4 points. The first quarter figure stood at 31.6 points.

The survey, conducted from May 19 to June 7, 2018 through a sample size of 2070 households randomly selected from 207 Enumeration Areas (EAs) across the country, had a response rate of 80.4 per cent.

On the other hand, 7.4 per cent of respondents believed that interest rates had fallen, 17 per cent of the respondents were of the opinion that the rates stayed about the same in the last 12 months, while 43.2 per cent of the households had no idea. The result revealed that more households perceived that interest on bank loans and savings rose over the past 12 months.

On the expected change in interest rates on bank loans and savings over the next 12 months, more respondents (26.6 per cent) were of the view that the rates will rise, while 15.6 per cent believed that they will rates fall.

According to the survey, a net rise value of 10.9 per cent was recorded compared to 9.4 per cent attained in the previous quarter. About 57.8 per cent of the respondents either expected no change or had no idea.

Similarly, the respondents were asked whether it would be best for the Nigerian economy for interest rates to rise or fall. The results showed that 37.2 per cent indicated that it would be best for the economy if interest rates fell, while 12.8 per cent opted for higher interest rates. The results further revealed that 13.2 per cent would make no difference, while 35 per cent had no idea . Also, these responses revealed that most of the respondents favored lower interest rates for the Nigerian economy.

Responses on what the impact a rise in interest rates in the short and medium terms would have on prices 40 per cent agreed that a rise in interest rates would make prices in the street rise slowly in the short term, as against 14.0 per cent that disagreed. While in the medium term, 39.2 per cent agreed that a rise in interest rates would make prices in the street rise slowly, 13.5 per cent disagreed .

Similarly, respondents were asked to choose between raising interest rates in order to keep inflation down, and keeping interest rates down to allow prices to rise. Responding, 26.3 per cent prefer red interest rates to rise in order to keep inflation down compared to 28.0 per cent who said they would prefer prices to rise faster, while 45.6 per cent had no idea.

The survey showed that these responses suggest that given a trade-off, more of the respondents would prefer higher interest rates to higher inflation, which is suggestive of the respondent households’ support for the bank’s price stability objective.

To assess whether people are aware of the way monetary policy works in Nigeria, respondents were asked if they knew which group of people met to set Nigeria’s monetary policy rate.

Responding, 27.6 per cent felt it was the Monetary Policy Committee, 10 per cent felt it was the Federal Ministry of Finance, 17.0 per cent believed it was the government, 4.7 per cent felt it was the National Assembly, while 2.3 and 38.3 per cent answered ‘others’ and ‘do not know’, respectively.

More so, when asked to identify which group mostly influenced the direction of interest rates, the result indicated that majority of the respondents (40.6 per cent) were aware that the Central Bank of Nigeria influences the direction of interest rates.

About 8.7 per cent mentioned the ministers, 4.3 and 10.8 per cent was of the opinion that civil servants and Banks influence the rates, respectively, while 35.4 per cent had no idea. On what best described the Monetary Policy Committee, 20.6 per cent felt it was influenced by the government, 12.6 per cent felt it was the Federal Ministry of Finance, and 8.1 per cent believed that it was the national assembly, while 10.7 per cent thought it was not influenced by any arm of government and 47.4 per cent had no idea.

Respondents were asked if they were satisfied or dissatisfied with the CBN’s management of interest rates in Nigeria.

They were “asked what would become of the Nigerian economy if prices started to rise faster than they do now”. “The survey result showed that 49.7 per cent of the respondents believed that the economy would end up weaker, 11.0 per cent stated that it would be stronger, 17.7 per cent of the respondents believed it would make a little difference, while 21.5 per cent did not,” the survey said.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Finance

Presidential Committee to Exempt 95% of Informal Sector from Taxes

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tax relief

The Presidential Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms Committee (PFPTRC) has unveiled plans to exempt a significant portion of the informal sector from taxation.

Chaired by Taiwo Oyedele, the committee aims to alleviate the burden of multiple taxation on small businesses and low-income individuals while fostering economic growth.

The announcement came following the close-out retreat of the PFPTRC in Abuja, where Oyedele addressed reporters over the weekend.

He said the committee is committed to easing the tax burden, particularly for those operating within the informal sector that constitutes a substantial portion of Nigeria’s economy.

Under the proposed reforms, approximately 95% of the informal sector would be granted tax exemptions, sparing them from obligations such as income tax and value-added tax (VAT).

Oyedele stressed the importance of supporting individuals in the informal sector and recognizing their efforts to earn a legitimate living and their contribution to economic development.

The decision was informed by extensive deliberations and data analysis with the committee advocating for a fairer and more equitable tax system.

Oyedele highlighted that individuals earning up to N25 million annually would be exempted from various taxes, aligning with the committee’s commitment to relieving financial pressure on small businesses and low-income earners.

Moreover, the committee emphasized the need for tax reforms to address the prevailing issue of multiple taxation, which disproportionately affects small businesses and the vulnerable population.

By exempting the majority of the informal sector from taxation, the committee aims to stimulate economic growth and promote entrepreneurship.

The proposal for tax reforms is expected to be submitted to the National Assembly by the third quarter of this year, following consultations with the private sector and internal approvals.

The reforms encompass a broad range of measures, including executive orders, regulations, and constitutional amendments, aimed at creating a more conducive environment for business and investment.

In addition to tax exemptions, the committee plans to introduce executive orders and regulations to streamline tax processes and enhance compliance. This includes a new withholding tax regulation exempting small businesses from certain tax obligations, pending ministerial approval.

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Banking Sector

CBN Governor Vows to Tackle High Inflation, Signals Prolonged High Interest Rates

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Central Bank of Nigeria - Investors King

The Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Dr. Olayemi Cardoso, has pledged to employ decisive measures, including maintaining high interest rates for as long as necessary.

This announcement comes amidst growing concerns over the country’s soaring inflation rates, which have posed significant economic challenges in recent times.

Speaking in an interview with the Financial Times, Cardoso emphasized the unwavering commitment of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to take whatever steps are essential to rein in inflation.

He underscored the urgency of the situation, stating that there is “every indication” that the MPC is prepared to implement stringent measures to curb the upward trajectory of inflation.

“They will continue to do what has to be done to ensure that inflation comes down,” Cardoso affirmed, highlighting the determination of the CBN to confront the inflationary pressures gripping the economy.

The CBN’s proactive stance on inflation was evident from the outset of the year, with the MPC taking bold steps to tighten monetary policy.

The committee notably raised the benchmark lending rate by 400 basis points during its February meeting, further increasing it to 24.75% in March.

Looking ahead, the next MPC meeting, scheduled for May 20-21, will likely serve as a platform for further deliberations on monetary policy adjustments in response to evolving economic conditions.

Financial analysts have projected continued tightening measures by the MPC in light of stubbornly high inflation rates. Meristem Securities, for instance, anticipates a further uptick in headline inflation for April, underscoring the persistent inflationary pressures facing the economy.

Despite the necessity of maintaining high interest rates to address inflationary concerns, Cardoso acknowledged the potential drawbacks of such measures.

He expressed hope that the prolonged high rates would not dampen investment and production activities in the economy, recognizing the need for a delicate balance in monetary policy decisions.

“Hiking interest rates obviously has had a dampening effect on the foreign exchange market, so that has begun to moderate,” Cardoso remarked, highlighting the multifaceted impacts of monetary policy adjustments.

Addressing recent fluctuations in the value of the naira, Cardoso reassured investors of the central bank’s commitment to market stability.

He emphasized the importance of returning to orthodox monetary policies, signaling a departure from previous unconventional approaches to monetary management.

As the CBN governor charts a course towards stabilizing the economy and combating inflation, his steadfast resolve underscores the gravity of the challenges facing Nigeria’s monetary authorities.

In the face of daunting inflationary pressures, the commitment to decisive action offers a glimmer of hope for achieving stability and sustainable economic growth in the country.

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Banking Sector

NDIC Managing Director Reveals: Only 25% of Customers’ Deposits Insured

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Retail banking

The Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of the Nigeria Deposit Insurance Corporation (NDIC), Bello Hassan, has revealed that a mere 25% of customers’ deposits are insured by the corporation.

This revelation has sparked concerns about the vulnerability of depositors’ funds and raised questions about the adequacy of regulatory safeguards in Nigeria’s banking sector.

Speaking on the sidelines of the 2024 Sensitisation Seminar for justices of the court of appeal in Lagos, themed ‘Building Strong Depositors Confidence in Banks and Other Financial Institutions through Adjudication,’ Hassan shed light on the limited coverage of deposit insurance for bank customers.

Hassan addressed recent concerns surrounding the hike in deposit insurance coverage and emphasized the need for periodic reviews to ensure adequacy and credibility.

He explained that the decision to increase deposit insurance limits was based on various factors, including the average deposit size, inflation impact, GDP per capita, and exchange rate fluctuations.

Despite the coverage extending to approximately 98% of depositors, Hassan underscored the critical gap between the number of depositors covered and the value of deposits insured.

He stressed that while nearly all depositors are accounted for, only a quarter of the total value of deposits is protected, leaving a significant portion of funds vulnerable to risk.

“The coverage is just 25% of the total value of the deposits,” Hassan affirmed, highlighting the disparity between the number of depositors covered and the actual value of deposits within the banking system.

Moreover, Hassan addressed concerns about moral hazard, emphasizing that the presence of uninsured deposits would incentivize banks to exercise market discipline and mitigate risks associated with reckless behavior.

“The quantum of deposits not covered will enable banks to exercise market discipline and eliminate the issue of moral hazards,” Hassan stated, suggesting that the lack of full coverage serves as a safeguard against irresponsible banking practices.

However, Hassan’s revelations have prompted calls for greater regulatory oversight and transparency within Nigeria’s financial institutions. Critics argue that the current level of deposit insurance falls short of providing adequate protection for depositors, especially in the event of bank failures or financial crises.

The disclosure comes amid ongoing efforts by regulatory authorities to bolster depositor confidence and strengthen the resilience of the banking sector. With concerns mounting over the stability of Nigeria’s financial system, stakeholders are urging for proactive measures to address vulnerabilities and enhance consumer protection.

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